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Yirendai Ltd (YRD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yirendai Ltd stock $0.63, price $0.37, upside +70.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US · Based in China

YL Yirendai Ltd logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Yirendai Ltd

YRD · US
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 41% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $0.6307 · Strongly undervalued
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 44% above the price ($0.5330).
Quality 46/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.1 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -34.5% net margin (TTM) · excl. one-off gain FY2025 -37.5%
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 13/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$8.02 $0.3624 Fair Value $0.6307 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.3624 – $8.02 · fair‑value band $0.5330 – $0.7880 · the $0.3710 price screens below the $0.6307 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Yiren Digital Ltd. provides financial services through an AI-powered Fintech platform in China. Its platform provides a suite of financial and lifestyle services. The company offers credit solutions, insurance brokerage, and others.

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The company was formerly known as Yirendai Ltd. and changed its name to Yiren Digital Ltd. in September 2019. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. Yiren Digital Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of CreditEase Holdings (Cayman) Limited.

Stock analysis

Yirendai Ltd (YRD) currently trades at $0.3710, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6307, implying the stock looks roughly 41% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 11 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $0.5330 (bear) to $0.7880 (bull), the price of $0.3710 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Yirendai Ltd reported revenue of 5.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 39.4M CNY in FY2025, compounding −55.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $50.3M Micro · EPS (TTM) $−2.45 · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity −17.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −13.3% · Revenue (TTM) $4.3B · Revenue growth (YoY) −46.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 93% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 70%, YRD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.5330 Fair Value $0.6307 Bull $0.7880
Price $0.3710 · Upside +70.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Growth DCF $18.11 $24.83 $34.09 79
Owner Earnings $7.66 $8.39 $9.48 78
5Y P/E Exit $11.77 $13.24 $14.66 72
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $7.66 $8.39 $9.48 78
5Y P/E Exit $11.77 $13.24 $14.66 72
10Y P/E Exit $14.45 $16.84 $19.79 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.4600 $2.53 $3.50 63
Lynch FV $0.7000 $1.00 $1.31 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.6600 $0.8800 $1.10 63
P/B Multiple $16.65 $22.20 $27.75 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.83 $8.84 $11.04 55
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $18.11 $24.83 $34.09 79
Rev-Margin DCF $19.21 $29.02 $42.41 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $7.46 $8.18 $9.38 71

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 28
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 19
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 77
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 99
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 26
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 0
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 45
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.2% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−40.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−40.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−40.6% vs −22.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 28%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 283 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +70.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −34.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −13.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −46.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 27.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

P/S (12 months) 0.01× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.24× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 59
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 57
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 54
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 64

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Synchrony Financial, SYF $73.74 $141.92 +92% vs YRD
PayPal Holdings PYPL $59.24 $107.45 +81% vs YRD
Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN ₹961.15 ₹1,309 +36% vs YRD
Affirm Holdings AFRM $68.11 $74.92 +10% vs YRD
Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE ₹1,088 ₹1,055 −3% vs YRD
American Express Company AXP $320.99 $210.02 −35% vs YRD
Visa Inc V $422.65 $242.87 −43% vs YRD
Mastercard Incorporated MA $652.70 $360.13 −45% vs YRD
Capital One Financial Corporation COF $201.87 $106.81 −47% vs YRD
SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI $16.21 $5.51 −66% vs YRD

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Yirendai Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yirendai Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YRD

Frequently asked questions

Is Yirendai Ltd (YRD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6307 versus a price of $0.3710, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YRD?
Our model-based fair value for Yirendai Ltd is $0.6307 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.3710.
What is the quality score of YRD?
Yirendai Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6307 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5330, optimistic scenario $0.7880. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yirendai Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6307, about +70% upside versus a price of $0.3710 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.5330, optimistic scenario $0.7880. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Yirendai Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yirendai Ltd it is $0.6307 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $0.3710. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Yirendai Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, YRD trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.3710, fair value $0.6307, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YRD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.3710); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6307). For Yirendai Ltd the two are $0.2597 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yirendai Ltd worth?
The market values Yirendai Ltd at about $50.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $0.3710; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6307 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YRD?
Our models span a range for Yirendai Ltd: cautious scenario $0.5330, base $0.6307, optimistic $0.7880 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $0.3710). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of YRD?
The PEG ratio of Yirendai Ltd is 1.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yirendai Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −17.8%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YRD from its 52-week high?
Yirendai Ltd trades at $0.3710, about 93% below its 52-week high of $5.50 and 2% above the low of $0.3624 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6307 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yirendai Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yirendai Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $0.3710, calculated fair value $0.6307 (+70%), Quality Score 46/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YRD calculated?
We run Yirendai Ltd through 11 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.6307 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Yirendai Ltd currently trades 41% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $0.3710. Our model-based fair value is $0.6307, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yirendai Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (46/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.5330). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Yirendai Ltd (YRD) come from?
Earnings per share at Yirendai Ltd grew +3.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Yirendai Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
The market capitalisation of Yirendai Ltd is $50.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Earnings per share at Yirendai Ltd are $−2.45. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
The net margin of Yirendai Ltd is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yirendai Ltd is −17.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yirendai Ltd is 17.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
The operating margin of Yirendai Ltd is −13.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Revenue at Yirendai Ltd is growing −46.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Earnings per share at Yirendai Ltd are growing −10.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Yirendai Ltd (YRD) generate?
The free cash flow of Yirendai Ltd is $678M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Yirendai Ltd (YRD) hold?
Yirendai Ltd holds more cash than debt, $3.8B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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