Exagen Inc (XGN) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $109M

Below-average quality, and screening another 54% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range ($2.07 to $3.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.36 – $17.48 · fair‑value band $2.07 – $3.90 · the $6.87 price screens above the $3.19 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

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Analysis

Exagen Inc (XGN) currently trades at $6.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.19, implying the stock looks roughly 53.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Exagen Inc generated revenue of $68.4M at a net margin of -29.5%. Revenue grew 11.7% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $6.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2.07 (bear case) to $3.90 (bull case); at $6.87, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 165% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -54%, XGN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($4.55) versus Asset-Based ($0.4800). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Exagen Inc. designs, develops, and commercializes various testing products under the AVISE brand in the United States. The company enables healthcare providers to care for patients through the diagnosis, prognosis, and monitoring of complex rheumatic, and autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid …

Full company description

Exagen Inc. designs, develops, and commercializes various testing products under the AVISE brand in the United States. The company enables healthcare providers to care for patients through the diagnosis, prognosis, and monitoring of complex rheumatic, and autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The company's lead testing product is AVISE CTD that enables differential diagnosis for patients presenting with symptoms indicative of various connective tissue diseases (CTDs) and other related diseases with overlapping symptoms. The company offers AVISE Lupus platform, a cornerstone of the SLE assessment that begins by quantifying the level of CB-CAPs biomarkers (EC4d and BC4d) in the patient's blood; and AVISE APS that aids in the diagnosis and management of APS. In addition, it provides AVISE Vasculitis AAV, which utilizes a testing panel of individual analytes to provide physicians with results in the assessment and monitoring of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody associated vasculitis; AVISE Anti-Histone, a test for autoantibodies to histone proteins; AVISE SLE Prognostic, a panel of autoantibodies for assessing the potential for complications affecting the kidney, brain, and cardiovascular system; and AVISE Anti-CarP, a biomarker-driven RA prognostic test. Further, the company offers AVISE SLE Monitor, a blood test that employs CB-CAPs technology; AVISE MTX, a patented and validated blood test; and AVISE HCQ, a blood test to monitor levels of hydroxychloroquine. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Allegheny Health Network (AHN) Research Institute to develop T-Cell biomarkers. The company was formerly known as Exagen Diagnostics, Inc. and changed its name to Exagen Inc. in January 2019. Exagen Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Vista, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Exagen Inc reported revenue of $66.6M in FY2025 versus $48.3M in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$20.0M in FY2025.

XGN screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →

Peer Group

Diagnostics & Research · 135 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.