Arthur J. Gallagher & Co (AJG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $65.2B
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co
AJG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −1.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 74% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($80.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $129.67 – $344.20 · fair‑value band $48.19 – $80.31 · the $251.74 price screens above the $64.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co (AJG) currently trades at $251.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.24, implying the stock looks roughly 74.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co generated revenue of $14.2B at a net margin of 11.4%. Revenue grew 34.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.0%. Net debt stands at $12.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $48.19 (bear case) to $80.31 (bull case); at $251.74, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -38% fair-value upside, at -74%, AJG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($124.65) versus Dividend Discount ($41.79). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals worldwide. The company operates in Brokerage and Risk Management segments.
Full company description
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals worldwide. The company operates in Brokerage and Risk Management segments. Its Brokerage segment offers retail and wholesale insurance and reinsurance brokerage services; assists retail brokers and other non-affiliated brokers in the placement of specialized and hard-to-place insurance; and acts as a brokerage wholesaler, managing general agent, and managing general underwriter for distributing specialized insurance coverages to underwriting enterprises. This segment performs activities, including marketing, underwriting, issuing policies, collecting premiums, appointing and supervising other agents, paying claims, and negotiating reinsurance; and offers services in the areas of insurance and reinsurance placement, risk of loss management, and management of employer sponsored benefit programs. The Risk Management segment provides contract claim settlement and administration services; and claims management, loss control consulting, and insurance property appraisal services. The company offers its services through a network of correspondent brokers and consultants. It serves commercial, industrial, public, religious, and nonprofit entities, as well as underwriting enterprises. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co reported revenue of $13.9B in FY2025 versus $8.2B in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2021.
AJG screens 74% overvalued. Compare with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AJG Q2 Deep Dive: Organic Growth and M&A Integration Balance Pricing Headwinds
- Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) Appoints Ralph Nicoletti After Loss Of Lead Director
- Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) Could Be 9% Undervalued After Q2 Revenue Growth
- AJG Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates, Revenues Miss on Higher Expenses
Peer Group
Insurance Brokers · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH | $182.18 | $112.25 | -38% |
| Aon plc AON | $367.21 | $224.91 | -39% |
| Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW | $285.12 | $220.92 | -23% |
| Brown & Brown, Inc BRO | $67.66 | $40.43 | -40% |
| Erie Indemnity Company ERIE | $227.31 | $157.43 | -31% |
| PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR | ₹1,574 | ₹188.49 | -88% |
| Neptune Insurance Holdings NP | $31.03 | $3.52 | -89% |
| CorVel Corporation CRVL | $62.29 | $47.59 | -24% |
| Accelerant Holdings ARX | $13.52 | $18.06 | +34% |
| Rasan Information Technology Company 8313 | 130.20 SAR | 63.71 SAR | -51% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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