Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc $5.22, price $37.67, upside -86.1%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.83 – $74.92 · fair‑value band $4.69 – $6.82 · the $37.67 price screens above the $5.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. operates as a service provider of specialty products and solutions for insurance brokers, agents, and carriers in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, India, Singapore, and internationally.
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Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. operates as a service provider of specialty products and solutions for insurance brokers, agents, and carriers in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, India, Singapore, and internationally. The company offers distribution, underwriting, product development, administration, and risk management services by acting as a wholesale broker and a managing underwriter or a program administrator with delegated authority from insurance carriers. It serves commercial, industrial, institutional, individual, and government sectors. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN) currently trades at $37.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.22, 86.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $7.72 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $37.67 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.56, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $4.69 (bear) to $6.82 (bull), the price of $37.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +20.8%/yr. Reported net income was $63.4M in FY2025, compounding −1.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.7B · P/E ratio 50.9 · P/S ratio 1.06 · EPS (TTM) $0.7400 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 22.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at −86%, RYAN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.69Fair Value $5.22Bull $6.82
Price $37.67 · Upside -86.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1821 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.9%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 21%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.7% a year for the price and +4.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 38 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Below median
Fair Value upside−86.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.1% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)25.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.08× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)50.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B14.90× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)3.05× · Pricier than median
P/FCF16.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)37· sector 41
PAST (return on equity)88· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 79
DIVIDEND (yield)27· sector 93
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RYAN
Frequently asked questions
Is Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.22 versus a price of $37.67, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RYAN?
Our model-based fair value for Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc is $5.22 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.67.
What is the quality score of RYAN?
Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.22 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.69, optimistic scenario $6.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.22, about −86% upside versus a price of $37.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.69, optimistic scenario $6.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.33% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.5 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RYAN use?
Our models discount Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc that is +0.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc grew +24.5 % a year. The price currently implies +0.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (+0.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.64 %: that much free cash flow Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc it is $5.22 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $37.67. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, RYAN trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.67, fair value $5.22, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RYAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.22). For Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc the two are $32.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc at about $9.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $37.67; our models calculate a fair value of $5.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RYAN?
Our models span a range for Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $4.69, base $5.22, optimistic $6.82 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $37.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RYAN?
Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.9 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 14.9, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 14.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 22.1%, debt of 5.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RYAN from its 52-week high?
Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc trades at $37.67, about 35% below its 52-week high of $57.94 and 29% above the low of $29.27 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co, Aon plc, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $37.67, calculated fair value $5.22 (−86%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RYAN calculated?
We run Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $37.67. Our model-based fair value is $5.22, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
The market capitalisation of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc is $9.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc is 1.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
Earnings per share at Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc are $0.7400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
The dividend yield of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc is 1.3% (payout 67.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
The net margin of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
The operating margin of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc is 25.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
Revenue at Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc is growing +7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)?
Earnings per share at Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc are growing −14.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN) carry?
The net debt of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc is $3.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026