Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd stock $8.93, price $10.00, that is 10.7% below the price, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.31 – $14.35 · fair‑value band $8.30 – $10.67 · the $10.00 price screens above the $8.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells beer, alcohol and non-alcohol beverages, and food products in Japan, Europe, Oceania, and Southeast Asia.
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The company offers alcoholic beverage products, including beers, non-alcohol beer, new genre, wines, shochu, whiskey and spirits, ready-to-drink beverages, and happoshu products.
It also provides non-alcoholic beverage products beverages, such as carbonated drinks, coffee, tea, lactic acid bacteria drinks, and mineral water; and ciders.
It offers its products primarily under the Asahi Super Dry, Peroni Nastro Azzurro, Kozel, Pilsner Urquell, Grolsch, Great Northern, Victoria Bitter, Carlton Draught, Tyskie, Ursus, Radegast, London Pride, Asahi Nama Beer, Nikka, Asahi Zeitaku Shibori, Viper, Good Tides, Vodka Cruiser, Long White, Birell, Dry Zero, Great Northern Zero, Mitsuya, Wilkinson, Calpis, Wonda, Cool Ridge, Goodday, Mintia, Ippon Manzoku Bar, Dear-Natura, Amana Foods, and Wakodo brand names.
The company was formerly known as Asahi Breweries, Ltd. and changed its name to Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. in July 2011. Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF) currently trades at $10.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.93, 11% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $11.82 per share, and 5 of the 14 models we run sit above the $10.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.71, and 9 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.30 (bear) to $10.67 (bull), the price of $10.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of ¥2.9T in FY2025 versus ¥2.2T in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥122B in FY2025, compounding −5.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $14.7B Large · P/E ratio 14.1 · P/S ratio 0.59 · EPS (TTM) $0.7100 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at −11%, ASBRF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.30Fair Value $8.93Bull$10.67
Price $10.00 · