China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd stock HK$25.59, price HK$20.92, upside +22.3%, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$18.17 – HK$64.47 · fair‑value band HK$19.20 – HK$31.99 · the HK$20.92 price screens below the HK$25.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture, distribution, and sale of alcoholic beverages in Mainland China. It offers beer and baijiu products under the Guizhou and Jinsha Huisha brands.
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The company was formerly known as China Resources Enterprise, Limited and changed its name to China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited in October 2015. The company is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of CRH (Beer) Limited.
Stock analysis
China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291) currently trades at HK$20.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$25.59, implying the stock looks roughly 18% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$27.62 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$20.92 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.62, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$19.20 (bear) to HK$31.99 (bull), the price of HK$20.92 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of 38.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 33.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was 3.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding −7.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$67.9B (≈ $8.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 20.4 · P/S ratio 1.81 · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin 8.9% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 25.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at 22%, 0291 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$19.20Fair Value HK$25.59BullHK$31.99
Price HK$20.92 · Upside +22.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 10.0% / 16.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.0% a year for the price and +3.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat signals from margins and cash conversion form the main strength, while intense competition and rising packaging costs remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Tsingtao Brewery, Yanjing Beer and craft breweries could capture more share in premium and mid-tier segments, limiting China Resources Beer's ability to raise average selling prices and protect margins amid shifting tastes.
Bull case: By accelerating domestic barley cultivation and deepening partnerships like the Heineken arrangement, the company could secure lower-cost inputs and strengthen its premium portfolio to outpace rivals in a shifting market.
Bear case: If tax changes and import volatility coincide with faster gains by domestic and craft competitors, margin recovery from premiumization could stall and overall volumes might continue to face structural pressure.
China Resources Beer continues to push its premium beers, lifting beer revenue and average selling prices even as overall first-half profit slipped on higher packaging costs and weaker non-core segments. Leadership has just changed with a new president and CFO stepping in. Our models see the shares as undervalued, but will premiumization deliver enough margin recovery to outweigh ongoing cost and volume pressures, or will the challenges persist?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 55 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside+22.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)25.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0291
Frequently asked questions
Is China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$25.59 versus a price of HK$20.92, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0291?
Our model-based fair value for China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd is HK$25.59 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$20.92.
What is the quality score of 0291?
China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$25.59 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$19.20, optimistic scenario HK$31.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$25.59, about +22% upside versus a price of HK$20.92 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$19.20, optimistic scenario HK$31.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 38.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.52% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291) and when is the ex-dividend date?
China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd pays a dividend of HK$1.15 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2017. The payout ratio is 94.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.67 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0291 use?
Our models discount China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd that is -5.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -5.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (-5.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.23 %: that much free cash flow China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd it is HK$25.59 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of HK$20.92. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 0291 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$20.92, fair value HK$25.59, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0291?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$20.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$25.59). For China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd the two are HK$4.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd at about HK$67.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is HK$20.92; our models calculate a fair value of HK$25.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0291?
Our models span a range for China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$19.20, base HK$25.59, optimistic HK$31.99 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price HK$20.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0291?
China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$25.59 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.8, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 0291?
The PEG ratio of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd is 0.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0291 from its 52-week high?
China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd trades at HK$20.92, about 26% below its 52-week high of HK$28.33 and 15% above the low of HK$18.17 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$25.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Constellation Brands, Inc, Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price HK$20.92, calculated fair value HK$25.59 (+22%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0291 calculated?
We run China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$25.59 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd currently trades 18% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$20.92. Our model-based fair value is HK$25.59, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd right now?
Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
The market capitalisation of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd is HK$67.9B (≈ $8.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd is 1.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
The dividend yield of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd is 5.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
The net margin of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd is 8.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
The operating margin of China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd is 25.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
Revenue at China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291)?
Earnings per share at China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd are growing −10.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (0291) hold?
China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 3.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026