Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Yangarra Resources Ltd C$2.32, price C$1.45, upside +60.0%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.8000 – C$4.03 · fair‑value band C$1.74 – C$4.03 · the C$1.45 price screens below the C$2.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Yangarra Resources Ltd., a junior oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of resource properties in Western Canada. It focuses on the Cardium and Belly River properties; and holds interests in the Glauconitic, Viking, Second White Specs, Rock Creek and Ellerslie zones, Red Deer, and Willesden Green in Central Alberta.
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Yangarra Resources Ltd., a junior oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of resource properties in Western Canada. It focuses on the Cardium and Belly River properties; and holds interests in the Glauconitic, Viking, Second White Specs, Rock Creek and Ellerslie zones, Red Deer, and Willesden Green in Central Alberta. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR) currently trades at C$1.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$2.32, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$5.83 per share, and 13 of the 23 models we run sit above the C$1.45 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$0.3400, and 10 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$1.74 (bear) to C$4.03 (bull), the price of C$1.45 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Yangarra Resources Ltd reported revenue of C$108M in FY2025 versus C$140M in FY2021, a compound −6.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$15.0M in FY2025, compounding −26.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$163M (≈ $115M) · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 1.20 · EPS (TTM) C$0.1800 · Net margin 13.9% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3% · Operating margin 48.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 60%, YGR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$1.74Fair Value C$2.32Bull C$4.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.1346 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+64.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−22.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22.9% vs −7.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 26%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+67.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +64.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 293 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Return on assets2.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)17.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)48.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth39.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Is Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$2.32 versus a price of C$1.45, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YGR?
Our model-based fair value for Yangarra Resources Ltd is C$2.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$1.45.
What is the quality score of YGR?
Yangarra Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$2.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$1.74, optimistic scenario C$4.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yangarra Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$2.32, about +60% upside versus a price of C$1.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$1.74, optimistic scenario C$4.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
Yangarra Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$115M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yangarra Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +67.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YGR use?
Our models discount Yangarra Resources Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yangarra Resources Ltd that is +67.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yangarra Resources Ltd grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies +67.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yangarra Resources Ltd (+67.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.69 %: that much free cash flow Yangarra Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yangarra Resources Ltd it is C$2.32 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$1.45. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yangarra Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, YGR trades below its calculated fair value: price C$1.45, fair value C$2.32, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YGR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$1.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$2.32). For Yangarra Resources Ltd the two are C$0.8700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yangarra Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Yangarra Resources Ltd at about C$163M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$1.45; our models calculate a fair value of C$2.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YGR?
Our models span a range for Yangarra Resources Ltd: cautious scenario C$1.74, base C$2.32, optimistic C$4.03 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$1.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YGR?
Yangarra Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$2.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yangarra Resources Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YGR from its 52-week high?
Yangarra Resources Ltd trades at C$1.45, about 12% below its 52-week high of C$1.65 and 51% above the low of C$0.9600 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$2.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yangarra Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yangarra Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$1.45, calculated fair value C$2.32 (+60%), Quality Score 41/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YGR calculated?
We run Yangarra Resources Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$2.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Yangarra Resources Ltd currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$1.45. Our model-based fair value is C$2.32, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yangarra Resources Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$1.74). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (C$1.74 to C$4.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Yangarra Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
The market capitalisation of Yangarra Resources Ltd is C$163M (≈ $115M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yangarra Resources Ltd is 1.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
Earnings per share at Yangarra Resources Ltd are C$0.1800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
The net margin of Yangarra Resources Ltd is 13.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yangarra Resources Ltd is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yangarra Resources Ltd is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
The operating margin of Yangarra Resources Ltd is 48.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
Revenue at Yangarra Resources Ltd is growing +39.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR)?
Earnings per share at Yangarra Resources Ltd are growing +83.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR) carry?
The net debt of Yangarra Resources Ltd is C$131M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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