Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $11.9B
Erie Indemnity Company
ERIE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price −0.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($196.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $148.70 – $526.55 · fair‑value band $118.07 – $196.78 · the $254.06 price screens above the $157.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) currently trades at $254.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $157.43, implying the stock looks roughly 38.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Erie Indemnity Company generated revenue of $4.1B at a net margin of 14.0%. Revenue grew 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $346M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $118.07 (bear case) to $196.78 (bull case); at $254.06, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -39% fair-value upside, at -38%, ERIE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($233.25) versus Asset-Based ($33.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States.
Full company description
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services that include underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Erie Indemnity Company reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was $559M in FY2025, compounding +17.1%/yr from FY2021.
ERIE screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Underwriting Turnaround and ...
- Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
- Erie Indemnity Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
Peer Group
Insurance Brokers · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH | $182.18 | $112.25 | -38% |
| Aon plc AON | $367.21 | $224.91 | -39% |
| Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG | $253.09 | $75.58 | -70% |
| Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW | $285.12 | $220.92 | -23% |
| Brown & Brown, Inc BRO | $67.66 | $40.43 | -40% |
| PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR | ₹1,574 | ₹188.49 | -88% |
| Neptune Insurance Holdings NP | $31.03 | $3.52 | -89% |
| CorVel Corporation CRVL | $62.29 | $47.59 | -24% |
| Accelerant Holdings ARX | $13.52 | $18.06 | +34% |
| Rasan Information Technology Company 8313 | 130.20 SAR | 63.71 SAR | -51% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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