Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited $19.23, price $14.94, upside +28.7%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.76 – $21.58 · fair‑value band $12.74 – $26.36 · the $14.94 price screens below the $19.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited engages in the mining and sale of coal in the People's Republic of China, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Coal Mining; Smart Logistics; Coal Chemical, Electricity and Heat Supply; and Equipment Manufacturing segments.
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Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited engages in the mining and sale of coal in the People's Republic of China, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Coal Mining; Smart Logistics; Coal Chemical, Electricity and Heat Supply; and Equipment Manufacturing segments. The company offers thermal, PCI, and coking coal; methanol, acetic acid, ethyl acetate, caprolactam, urea, ethylene glycol, naphtha, liquid paraffin, and crude liquid wax; coal mining and excavating equipment, cables, wires, cable accessories, and raw materials products; and chemicals, as well as involved in wholesale of petroleum and mineral products; and manufacturing of synthetic materials. It also engages in potash mineral exploration; electricity and heat supply; coal mining technology development, transfer, and consultation; finance leasing; leasing, trading, and commercial factoring; engineering; investment and asset management; educational software development; event planning; construction and production solar and wind power; providing railway, river, and lakes transportation; commercial; and logistics and transportation services. In addition, the company is involved in coal resource exploration development; port infrastructure construction; production and sales of mining equipment, electromechanical equipment, and rubber products; installation of mining equipment; coal and electrolytic copper trading; recycling of renewable resources; management of mineral resources, coal mining, and washing; operation of power generation; bonded area trade and warehousing; manufacturing of chemical products; and manufacturing of other metal processing machinery. The company was formerly known as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited and changed its name to Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited in December 2021. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Zoucheng, the People's Republic of China. Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Shan Dong Energy Group Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY) currently trades at $14.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.23, implying the stock looks roughly 22.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $39.13 per share, and 19 of the 25 models we run sit above the $14.94 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $6.59, and 6 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.74 (bear) to $26.36 (bull), the price of $14.94 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited reported revenue of 145B CNY in FY2025 versus 152B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was 9.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding −14.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $15.7B · P/E ratio 11.1 · P/S ratio 0.69 · EPS (TTM) $1.41 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 29%, YZCAY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.74Fair Value $19.23Bull $26.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6881 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +29.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 14%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+55.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +51.6% a year for the price and +0.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (35 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−51.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.4% · Above median
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YZCAY
Frequently asked questions
Is Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.23 versus a price of $14.94, about +29% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YZCAY?
Our model-based fair value for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is $19.23 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.94.
What is the quality score of YZCAY?
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.23 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.74, optimistic scenario $26.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.23, about +29% upside versus a price of $14.94 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.74, optimistic scenario $26.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 146B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited pay a dividend?
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +55.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YZCAY use?
Our models discount Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited that is +55.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited grew -7.6 % a year. The price currently implies +55.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (+55.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.64 %: that much free cash flow Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited it is $19.23 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $14.94. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, YZCAY trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.94, fair value $19.23, a gap of about +29% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YZCAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.23). For Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited the two are $4.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited worth?
The market values Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited at about $15.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $14.94; our models calculate a fair value of $19.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YZCAY?
Our models span a range for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited: cautious scenario $12.74, base $19.23, optimistic $26.36 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $14.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YZCAY?
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9.
What is the PEG ratio of YZCAY?
The PEG ratio of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is 0.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YZCAY from its 52-week high?
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited trades at $14.94, about 31% below its 52-week high of $21.58 and 22% above the low of $12.25 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $14.94, calculated fair value $19.23 (+29%), Quality Score 42/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YZCAY calculated?
We run Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $14.94. Our model-based fair value is $19.23, about +29% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited right now?
A fairly wide model range ($12.74 to $26.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
The market capitalisation of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is $15.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is 0.69 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
Earnings per share at Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited are $1.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
The dividend yield of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is 3.3% (payout 35.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
The net margin of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is 6.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
The operating margin of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
Revenue at Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY)?
Earnings per share at Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited are growing +43.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZCAY) carry?
The net debt of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is $63.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 66.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 27, 2026