Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arthur J Gallagher & Co stock $75.74, price $288, that is 73.7% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $131.19 – $343.25 · fair‑value band $56.80 – $94.67 · the $288.11 price screens above the $75.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals worldwide. The company operates in Brokerage and Risk Management segments.
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Its Brokerage segment offers retail and wholesale insurance and reinsurance brokerage services; assists retail brokers and other non-affiliated brokers in the placement of specialized and hard-to-place insurance; and acts as a brokerage wholesaler, managing general agent, and managing general underwriter for distributing specialized insurance coverages to underwriting enterprises.
This segment performs activities, including marketing, underwriting, issuing policies, collecting premiums, appointing and supervising other agents, paying claims, and negotiating reinsurance; and offers services in the areas of insurance and reinsurance placement, risk of loss management, and management of employer sponsored benefit programs.
The Risk Management segment provides contract claim settlement and administration services; and claims management, loss control consulting, and insurance property appraisal services. The company offers its services through a network of correspondent brokers and consultants.
It serves commercial, industrial, public, religious, and nonprofit entities, as well as underwriting enterprises. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) currently trades at $288.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $75.74, 74% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $78.56 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $288.11 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $46.77, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $56.80 (bear) to $94.67 (bull), the price of $288.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Arthur J Gallagher & Co reported revenue of $13.9B in FY2025 versus $8.2B in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $74.5B Large · P/E ratio 44.0 · P/S ratio 4.83 · EPS (TTM) $6.55 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 11.0% · Return on equity 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at −74%, AJG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$56.80Fair Value $75.74Bull$94.67
Price $288.11 · Downside -73.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.23 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $25.6M and none bought.
SaleWilliam F ZiebellVICE PRESIDENT23,510 shares at $286.63$6.7MNov 4, 2026
SaleChristopher E MeadVICE PRESIDENT5× since Nov 21, 2025: 20,340 shares, avg. $259.44$5.3MNov 2, 2026
SaleDouglas K HowellVP & Chief Financial Officer2× since Dec 22, 2025: 35,996 shares, avg. $272.77$9.8MNov 2, 2026
SaleRichard C CaryController, CAO3× since Nov 18, 2025: 10,000 shares, avg. $243.69$2.4MSep 15, 2026
SaleScott R HudsonVice President2× since Mar 6, 2026: 15,800 shares, avg. $255.34$4.0MSep 2, 2026
SaleWalter D. BayGeneral Counsel2× since Dec 19, 2025: 27,850 shares, avg. $261.50$7.3MAug 24, 2026
SaleJ Patrick Gallagher JrCEO, Director27,450 shares at $230.31$6.3MMar 2, 2026
Plus 25 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.4% vs 10.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.5% a year for the price and +7.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Brokerage scale supports retention advantages yet low ROE and limited innovation constrain evidence of a durable moat amid high leverage.
Main risk: OpenAI insurance tools and similar generative AI applications might let clients compare and obtain policies directly, reducing the need for traditional brokers like Gallagher and pressuring commission revenues in its core model.
Bull case: Gallagher could integrate its proprietary data and AI tools like Blueprint to strengthen advisory services and retain clients in complex segments where human expertise remains essential.
Bear case: If AI tools handle more policy matching and placement, Gallagher's brokerage commissions could face sustained compression as clients shift to direct channels.
Gallagher keeps bolting on niche expertise through small deals like the recent additions in marine claims handling and Irish underwriting. These tuck-ins broaden its risk management reach while the larger integration work continues to pressure margins. Will the added capabilities ultimately lift organic growth enough to offset the near-term dilution from absorbing them?
Compare Arthur J Gallagher & Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 31 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−73.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)17.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.52× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)44.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.20× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arthur J Gallagher & Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AJG
Frequently asked questions
Is Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $75.74 versus a price of $288.11, about 74% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AJG?
Our model-based fair value for Arthur J Gallagher & Co is $75.74 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $288.11.
What is the quality score of AJG?
Arthur J Gallagher & Co has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $75.74 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $56.80, optimistic scenario $94.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arthur J Gallagher & Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $75.74, about 74% lower versus a price of $288.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $56.80, optimistic scenario $94.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Arthur J Gallagher & Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Arthur J Gallagher & Co pay a dividend?
Arthur J Gallagher & Co currently shows a dividend yield of 0.95% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arthur J Gallagher & Co would have to grow free cash flow by +21.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AJG use?
Our models discount Arthur J Gallagher & Co at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arthur J Gallagher & Co that is +21.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arthur J Gallagher & Co grew +14.8 % a year. The price currently implies +21.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arthur J Gallagher & Co (+21.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.40 %: that much free cash flow Arthur J Gallagher & Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arthur J Gallagher & Co it is $75.74 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $288.11. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arthur J Gallagher & Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AJG trades above its calculated fair value: price $288.11, fair value $75.74, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AJG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($288.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($75.74). For Arthur J Gallagher & Co the two are $212.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arthur J Gallagher & Co worth?
The market values Arthur J Gallagher & Co at about $74.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $288.11; our models calculate a fair value of $75.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AJG?
Our models span a range for Arthur J Gallagher & Co: cautious scenario $56.80, base $75.74, optimistic $94.67 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $288.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AJG?
Arthur J Gallagher & Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $75.74 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 31.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 3.2, P/S 4.8, EV/EBITDA 21.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AJG?
The PEG ratio of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 0.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arthur J Gallagher & Co (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 7.2%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AJG from its 52-week high?
Arthur J Gallagher & Co trades at $288.11, at its 52-week high of $288.38 and 51% above the low of $190.83 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $75.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arthur J Gallagher & Co?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Aon plc, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, Brown & Brown, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arthur J Gallagher & Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $288.11, calculated fair value $75.74 (−74%), Quality Score 49/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AJG calculated?
We run Arthur J Gallagher & Co through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $75.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Arthur J Gallagher & Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $288.11. Our model-based fair value is $75.74, about 74% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arthur J Gallagher & Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($94.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Arthur J Gallagher & Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The market capitalisation of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is $74.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 4.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Earnings per share at Arthur J Gallagher & Co are $6.55 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The dividend yield of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 1.0% (payout 42.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The net margin of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 11.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The operating margin of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Revenue at Arthur J Gallagher & Co is growing +25.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Earnings per share at Arthur J Gallagher & Co are growing +49.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) carry?
The net debt of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is $12.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026