NRG Energy, Inc (NRG) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $28.5B
NRG Energy, Inc
NRG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −14.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($92.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($29.69 to $92.14). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.07 – $183.47 · fair‑value band $29.69 – $92.14 · the $118.13 price screens above the $56.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
NRG Energy, Inc (NRG) currently trades at $118.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.02, implying the stock looks roughly 52.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, NRG Energy, Inc generated revenue of $32.4B at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue grew 19.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. Net debt stands at $12.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $29.69 (bear case) to $92.14 (bull case); at $118.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -53%, NRG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($74.17) versus Asset-Based ($5.34). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments.
Full company description
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments. The company offers retail electricity, energy management, demand response and virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, smart home security, and automation services. It also offers system power, distributed and backup generation, energy storage, energy management, renewable and low-carbon products, and carbon management solutions for large business and commercial customers; a cloud-based home platform, including hardware, software, sales, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring solutions; and generation portfolio includes fossil fuel and renewable generation assets diversified by fuel type and dispatch level, with ongoing development of new natural gas and renewable projects. In addition, the company trades in power, natural gas, and related products; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It offers its products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. It serves residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NRG Energy, Inc reported revenue of $30.7B in FY2025 versus $27.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $864M in FY2025, compounding −20.7%/yr from FY2021.
NRG screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Clearway Energy (CWEN) Beats Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- NRG Energy Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- NRG Energy Inc (NRG) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Landmark 1. ...
- Sector Update: Energy Stocks Decline Late Afternoon
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 78 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $257.57 | $89.08 | -65% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $158.86 | $47.59 | -70% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹218.45 | ₹75.57 | -65% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥3.88 | ¥3.13 | -19% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 67.50 THB | 40.44 THB | -40% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,730 | ₹342.02 | -80% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $372.37 | $44.67 | -88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.80 | ¥4.95 | -15% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$58.45 | HK$31.90 | -45% |
| Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 | ¥6.75 | ¥10.46 | +55% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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