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VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of VISTRA (VST) BMO C$12.08, price C$7.76, upside +55.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Utilities · CA · Home US

VV VISTRA (VST) BMO logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

VISTRA (VST) BMO

ZVST · NEO

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value C$12.08 · Strongly undervalued (+55.6%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +8.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓11.7% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Ranks above peers (12/14)
✓Wide moat 69/100
!Insider activity 45/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$10.02 C$7.43 Fair Value C$12.08 Dec 2025 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

10‑month range C$7.43 – C$10.02 · fair‑value band C$4.91 – C$15.60 · the C$7.76 price screens below the C$12.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure.

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Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

Stock analysis

VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) (ZVST) currently trades at C$7.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$12.08, implying the stock looks roughly 35.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$76.06 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$7.76 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$11.36, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: C$4.91 (bear) to C$15.60 (bull), the price of C$7.76 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) reported revenue of $17.7B in FY2025 versus $12.1B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $944M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$2.9B (≈ $2.1B) · P/E ratio 0.9 · P/S ratio 0.05 · EPS (TTM) C$8.35 · Dividend yield 11.7% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 42.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 56%, ZVST screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$4.91 Fair Value C$12.08 Bull C$15.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$5.63 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF C$36.37 C$97.37 C$191.29 71
Residual Income C$24.58 C$31.44 C$48.19 71
Growth DCF C$36.88 C$95.50 C$184.13 70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$36.37 C$97.37 C$191.29 71
Owner Earnings C$27.97 C$83.83 C$169.86 67
5Y Revenue Exit C$22.80 C$76.06 C$145.05 64
5Y EBITDA Exit C$65.52 C$158.92 C$271.16 69
5Y P/E Exit C$2.92 C$37.49 C$74.16 61
10Y Revenue Exit C$24.27 C$74.26 C$143.94 59
10Y EBITDA Exit C$53.78 C$131.62 C$241.29 62
10Y P/E Exit C$14.19 C$47.56 C$89.22 57
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd C$27.12 C$99.75 C$134.70 61
Lynch FV C$23.84 C$34.06 C$44.28 58
PEG = 1.0 C$23.84 C$34.06 C$44.28 55
EPV C$1.14 C$11.36 C$20.18 62
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM C$18.48 C$36.82 C$55.75 64
DDM Multi-Stage C$18.48 C$31.82 C$38.86 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple C$53.84 C$71.79 C$89.73 63
P/S Multiple C$50.85 C$67.80 C$84.75 58
P/B Multiple C$29.07 C$38.76 C$48.45 55
EV/EBIT C$37.81 C$71.62 C$105.43 63
EV/EBITDA C$97.48 C$151.17 C$204.87 66
EV/Revenue C$18.43 C$53.59 C$88.75 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$10.77 C$14.43 C$21.53 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$36.88 C$95.50 C$184.13 70
Rev-Margin DCF C$22.80 C$75.92 C$139.95 65
Economic Profit
Residual Income C$24.58 C$31.44 C$48.19 71
ROIC Compounder C$1.14 C$11.36 C$20.18 62
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E C$40.70 C$58.14 C$75.58 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 5
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 24
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 83/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−12% → 12%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 72 stocks

Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +55.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 42.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 26.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 43.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 11.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.11× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.40× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 1.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.5× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.02× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 71
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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NRG Energy, Inc NRG $96.93 $74.44 −23%
Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL ₹1,339 ₹335.95 −75%
Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 ¥6.74 ¥9.10 +35%
Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 ¥5.36 ¥3.65 −32%
China Resources Power Holdings 0836 HK$18.99 HK$36.45 +92%
The Tata Power Company TATAPOWER ₹367.50 ₹175.12 −52%

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VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) · Fair Value
C$12.08 +36%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZVST

Frequently asked questions

Is VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$12.08 versus a price of C$7.76, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ZVST?
Our model-based fair value for VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is C$12.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$7.76.
What is the quality score of ZVST?
VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$12.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$4.91, optimistic scenario C$15.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$12.08, about +56% upside versus a price of C$7.76 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$4.91, optimistic scenario C$15.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) pay a dividend?
VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) it is C$12.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of C$7.76. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ZVST trades below its calculated fair value: price C$7.76, fair value C$12.08, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZVST?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$7.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$12.08). For VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) the two are C$4.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) worth?
The market values VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) at about C$2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is C$7.76; our models calculate a fair value of C$12.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZVST?
Our models span a range for VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED): cautious scenario C$4.91, base C$12.08, optimistic C$15.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price C$7.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ZVST?
VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$12.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.0, P/B 0.4, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 2.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ZVST?
The PEG ratio of VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 0.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
Balance-sheet figures for VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 42.9%, debt of 3.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED)?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, Gulf Development Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price C$7.76, calculated fair value C$12.08 (+56%), Quality Score 46/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZVST calculated?
We run VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$12.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was C$7.76. Our model-based fair value is C$12.08, about +56% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$4.91 to C$15.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED)

How large is the market capitalisation of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
The market capitalisation of VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is C$2.9B (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 0.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
Earnings per share at VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) are C$8.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
The dividend yield of VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 11.7% (payout 10.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
The net margin of VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 42.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
The operating margin of VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 26.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
Revenue at VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is growing +43.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST)?
Earnings per share at VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) are growing −52.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST) generate?
The free cash flow of VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does VISTRA (VST) BMO (ZVST) carry?
The net debt of VISTRA (VST) BMO CDR (CAD HEDGED) is $19.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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