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Data-driven stock valuation

Aon PLC (AON) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aon PLC stock $120, price $344, that is 65.2% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US · Based in Ireland · ISIN IE00BLP1HW54

AP Aon PLC logo Broad data Nov 3, 2026

Aon PLC

AON · US
Very expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 65% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.2 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 22.3% net margin (TTM)
0.9% dividend yield · Low payout
Wide moat 80/100
Positive coverage
Broad data
Quality 58/100
Insiders bought $6.5M (6M) · sold $1.7M
Fair value $119.87 · Strongly overvalued (−65.2%)
Trails peers (5/14)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Generative AI could commoditise brokerage advisory🚩InsurTech platforms could capture market share🚩Extensive regulation and lawsuits could raise costs
Watch Aon PLC for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$403.86 $239.95 Fair Value $119.87 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $239.95 – $403.86 · fair‑value band $98.49 – $205.98 · the $344.40 price screens above the $119.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Aon plc operates as a professional services firm in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Risk Capital and Human Capital segments.

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The company offers commercial risk solutions comprising retail and insurance brokerage, specialty solutions, global risk consulting, captives management, and affinity programs; health solutions, such as consulting and brokerage, consumer benefits, and talent advisory services; and wealth solutions, including retirement consulting and investments.

It also provides treaty and facultative reinsurance; strategy and technology group solutions; insurance-linked securities, capital raising, strategic advice, restructuring, and merger and acquisition services; and risk management products and solutions, capital market solutions, and corporate finance advisory services.

In addition, the company offers strategic design advice and actuarial services; pension risk transfer and integrated pension administration; and investment advisory services on developing and maintaining investment programs across various plan types, including defined benefit plans, defined contribution plans, master trusts, and pooled employer plans for corporations, public pensions, endowments, and foundations.

Aon plc was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Stock analysis

Aon PLC (AON) currently trades at $344.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $119.87, 65% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $226.45 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $344.40 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $44.48, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $98.49 (bear) to $205.98 (bull), the price of $344.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Aon PLC reported revenue of $17.2B in FY2025 versus $12.2B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was $3.7B in FY2025, compounding +31.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $73.9B Large · P/E ratio 18.2 · P/S ratio 4.21 · EPS (TTM) $18.93 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 22.3% · Return on equity 44.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 80 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at −65%, AON screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $98.49 Fair Value $119.87 Bull $205.98
Price $344.40 · Downside -65.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($13.48 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $98.49 $119.87 $205.98 74
DDM Multi-Stage $28.48 $44.48 $62.49 66
Gordon GGM $28.48 $59.09 $104.18 65
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $28.48 $59.09 $104.18 65
DDM Multi-Stage $28.48 $44.48 $62.49 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $169.83 $226.45 $283.06 63
Economic Profit
Residual Income $98.49 $119.87 $205.98 74

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 57
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 69
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 8
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 61
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 77
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 33
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 51
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 78
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $6.5M, on Sep 2, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $1.7M.

  • BuyLester B KnightDirector2× since Feb 10, 2026: 24,000 shares, avg. $326.11$7.8MSep 2, 2026
  • SaleDarren ZeidelGeneral Counsel5× since Feb 17, 2026: 13,790 shares, avg. $342.21$4.7MJul 28, 2026

Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.8% vs 13.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 25%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

AON screens overvalued: fair value 65% below the price. Compare with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Moderate moat supported by scale and high returns in insurance brokerage, offset by limited signals on human capital and innovation.
Main risk: AI placement platforms or analytics tools could allow clients or insurers to bypass Aon or reduce demand for its middle-market and health solutions services, squeezing commissions and margins.
Bull case: Aon could integrate its data platforms and AI tools more deeply into client advisory to deliver superior risk insights and efficiency gains that strengthen its intermediary role.
Bear case: AI could enable direct placement or automated benefits administration, so Aon might lose revenue in middle-market and health segments as clients shift to lower-cost alternatives.
Aon is expanding leadership roles in its risk capital business to drive middle market growth ahead of integrating a major acquisition. This targets new segments and potential synergies in insurance brokerage but layers operational complexity onto an already broad global platform. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will these initiatives unlock meaningful scale advantages or mainly increase execution risks?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 31 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Below median
Fair Value upside −65.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 44.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 22.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 23.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 2.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.54× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 18.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 7.74× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 4.21× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 23.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.37× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)11 · sector 26
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 69
HEALTH (low debt)23 · sector 74
DIVIDEND (yield)18 · sector 67

