Dino Polska SA (DNP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Dino Polska SA PLN 19.80, price PLN 35.48, upside -44.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 26.36 PLN – 55.62 PLN · fair‑value band 11.15 PLN – 36.97 PLN · the 35.48 PLN price screens above the 19.80 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Dino Polska S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates a network of medium-sized grocery supermarkets under the Dino brand in Poland.
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Dino Polska S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates a network of medium-sized grocery supermarkets under the Dino brand in Poland. The company stores offer fresh food products, such as meat, poultry, cold cuts, fruits and vegetables, dairy products, and bread; other groceries, including children's food, breakfast products, ready to eat meals, beverages, candies, snacks, frozen goods, processed goods, oils, grain and bulk products, condiments, and alcohol and cigarettes; and non-grocery products comprising flowers, cleaning agents, sanitary articles, pet food, seasonal products, and small household appliances. It also produces meat products; rents and operates owned and leased real estate; purchases and sells real estate properties; and manufactures and processes refined petroleum products, as well as offers other financial services. In addition, it engages in the retail sale of automotive fuel in specialized stores; operation of warehousing and storage facilities; retail sales run by mail order houses or the internet; and advertising agency activities. The company was founded in 1999 and is based in Krotoszyn, Poland.
Stock analysis
Dino Polska SA (DNP) currently trades at 35.48 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 19.80 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 79.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 55.89 PLN per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the 35.48 PLN price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 4.91 PLN, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 11.15 PLN (bear) to 36.97 PLN (bull), the price of 35.48 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Dino Polska SA reported revenue of 33.6B PLN in FY2025 versus 13.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound +26.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6B PLN in FY2025, compounding +17.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 34.8B PLN (≈ $9.0B) · P/E ratio 22.3 · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) 1.59 PLN · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 19.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.8% · Operating margin 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −44%, DNP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.0100 PLN to 75.38 PLN). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 11.15 PLNFair Value 19.80 PLNBull 36.97 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.16 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +29.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19% vs 29%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.1% a year for the price and +10.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−44% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Above median
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity36.08× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)22.3× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.26× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF14.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.3× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)74· sector 17
PAST (return on equity)76· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dino Polska SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DNP
Frequently asked questions
Is Dino Polska SA (DNP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 19.80 PLN versus a price of 35.48 PLN, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DNP?
Our model-based fair value for Dino Polska SA is 19.80 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 35.48 PLN.
What is the quality score of DNP?
Dino Polska SA has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 19.80 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 11.15 PLN, optimistic scenario 36.97 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dino Polska SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 19.80 PLN, about −44% upside versus a price of 35.48 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 11.15 PLN, optimistic scenario 36.97 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
Dino Polska SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 34.7B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dino Polska SA would have to grow free cash flow by +28.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DNP use?
Our models discount Dino Polska SA at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dino Polska SA that is +28.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dino Polska SA (DNP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dino Polska SA grew +27.1 % a year. The price currently implies +28.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dino Polska SA (DNP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dino Polska SA (+28.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.75 %: that much free cash flow Dino Polska SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dino Polska SA it is 19.80 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 35.48 PLN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dino Polska SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, DNP trades above its calculated fair value: price 35.48 PLN, fair value 19.80 PLN, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DNP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (35.48 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (19.80 PLN). For Dino Polska SA the two are 15.68 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dino Polska SA worth?
The market values Dino Polska SA at about 34.8B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 35.48 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 19.80 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DNP?
Our models span a range for Dino Polska SA: cautious scenario 11.15 PLN, base 19.80 PLN, optimistic 36.97 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 35.48 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DNP?
Dino Polska SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 19.80 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dino Polska SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 19.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DNP from its 52-week high?
Dino Polska SA trades at 35.48 PLN, about 23% below its 52-week high of 46.03 PLN and 29% above the low of 27.58 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 19.80 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dino Polska SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dino Polska SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 35.48 PLN, calculated fair value 19.80 PLN (−44%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DNP calculated?
We run Dino Polska SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 19.80 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Dino Polska SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 35.48 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 19.80 PLN, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dino Polska SA right now?
The model range is unusually wide (11.15 PLN to 36.97 PLN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Dino Polska SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
The market capitalisation of Dino Polska SA is 34.8B PLN (≈ $9.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dino Polska SA is 1.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
Earnings per share at Dino Polska SA are 1.59 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
The net margin of Dino Polska SA is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dino Polska SA is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dino Polska SA is 12.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
The operating margin of Dino Polska SA is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
Revenue at Dino Polska SA is growing +14.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dino Polska SA (DNP)?
Earnings per share at Dino Polska SA are growing +0.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dino Polska SA (DNP) carry?
The net debt of Dino Polska SA is 196M PLN (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026