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CGN Power Co (003816) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · CN · Market cap 198B CNY

CP CGN Power Co 003816 · SHE
Price¥3.96
Fair Value¥3.13
Upside-21.0%
Quality47/100
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Weak Growth
Solidly profitable · 13.0% net margin
High debt · negative free cash flow
2.22% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/14)
Moderate moat 59/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥2.19 – ¥4.06 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from ¥2.84 to ¥3.13 (+10.2%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +6.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 21% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥2.19 to ¥4.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥4.97 ¥2.22 Fair Value ¥3.13 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.22 – ¥4.97 · fair‑value band ¥2.19 – ¥4.06 · the ¥3.96 price screens above the ¥3.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

CGN Power Co (003816) currently trades at ¥3.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.13, implying the stock looks roughly 21.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, CGN Power Co generated revenue of 73.2B CNY at a net margin of 13.0%. Revenue declined 13.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at 266B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.19 (bear case) to ¥4.06 (bull case); at ¥3.96, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -21%, 003816 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥2.01 ¥2.16 ¥2.42 76
ROIC Compounder ¥0.2400 72
Gordon GGM ¥0.8600 ¥1.79 ¥2.84 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.30 ¥4.13 ¥5.51 54
Lynch FV ¥0.9100 ¥1.30 ¥1.69 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.9100 ¥1.30 ¥1.69 46
EPV ¥0.2400 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.8600 ¥1.79 ¥2.84 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.8600 ¥1.44 ¥1.88 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥2.87 ¥3.83 ¥4.78 63
P/S Multiple ¥2.44 ¥3.25 ¥4.06 58
P/B Multiple ¥2.44 ¥3.25 ¥4.06 55
EV/EBIT ¥1.57 ¥3.31 ¥5.05 53
EV/EBITDA ¥2.79 ¥4.93 ¥7.07 54
EV/Revenue ¥0.0300 ¥1.13 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.21 ¥1.62 ¥2.41 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.01 ¥2.16 ¥2.42 76
ROIC Compounder ¥0.2400 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥2.40 ¥3.43 ¥4.46 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥3.43) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.30). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 73.2B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -13.3%
Net margin 13.0%
Return on equity 7.9%
Free cash flow −2.1B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 20.7
More key figures
Operating margin 33.8%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1900
Dividend yield 2.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -13.3%
Net debt 266B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 74
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power stations and sells the electricity generated by these stations in the People's Republic of China. It also provides construction, installation, design, and related technical services, as well as labor services.

Full company description

CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power stations and sells the electricity generated by these stations in the People's Republic of China. It also provides construction, installation, design, and related technical services, as well as labor services. As of December 31, 2025, the company manages 28 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 31.838 GW. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China General Nuclear Power Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CGN Power Co reported revenue of ¥75.1B in FY2025 versus ¥80.7B in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥9.8B in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 21/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
75.1B CNY
Latest YoY
−13.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−3.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+1.2%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y)
+13.1%
Revenue −1.8%/yr
FY21 ¥80.7B
FY22 ¥82.8B
FY23 ¥82.5B
FY24 ¥86.8B
FY25 ¥75.1B
Net income +0.0%/yr
FY21 ¥9.8B
FY22 ¥10.0B
FY23 ¥10.7B
FY24 ¥10.8B
FY25 ¥9.8B

003816 screens 21% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CGN Power Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/003816

Peer Group

Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 79 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −21% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -13% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.62× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.61× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.71× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.1× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.84× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 5 · sector 23
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 32 · sector 31
HEALTH 19 · sector 71
DIVIDEND 44 · sector 48

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Constellation Energy Corporation CEG $257.57 $89.08 -65%
Vistra Corp VST $158.86 $47.59 -70%
Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER ₹218.45 ₹75.57 -65%
NRG Energy, Inc NRG $137.90 $56.02 -59%
Gulf Development Public Company GULF 67.50 THB 40.44 THB -40%
Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL ₹1,730 ₹342.02 -80%
Talen Energy Corporation TLN $372.37 $44.67 -88%
Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 ¥5.80 ¥4.95 -15%
Power Assets Holdings 0006 HK$58.45 HK$31.90 -45%
Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 ¥6.75 ¥10.46 +55%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CGN Power Co (003816) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.13 versus a price of ¥3.96, about −21% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 003816?
Our model-based fair value for CGN Power Co is ¥3.13 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥3.96.
What is the quality score of 003816?
CGN Power Co has a Quality Score of 47/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CGN Power Co (003816)?
CGN Power Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 73.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 003816?
The net profit margin of CGN Power Co is about 13.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CGN Power Co pay a dividend?
CGN Power Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.91% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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