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Steadfast Group SDF A$5.81 A$3.15 −46% vs AON
Brown & Brown, Inc BRO $74.38 $35.14 −53% vs AON
CorVel Corporation CRVL $85.91 $39.94 −54% vs AON
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW $336.51 $146.46 −56% vs AON
Erie Indemnity Company ERIE $285.63 $113.32 −60% vs AON
AUB Group AUB A$30.34 A$11.80 −61% vs AON
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH $209.43 $78.33 −63% vs AON
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG $288.11 $75.74 −74% vs AON
PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR ₹967.00 ₹137.52 −86% vs AON
Ryan Specialty Holdings RYAN $48.26 $5.30 −89% vs AON

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Aon PLC: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aon PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AON

Frequently asked questions

Is Aon PLC (AON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $119.87 versus a price of $344.40, about 65% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AON?
Our model-based fair value for Aon PLC is $119.87 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $344.40.
What is the quality score of AON?
Aon PLC has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aon PLC (AON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $119.87 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $98.49, optimistic scenario $205.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aon PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $119.87, about 65% lower versus a price of $344.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $98.49, optimistic scenario $205.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aon PLC (AON)?
Aon PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $17.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Aon PLC pay a dividend?
Aon PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 0.89% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aon PLC (AON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aon PLC it is $119.87 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $344.40. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aon PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, AON trades above its calculated fair value: price $344.40, fair value $119.87, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($344.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($119.87). For Aon PLC the two are $224.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aon PLC worth?
The market values Aon PLC at about $73.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $344.40; our models calculate a fair value of $119.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AON?
Our models span a range for Aon PLC: cautious scenario $98.49, base $119.87, optimistic $205.98 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $344.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AON?
Aon PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $119.87 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 9 of the years ex one-offs: 25.1. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 7.7, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 14.8.
What is the PEG ratio of AON?
The PEG ratio of Aon PLC is 2.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aon PLC (AON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aon PLC (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 44.7%, debt of 1.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AON from its 52-week high?
Aon PLC trades at $344.40, about 9% below its 52-week high of $380.39 and 28% above the low of $269.45 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $119.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aon PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, Brown & Brown, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aon PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $344.40, calculated fair value $119.87 (−65%), Quality Score 58/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AON calculated?
We run Aon PLC through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $119.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Aon PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aon PLC (AON)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $344.40. Our model-based fair value is $119.87, about 65% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aon PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($205.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($98.49 to $205.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Aon PLC (AON) come from?
Earnings per share at Aon PLC grew +12.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.1 %, EBIT margin +4.5 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Aon PLC

How large is the market capitalisation of Aon PLC (AON)?
The market capitalisation of Aon PLC is $73.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aon PLC (AON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aon PLC is 4.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aon PLC (AON)?
Earnings per share at Aon PLC are $18.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aon PLC (AON)?
The dividend yield of Aon PLC is 0.9% (payout 16.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aon PLC (AON)?
The net margin of Aon PLC is 22.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aon PLC (AON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aon PLC is 44.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aon PLC (AON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aon PLC is 9.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aon PLC (AON)?
The operating margin of Aon PLC is 23.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aon PLC (AON)?
Revenue at Aon PLC is growing +2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aon PLC (AON)?
Earnings per share at Aon PLC are growing −3.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Aon PLC (AON) generate?
The free cash flow of Aon PLC is $3.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Aon PLC (AON) carry?
The net debt of Aon PLC is $15.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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