Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV stock €54.03, price €34.22, upside +57.9%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €20.67 – €41.14 · fair‑value band €40.52 – €67.53 · the €34.22 price screens below the €54.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. operates retail food stores and e-commerce in the Netherlands, the United States, and internationally.
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The company's stores offer produce, dairy, meat, deli, bakery, seafood, and frozen products; grocery, beer, and wine; floral, pet food, health and beauty care, kitchen and cookware, gardening tools, general merchandise articles, electronics, newspapers and magazines, and tobacco; gasoline; and pharmacy products.
It operates its supermarkets, convenience stores, and online stores under the Albert, Albert Heijin, Alfa Beta Vassilopoulos, bol, Delhaize, ENA, Food Lion, Gall & Gall, Giant Food, The GIANT Company, Hannaford, Maxi, Mega Image, Stop & Shop, Profi, and Super Indo brands.
The company was formerly known as Koninklijke Ahold N.V. and changed its name to Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. in July 2016. The company was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Zaandam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD) currently trades at €34.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €54.03, implying the stock looks roughly 37% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €124.78 per share, and 19 of the 25 models we run sit above the €34.22 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €24.26, and 6 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €40.52 (bear) to €67.53 (bull), the price of €34.22 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV reported revenue of €92.4B in FY2025 versus €75.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €30.1B Large · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) €2.58 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 16.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 58%, AD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€40.52Fair Value €54.03Bull€67.53
Price €34.22 · Upside +57.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.15 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Per share before 2003divided by the spin-off factor 1.1823
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.3% vs 11.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.0% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Scale benefits support quick recovery from disruptions, yet the business remains limited by thin margins and intense competition typical of grocery retail.
Main risk: Amazon's heavy investments in the Netherlands and hard discounters such as Aldi and Lidl could draw customers away from Ahold Delhaize's banners and bol platform or force sustained price reductions that hit thin grocery margins.
Bull case: By deepening its store-first omnichannel model and AI-driven personalization across Albert Heijn and US banners the company could retain loyalty and grow higher-margin retail media even as rivals expand.
Bear case: If Amazon captures more Benelux e-commerce and discounters intensify price pressure across Europe and the US Ahold Delhaize could lose significant online and in-store volume while margins compress further in its core grocery operations.
Ahold Delhaize kept physical stores open and most systems restored within weeks after the October cyber incident disrupted online services and supply chains across its European and US operations. The company still revised its full-year outlook as a result. Our models see the stock as undervalued. Does this show underlying operational resilience that will limit lasting damage, or will repeated digital exposures continue to weigh on performance?
Compare Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+57.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.2% · Above median
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Is Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €54.03 versus a price of €34.22, about +58% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AD?
Our model-based fair value for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV is €54.03 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €34.22.
What is the quality score of AD?
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €54.03 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €40.52, optimistic scenario €67.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €54.03, about +58% upside versus a price of €34.22 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €40.52, optimistic scenario €67.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €92.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV pay a dividend?
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV currently shows a dividend yield of 3.62% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV pays a dividend of €1.24 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 7, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2007. The payout ratio is 45.6% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 48.1%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 6.46 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV would have to grow free cash flow by -20.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.3 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AD use?
Our models discount Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV that is -20.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV grew +4.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -20.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (-20.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.18 %: that much free cash flow Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV it is €54.03 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of €34.22. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, AD trades below its calculated fair value: price €34.22, fair value €54.03, a gap of about +58% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€34.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€54.03). For Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV the two are €19.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV worth?
The market values Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV at about €30.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is €34.22; our models calculate a fair value of €54.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AD?
Our models span a range for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV: cautious scenario €40.52, base €54.03, optimistic €67.53 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price €34.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AD?
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €54.03 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 12.8 (reported for FY2025: 13.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 14.0. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 2.1, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
What is the PEG ratio of AD?
The PEG ratio of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV is 2.74 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 16.2%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AD from its 52-week high?
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV trades at €34.22, about 17% below its 52-week high of €41.14 and 12% above the low of €30.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €54.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, George Weston Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price €34.22, calculated fair value €54.03 (+58%), Quality Score 70/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AD calculated?
We run Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €54.03 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV currently trades 37% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €34.22. Our model-based fair value is €54.03, about +58% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€40.52). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (70/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD) come from?
Earnings per share at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV grew +10.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.0 %, EBIT margin −0.2 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
The market capitalisation of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV is €30.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV is 0.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
Earnings per share at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV are €2.58 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
The dividend yield of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV is 3.6% (payout 45.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 48.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
The net margin of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV is 2.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV is 16.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
The operating margin of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
Revenue at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD)?
Earnings per share at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV are growing +10.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD) carry?
The net debt of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV is €1.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026