Yirendai Ltd (YRD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Yirendai Ltd $1.12, price $1.00, upside +12.3%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6314 – $8.02 · fair‑value band $1.12 – $1.40 · the $1.00 price screens below the $1.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Yiren Digital Ltd. provides financial services through an AI-powered Fintech platform in China. Its platform provides a suite of financial and lifestyle services. The company offers credit solutions, insurance brokerage, and others. The company was formerly known as Yirendai Ltd. and changed its name to Yiren Digital Ltd. in September 2019.
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Yiren Digital Ltd. provides financial services through an AI-powered Fintech platform in China. Its platform provides a suite of financial and lifestyle services. The company offers credit solutions, insurance brokerage, and others. The company was formerly known as Yirendai Ltd. and changed its name to Yiren Digital Ltd. in September 2019. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. Yiren Digital Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of CreditEase Holdings (Cayman) Limited.
Stock analysis
Yirendai Ltd (YRD) currently trades at $1.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.12, implying the stock looks roughly 11.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $10.63 per share, and 11 of the 11 models we run sit above the $1.00 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $5.86, and 0 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.12 (bear) to $1.40 (bull), the price of $1.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Yirendai Ltd reported revenue of 5.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 39.4M CNY in FY2025, compounding −55.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $99.7M · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) $−1.17 · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity −7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.5% · Operating margin 27.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 85% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 12%, YRD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.12Fair Value $1.12Bull $1.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.2% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−40.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−40.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−41% vs −23%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 28%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 331 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+12% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)27% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−41% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)27.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yirendai Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YRD
Frequently asked questions
Is Yirendai Ltd (YRD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.12 versus a price of $1.00, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YRD?
Our model-based fair value for Yirendai Ltd is $1.12 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.00.
What is the quality score of YRD?
Yirendai Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.12 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.12, optimistic scenario $1.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yirendai Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.12, about +12% upside versus a price of $1.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.12, optimistic scenario $1.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Yirendai Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yirendai Ltd it is $1.12 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.00. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yirendai Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, YRD trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.00, fair value $1.12, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YRD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.12). For Yirendai Ltd the two are $0.1230 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yirendai Ltd worth?
The market values Yirendai Ltd at about $99.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.00; our models calculate a fair value of $1.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YRD?
Our models span a range for Yirendai Ltd: cautious scenario $1.12, base $1.12, optimistic $1.40 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YRD?
Yirendai Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/S 0.0.
What is the PEG ratio of YRD?
The PEG ratio of Yirendai Ltd is 1.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yirendai Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −7.4%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YRD from its 52-week high?
Yirendai Ltd trades at $1.00, about 85% below its 52-week high of $6.60 and 20% above the low of $0.8360 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yirendai Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yirendai Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.00, calculated fair value $1.12 (+12%), Quality Score 56/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YRD calculated?
We run Yirendai Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Yirendai Ltd currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.00. Our model-based fair value is $1.12, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yirendai Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.12). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Yirendai Ltd (YRD) come from?
Earnings per share at Yirendai Ltd grew +3.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yirendai Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
The market capitalisation of Yirendai Ltd is $99.7M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yirendai Ltd is 0.09 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Earnings per share at Yirendai Ltd are $−1.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
The net margin of Yirendai Ltd is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yirendai Ltd is −7.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yirendai Ltd is 17.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
The operating margin of Yirendai Ltd is 27.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Revenue at Yirendai Ltd is growing −41.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yirendai Ltd (YRD)?
Earnings per share at Yirendai Ltd are growing −10.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Yirendai Ltd (YRD) generate?
The free cash flow of Yirendai Ltd is $678M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Yirendai Ltd (YRD) hold?
Yirendai Ltd holds more cash than debt, $3.8B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 23, 2026