CGN Power Co (003816) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CN · Market cap 198B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from ¥2.84 to ¥3.13 (+10.2%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +6.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 21% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥2.19 to ¥4.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.22 – ¥4.97 · fair‑value band ¥2.19 – ¥4.06 · the ¥3.96 price screens above the ¥3.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
CGN Power Co (003816) currently trades at ¥3.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.13, implying the stock looks roughly 21.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, CGN Power Co generated revenue of 73.2B CNY at a net margin of 13.0%. Revenue declined 13.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at 266B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.19 (bear case) to ¥4.06 (bull case); at ¥3.96, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -21%, 003816 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥3.43) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.30). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power stations and sells the electricity generated by these stations in the People's Republic of China. It also provides construction, installation, design, and related technical services, as well as labor services.
Full company description
CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power stations and sells the electricity generated by these stations in the People's Republic of China. It also provides construction, installation, design, and related technical services, as well as labor services. As of December 31, 2025, the company manages 28 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 31.838 GW. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China General Nuclear Power Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CGN Power Co reported revenue of ¥75.1B in FY2025 versus ¥80.7B in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥9.8B in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.
003816 screens 21% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 79 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $257.57 | $89.08 | -65% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $158.86 | $47.59 | -70% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹218.45 | ₹75.57 | -65% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $137.90 | $56.02 | -59% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 67.50 THB | 40.44 THB | -40% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,730 | ₹342.02 | -80% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $372.37 | $44.67 | -88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.80 | ¥4.95 | -15% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$58.45 | HK$31.90 | -45% |
| Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 | ¥6.75 | ¥10.46 | +55% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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