Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co stock SAR 47.01, price SAR 116, that is 59.3% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range 104.70 SAR – 269.51 SAR · fair‑value band 29.59 SAR – 66.24 SAR · the 115.50 SAR price screens above the 47.01 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Company, through its subsidiaries, offers listing services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Capital Markets, Data and Technology Services, and Post Trade Services segments. The company creates and manages the mechanisms of trading of securities.
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It also engages in providing depository and registration services for securities ownership; clearing of securities trades; and dissemination of securities information.
In addition, the company provides financial technology solutions, financial content, and capital market solutions, as well as products for stakeholders.
Further, it is involved in trading commission for securities and derivative markets; registration of investment portfolios in the filing and settlement system; and trading data, reference data, market indices, and financial information to the financial community, financial technology solutions, research and development in the field of engineering and technology.
Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111) currently trades at 115.50 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 47.01 SAR, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of 60.28 SAR per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the 115.50 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12.15 SAR, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 29.59 SAR (bear) to 66.24 SAR (bull), the price of 115.50 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co reported revenue of 1.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.2B SAR in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was 396M SAR in FY2025, compounding −9.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 13.9B SAR (≈ $3.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 42.5 · P/S ratio 11.5 · EPS (TTM) 2.72 SAR · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 24.2% · Return on equity 8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −59%, 1111 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear29.59 SARFair Value 47.01 SARBull66.24 SAR
Price 115.50 SAR · Downside -59.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3671 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.50% → 35%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 21.4%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.3% a year for the price and −0.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat signals from solid margins and cash flow in capital markets are limited by sparse public evidence on human capital, innovation and governance.
Main risk: Dependence on trading volumes threatens revenue and profits in capital markets and post-trade services.
Tadawul Group's recent results highlight how lower average daily trading values cut revenue and profits across capital markets and post-trade services. Data and technology services expanded but have not fully compensated. Our models see the company as overvalued amid these pressures. Will efforts to attract high-frequency traders and expand derivatives restore the core trading engine or leave the business more exposed to volume swings?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 454 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−59.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.9% · Above median
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)24.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−8.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1111
Frequently asked questions
Is Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 47.01 SAR versus a price of 115.50 SAR, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1111?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co is 47.01 SAR (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 115.50 SAR.
What is the quality score of 1111?
Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 47.01 SAR (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 29.59 SAR, optimistic scenario 66.24 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 47.01 SAR, about 59% lower versus a price of 115.50 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 29.59 SAR, optimistic scenario 66.24 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B SAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co pay a dividend?
Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co currently shows a dividend yield of 1.99% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co pays a dividend of 2.30 SAR per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 23, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. The payout ratio is 84.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.59 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co would have to grow free cash flow by 12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew 5.7 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1111 use?
Our models discount Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co that is +12.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co grew 5.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +12.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (+12.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.17 %: that much free cash flow Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co it is 47.01 SAR per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of 115.50 SAR. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, 1111 trades above its calculated fair value: price 115.50 SAR, fair value 47.01 SAR, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1111?
No. The price is what the market pays today (115.50 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (47.01 SAR). For Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co the two are 68.49 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co worth?
The market values Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co at about 13.9B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is 115.50 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 47.01 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1111?
Our models span a range for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co: cautious scenario 29.59 SAR, base 47.01 SAR, optimistic 66.24 SAR per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price 115.50 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1111?
Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 47.01 SAR is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 42.6. Other multiples: P/B 4.0, P/S 11.5, EV/EBITDA 60.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 8.9%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1111 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co trades at 115.50 SAR, about 39% below its 52-week high of 188.87 SAR and 10% above the low of 104.70 SAR (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 47.01 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price 115.50 SAR, calculated fair value 47.01 SAR (−59%), Quality Score 60/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1111 calculated?
We run Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co through 13 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 47.01 SAR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was 115.50 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 47.01 SAR, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (66.24 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (29.59 SAR to 66.24 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co is 13.9B SAR (≈ $3.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co is 11.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co are 2.72 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
The dividend yield of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co is 2.0% (payout 84.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
The net margin of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co is 24.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
The operating margin of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
Revenue at Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co is down 8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co are down 41.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co (1111) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co is 484M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 12, 2026