Amcor Plc (AMC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Amcor Plc stock A$53.10, price A$64.91, that is 18.2% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$49.84 – A$75.40 · fair‑value band A$32.79 – A$69.50 · the A$64.91 price screens above the A$53.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Amcor plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of packaging products in Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates in two segments, Global Flexible Packaging Solutions and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions.
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The Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment develops and supplies flexible packaging products, including polymer resin, aluminum, and fiber based flexible packaging products to the food and beverage, medical and pharmaceutical, fresh produce, snack food, personal care, and other industries.
The Global Rigid Packaging Solutions segment manufactures rigid packaging containers, closures, dispensing and pharma devices, and related products for the food and beverage applications. The company sells its products through its direct sales force.
The company was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Amcor Plc (AMC) currently trades at A$64.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$53.10, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of A$78.49 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$64.91 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$29.76, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$32.79 (bear) to A$69.50 (bull), the price of A$64.91 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Amcor Plc reported revenue of $23.5B in FY2026 versus $14.5B in FY2022, a compound +12.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2026, compounding +7.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$30.2B (≈ $20.8B) Large · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) A$3.37 · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −18%, AMC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$32.79Fair Value A$53.10BullA$69.50
Price A$64.91 · Downside -18.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual IncomeA$33.31A$36.83A$45.0176
FCF DCFA$33.98A$80.49A$159.2275
Growth DCFA$36.03A$78.21A$145.7174
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$33.98A$80.49A$159.2275
Owner EarningsA$37.83A$86.76A$169.5972
5Y Revenue ExitA$24.47A$62.38A$110.4169
5Y EBITDA ExitA$36.20A$84.19A$139.7872
5Y P/E ExitA$10.11A$35.66A$61.9466
10Y Revenue ExitA$24.95A$61.39A$109.6663
10Y EBITDA ExitA$34.86A$77.22A$133.0565
10Y P/E ExitA$17.47A$41.99A$71.0461
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$23.33A$70.39A$93.3265
Lynch FVA$14.99A$21.41A$27.8461
PEG = 1.0A$14.99A$21.41A$27.8457
EPVA$25.69A$38.10A$49.3473
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$39.02A$90.57A$165.7664
DDM Multi-StageA$39.02A$66.41A$93.4966
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$43.75A$58.34A$72.9263
P/S MultipleA$43.75A$58.34A$72.9258
EV/EBITA$32.06A$56.29A$80.5264
EV/EBITDAA$46.25A$75.20A$104.1666
EV/RevenueA$22.37A$49.37A$76.3651
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$36.03A$78.21A$145.7174
Rev-Margin DCFA$24.47A$62.56A$106.0169
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$33.31A$36.83A$45.0176
ROIC CompounderA$25.69A$38.78A$64.0569
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$36.65A$52.35A$68.0667
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+56.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.5% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Per share before 2009divided by the spin-off factor 1.0687
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.5% vs 8.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.3% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Amcor benefits from early synergy capture in the Berry combination and a broader packaging portfolio but shows limited evidence of a durable moat together with high leverage above equity.
Main risk: The EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation could require Amcor to redesign its plastic packaging to meet recyclability, recycled content and PFAS limits, increasing costs or restricting options for customers in Europe.
Bull case: Amcor could expand its AmFiber paper-based and recyclable mono-material lines to meet regulatory demands and win customers shifting away from traditional plastics.
Bear case: If stricter rules and alternative materials gain traction, demand for Amcor's core plastic packaging could shrink as customers adopt paper, aluminum or reusable options to comply or differentiate.
Amcor has captured synergies from the Berry combination ahead of its initial targets, expanding reach across nutrition, health and specialty packaging with a more comprehensive portfolio. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the early momentum compound into sustained efficiency gains, or will the larger integrated operation introduce new frictions that limit further upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−18.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.3% · Above median
Return on assets2.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.18× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.3× · Pricier than median
P/B1.76× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.87× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.6× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Amcor Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMC.AU
Frequently asked questions
Is Amcor Plc (AMC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$53.10 versus a price of A$64.91, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMC?
Our model-based fair value for Amcor Plc is A$53.10 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$64.91.
What is the quality score of AMC?
Amcor Plc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Amcor Plc (AMC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$53.10 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$32.79, optimistic scenario A$69.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Amcor Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$53.10, about 18% lower versus a price of A$64.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$32.79, optimistic scenario A$69.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
Amcor Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $23.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Amcor Plc pay a dividend?
Amcor Plc currently shows a dividend yield of 5.83% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Amcor Plc (AMC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Amcor Plc pays a dividend of A$3.79 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.8%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 24, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1988. The payout ratio is 111% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.04 times. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What growth is priced into Amcor Plc (AMC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Amcor Plc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.8 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMC use?
Our models discount Amcor Plc at 8.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Amcor Plc that is +9.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Amcor Plc (AMC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Amcor Plc grew +12.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Amcor Plc (AMC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Amcor Plc (+9.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.04 %: that much free cash flow Amcor Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Amcor Plc it is A$53.10 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of A$64.91. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Amcor Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, AMC trades above its calculated fair value: price A$64.91, fair value A$53.10, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$64.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$53.10). For Amcor Plc the two are A$11.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Amcor Plc worth?
The market values Amcor Plc at about A$30.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is A$64.91; our models calculate a fair value of A$53.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMC?
Our models span a range for Amcor Plc: cautious scenario A$32.79, base A$53.10, optimistic A$69.50 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price A$64.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMC?
Amcor Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$53.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.8, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 9.7.
What is the PEG ratio of AMC?
The PEG ratio of Amcor Plc is 1.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Amcor Plc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 1.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMC from its 52-week high?
Amcor Plc trades at A$64.91, about 5% below its 52-week high of A$68.60 and 30% above the low of A$49.84 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$53.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Amcor Plc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Amcor Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price A$64.91, calculated fair value A$53.10 (−18%), Quality Score 36/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMC calculated?
We run Amcor Plc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$53.10 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Amcor Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$64.91. Our model-based fair value is A$53.10, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Amcor Plc right now?
Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$32.79 to A$69.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Amcor Plc (AMC) come from?
Earnings per share at Amcor Plc grew +10.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.3 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Amcor Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
The market capitalisation of Amcor Plc is A$30.2B (≈ $20.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Amcor Plc is 0.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
Earnings per share at Amcor Plc are A$3.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
The dividend yield of Amcor Plc is 5.8% (payout 112%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
The net margin of Amcor Plc is 4.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Amcor Plc is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Amcor Plc is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Amcor Plc (AMC)?
The operating margin of Amcor Plc is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Amcor Plc (AMC)?
Revenue at Amcor Plc is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Amcor Plc (AMC)?
Earnings per share at Amcor Plc are growing −8.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Amcor Plc (AMC) carry?
The net debt of Amcor Plc is $12.9B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 10.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026