Sino AG (XTP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Sino AG €12.02, price €120, upside -90.0%, quality 79 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Quality Too ExpensiveExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.
!Fair value €12.02 · Strongly overvalued (−90.0%)
✓Quality 79/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +1.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.6% net margin (FY2025)
✓generates free cash flow
!1.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Mixed vs. peers(5/9)
!Moderate moat48/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range €23.58 – €121.50 · fair‑value band €9.02 – €15.03 · the €120.00 price screens above the €12.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Sino AG provides investment and order placement services in Germany. It also provides brokerage; account and custody account; course supply; mortgage and credit; margin; and short selling services, as well as operates MX-PRO trading system. The company was formerly known as sino Wertpapierhandelsgesellschaft mbH.
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Sino AG provides investment and order placement services in Germany. It also provides brokerage; account and custody account; course supply; mortgage and credit; margin; and short selling services, as well as operates MX-PRO trading system. The company was formerly known as sino Wertpapierhandelsgesellschaft mbH. Sino AG was founded in 1998 and is based in Düsseldorf, Germany.
Stock analysis
Sino AG (XTP) currently trades at €120.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.02, implying the stock looks roughly 898.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €30.51 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the €120.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €3.26, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €9.02 (bear) to €15.03 (bull), the price of €120.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Sino AG reported revenue of €9.5M in FY2025 versus €15.3M in FY2021, a compound −11.3%/yr. Reported net income was €1.0M in FY2025, compounding −70.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €280M · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 1.08 · EPS (TTM) €11.78 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 10.6% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −90%, XTP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€3.26 to €32.67). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear €9.02Fair Value €12.02Bull €15.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€10.26 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−56.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−58.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−58.0% vs 5.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−29% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +43.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 460 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−90.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.9% · Above median
Return on assets6.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth69.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.2× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF123.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 94
PAST (return on equity)31· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)24· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sino AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XTP
Frequently asked questions
Is Sino AG (XTP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.02 versus a price of €120.00, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XTP?
Our model-based fair value for Sino AG is €12.02 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €120.00.
What is the quality score of XTP?
Sino AG has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sino AG (XTP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.02 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.02, optimistic scenario €15.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sino AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.02, about −90% upside versus a price of €120.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €9.02, optimistic scenario €15.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sino AG (XTP)?
Sino AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €12.7M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Sino AG pay a dividend?
Sino AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sino AG (XTP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sino AG would have to grow free cash flow by +47.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XTP use?
Our models discount Sino AG at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sino AG that is +47.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sino AG (XTP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sino AG grew +1.5 % a year. The price currently implies +47.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sino AG (XTP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sino AG (+47.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sino AG (XTP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.92 %: that much free cash flow Sino AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sino AG (XTP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sino AG it is €12.02 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €120.00. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sino AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, XTP trades above its calculated fair value: price €120.00, fair value €12.02, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XTP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€120.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.02). For Sino AG the two are €107.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sino AG worth?
The market values Sino AG at about €280M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €120.00; our models calculate a fair value of €12.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XTP?
Our models span a range for Sino AG: cautious scenario €9.02, base €12.02, optimistic €15.03 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €120.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XTP?
Sino AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €12.02 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sino AG (XTP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sino AG (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 7.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XTP from its 52-week high?
Sino AG trades at €120.00, about 1% below its 52-week high of €121.50 and 35% above the low of €88.80 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sino AG?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sino AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €120.00, calculated fair value €12.02 (−90%), Quality Score 79/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XTP calculated?
We run Sino AG through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €12.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Sino AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sino AG (XTP)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was €120.00. Our model-based fair value is €12.02, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sino AG right now?
A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€15.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Sino AG (XTP) come from?
Earnings per share at Sino AG grew +2.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate −2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sino AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Sino AG (XTP)?
The market capitalisation of Sino AG is €280M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sino AG (XTP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sino AG is 1.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sino AG (XTP)?
Earnings per share at Sino AG are €11.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sino AG (XTP)?
The dividend yield of Sino AG is 1.2% (payout 12.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sino AG (XTP)?
The net margin of Sino AG is 10.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sino AG (XTP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sino AG is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sino AG (XTP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sino AG is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sino AG (XTP)?
The operating margin of Sino AG is 391% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sino AG (XTP)?
Revenue at Sino AG is growing +69.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Sino AG (XTP) hold?
Sino AG holds more cash than debt, €46.1K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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