Aon plc (AON) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $78.4B
Aon plc
AON · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +0.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($281.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $217.92 – $404.78 · fair‑value band $168.68 – $281.13 · the $360.75 price screens above the $224.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Aon plc (AON) currently trades at $360.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $224.91, implying the stock looks roughly 37.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aon plc generated revenue of $17.5B at a net margin of 22.5%. Revenue grew 6.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 46.5%. Net debt stands at $15.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $168.68 (bear case) to $281.13 (bull case); at $360.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -38% fair-value upside, at -38%, AON screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($289.97) versus Asset-Based ($29.95). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aon plc operates as a professional services firm in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Risk Capital and Human Capital segments.
Full company description
Aon plc operates as a professional services firm in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Risk Capital and Human Capital segments. The company offers commercial risk solutions comprising retail and insurance brokerage, specialty solutions, global risk consulting, captives management, and affinity programs; health solutions, such as consulting and brokerage, consumer benefits, and talent advisory services; and wealth solutions, including retirement consulting and investments. It also provides treaty and facultative reinsurance; strategy and technology group solutions; insurance-linked securities, capital raising, strategic advice, restructuring, and merger and acquisition services; and risk management products and solutions, capital market solutions, and corporate finance advisory services. In addition, the company offers strategic design advice and actuarial services; pension risk transfer and integrated pension administration; and investment advisory services on developing and maintaining investment programs across various plan types, including defined benefit plans, defined contribution plans, master trusts, and pooled employer plans for corporations, public pensions, endowments, and foundations. Aon plc was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aon plc reported revenue of $17.2B in FY2025 versus $12.2B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was $3.7B in FY2025, compounding +31.0%/yr from FY2021.
AON screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Aon (AON) Reports Q2 2026 Results, Is The Valuation Still Compelling?
- Aon PLC (AON) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and Strategic AI ...
- Aon plc Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Aon Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on New Business Wins, Strong Retention
Peer Group
Insurance Brokers · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH | $182.18 | $112.25 | -38% |
| Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG | $253.09 | $75.58 | -70% |
| Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW | $285.12 | $220.92 | -23% |
| Brown & Brown, Inc BRO | $67.66 | $40.43 | -40% |
| Erie Indemnity Company ERIE | $227.31 | $157.43 | -31% |
| PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR | ₹1,574 | ₹188.49 | -88% |
| Neptune Insurance Holdings NP | $31.03 | $3.52 | -89% |
| CorVel Corporation CRVL | $62.29 | $47.59 | -24% |
| Accelerant Holdings ARX | $13.52 | $18.06 | +34% |
| Rasan Information Technology Company 8313 | 130.20 SAR | 63.71 SAR | -51% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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