Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Arthur J Gallagher & Co is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $129.67 – $344.20 · fair‑value band $48.19 – $80.31 · the $236.61 price screens above the $64.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals worldwide. The company operates in Brokerage and Risk Management segments.
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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals worldwide. The company operates in Brokerage and Risk Management segments. Its Brokerage segment offers retail and wholesale insurance and reinsurance brokerage services; assists retail brokers and other non-affiliated brokers in the placement of specialized and hard-to-place insurance; and acts as a brokerage wholesaler, managing general agent, and managing general underwriter for distributing specialized insurance coverages to underwriting enterprises. This segment performs activities, including marketing, underwriting, issuing policies, collecting premiums, appointing and supervising other agents, paying claims, and negotiating reinsurance; and offers services in the areas of insurance and reinsurance placement, risk of loss management, and management of employer sponsored benefit programs. The Risk Management segment provides contract claim settlement and administration services; and claims management, loss control consulting, and insurance property appraisal services. The company offers its services through a network of correspondent brokers and consultants. It serves commercial, industrial, public, religious, and nonprofit entities, as well as underwriting enterprises. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) currently trades at $236.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.24, implying the stock looks roughly 268.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $75.71 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $236.61 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $41.79, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $48.19 (bear) to $80.31 (bull), the price of $236.61 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Arthur J Gallagher & Co reported revenue of $13.9B in FY2025 versus $8.2B in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $61.6B · P/E ratio 38.3 · P/S ratio 4.10 · EPS (TTM) $6.18 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −73%, AJG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $48.19Fair Value $64.24Bull $80.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.55 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6% vs 11%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 18%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Arthur J Gallagher & Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 35 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−76% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)11% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth35% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.52× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)38.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.80× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.59× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF36.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA19.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.84× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)28· sector 60
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)22· sector 87
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arthur J Gallagher & Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AJG
Frequently asked questions
Is Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.24 versus a price of $236.61, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AJG?
Our model-based fair value for Arthur J Gallagher & Co is $64.24 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $236.61.
What is the quality score of AJG?
Arthur J Gallagher & Co has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.24 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $48.19, optimistic scenario $80.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arthur J Gallagher & Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.24, about −73% upside versus a price of $236.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $48.19, optimistic scenario $80.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Arthur J Gallagher & Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Arthur J Gallagher & Co pay a dividend?
Arthur J Gallagher & Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arthur J Gallagher & Co would have to grow free cash flow by +18.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.8 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AJG use?
Our models discount Arthur J Gallagher & Co at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arthur J Gallagher & Co that is +18.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arthur J Gallagher & Co grew +14.8 % a year. The price currently implies +18.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arthur J Gallagher & Co (+18.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.86 %: that much free cash flow Arthur J Gallagher & Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arthur J Gallagher & Co it is $64.24 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $236.61. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arthur J Gallagher & Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, AJG trades above its calculated fair value: price $236.61, fair value $64.24, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AJG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($236.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.24). For Arthur J Gallagher & Co the two are $172.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arthur J Gallagher & Co worth?
The market values Arthur J Gallagher & Co at about $61.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $236.61; our models calculate a fair value of $64.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AJG?
Our models span a range for Arthur J Gallagher & Co: cautious scenario $48.19, base $64.24, optimistic $80.31 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $236.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AJG?
Arthur J Gallagher & Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.3 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $64.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 2.8, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 19.2.
What is the PEG ratio of AJG?
The PEG ratio of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 0.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arthur J Gallagher & Co (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 7.0%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AJG from its 52-week high?
Arthur J Gallagher & Co trades at $236.61, about 29% below its 52-week high of $334.02 and 24% above the low of $190.75 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arthur J Gallagher & Co?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Aon plc, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, Brown & Brown, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arthur J Gallagher & Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $236.61, calculated fair value $64.24 (−73%), Quality Score 39/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AJG calculated?
We run Arthur J Gallagher & Co through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Arthur J Gallagher & Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $236.61. Our model-based fair value is $64.24, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arthur J Gallagher & Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($80.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Arthur J Gallagher & Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The market capitalisation of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is $61.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 4.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Earnings per share at Arthur J Gallagher & Co are $6.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The dividend yield of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 1.1% (payout 42.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The net margin of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
The operating margin of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is 28.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Revenue at Arthur J Gallagher & Co is growing +34.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)?
Earnings per share at Arthur J Gallagher & Co are growing +16.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) carry?
The net debt of Arthur J Gallagher & Co is $12.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 17, 2026