NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NRG Energy Inc. stock $74.44, price $88.29, that is 15.7% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.42 – $182.82 · fair‑value band $28.21 – $96.78 · the $88.29 price screens above the $74.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments.
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The company offers retail electricity, energy management, demand response and virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, smart home security, and automation services.
It also offers system power, distributed and backup generation, energy storage, energy management, renewable and low-carbon products, and carbon management solutions for large business and commercial customers; a cloud-based home platform, including hardware, software, sales, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring solutions; and generation portfolio includes fossil fuel and renewable generation assets diversified by fuel type and dispatch level, with ongoing development of new natural gas and renewable projects.
In addition, the company trades in power, natural gas, and related products; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It offers its products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint.
It serves residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) currently trades at $88.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $74.44, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $88.71 per share, and 7 of the 23 models we run sit above the $88.29 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $31.43, and 16 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $28.21 (bear) to $96.78 (bull), the price of $88.29 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NRG Energy Inc. reported revenue of $30.7B in FY2025 versus $27.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $864M in FY2025, compounding −20.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $21.0B Large · P/E ratio 23.1 · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) $3.82 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 23.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −16%, NRG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$28.21Fair Value $74.44Bull$96.78
Price $88.29 · Downside -15.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.67 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.3M and none bought.
SaleGerald Alfred SpencerSVP & Chief Accounting Officer1,580 shares at $120.93$191,069Sep 8, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleVirginia KinneyExec VP, Chief Admin Officer4× since Nov 14, 2025: 56,145 shares, avg. $145.65$8.2MJul 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDavid Nanus10% owner16,129,269 shares at $164.00$2.6BMar 4, 2026
SaleLS Power Equity Advisors, LLC10% owner16,129,269 shares at $164.00$2.6BMar 4, 2026
SaleBruce ChungEVP & CFO2× since Jan 6, 2026: 20,000 shares, avg. $157.41$3.1MJan 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBrian CurciExec VP & General Counsel107,556 shares at $160.46$17.3MJan 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRobert J GaudetteExec VP, NRG Business45,000 shares at $158.76$7.1MJan 6, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 45 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.6% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −13.4% / 27.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.8% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: NRG demonstrates strength in advancing gas-fired plants and acquisitions for data centers under strict return hurdles, but its main weakness is reliance on volatile merchant prices with growing carbon and renewable pressures.
Main risk: Regulatory pauses and reviews of data center interconnections in Texas could delay or block NRG's hyperscaler-backed natural gas plant developments and associated long-term contracts.
Bull case: NRG could expand its virtual power plant offerings and secure additional long-term hyperscaler contracts to offset any regulatory delays and strengthen contracted cash flows.
Bear case: Persistent regulatory hurdles or a shift by hyperscalers to behind-the-meter solutions could leave NRG with fewer new contracted assets and greater exposure to wholesale power price volatility in its merchant portfolio.
NRG is moving ahead with new gas-fired plants and a major asset acquisition to serve rising data center demand while stressing strict return hurdles on every project. At the same time the portfolio stays tied to volatile merchant prices and faces growing questions around carbon exposure and renewable competition. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will disciplined execution turn the added capacity into reliable cash flows or leave the company carrying more risk than reward?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−15.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)12.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity9.76× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.1× · Pricier than median
P/B12.48× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.63× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)27.4× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NRG Energy Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NRG
Frequently asked questions
Is NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $74.44 versus a price of $88.29, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NRG?
Our model-based fair value for NRG Energy Inc. is $74.44 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $88.29.
What is the quality score of NRG?
NRG Energy Inc. has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $74.44 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.21, optimistic scenario $96.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NRG Energy Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $74.44, about 16% lower versus a price of $88.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $28.21, optimistic scenario $96.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
NRG Energy Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does NRG Energy Inc. pay a dividend?
NRG Energy Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.11% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
NRG Energy Inc. pays a dividend of $1.87 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 2, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2012. The payout ratio is 48.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.95 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NRG Energy Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +20.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.6 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NRG use?
Our models discount NRG Energy Inc. at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NRG Energy Inc. that is +20.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NRG Energy Inc. grew +27.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +20.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NRG Energy Inc. (+20.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.13 %: that much free cash flow NRG Energy Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NRG Energy Inc. it is $74.44 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $88.29. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is NRG Energy Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, NRG trades above its calculated fair value: price $88.29, fair value $74.44, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NRG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($88.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($74.44). For NRG Energy Inc. the two are $13.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NRG Energy Inc. worth?
The market values NRG Energy Inc. at about $21.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $88.29; our models calculate a fair value of $74.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NRG?
Our models span a range for NRG Energy Inc.: cautious scenario $28.21, base $74.44, optimistic $96.78 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $88.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NRG?
NRG Energy Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $74.44 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 17.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 12.5, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NRG?
The PEG ratio of NRG Energy Inc. is 0.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
Balance-sheet figures for NRG Energy Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 23.8%, debt of 9.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NRG from its 52-week high?
NRG Energy Inc. trades at $88.29, about 52% below its 52-week high of $182.82 and 10% above the low of $80.55 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $74.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NRG Energy Inc.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NRG Energy Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $88.29, calculated fair value $74.44 (−16%), Quality Score 52/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NRG calculated?
We run NRG Energy Inc. through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $74.44 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. NRG Energy Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $88.29. Our model-based fair value is $74.44, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NRG Energy Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($28.21 to $96.78). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of NRG Energy Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
The market capitalisation of NRG Energy Inc. is $21.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NRG Energy Inc. is 0.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
Earnings per share at NRG Energy Inc. are $3.82 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
The dividend yield of NRG Energy Inc. is 2.1% (payout 48.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
The net margin of NRG Energy Inc. is 2.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NRG Energy Inc. is 23.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NRG Energy Inc. is 7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
The operating margin of NRG Energy Inc. is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
Revenue at NRG Energy Inc. is growing +11.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)?
Earnings per share at NRG Energy Inc. are growing −85.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) carry?
The net debt of NRG Energy Inc. is $12.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026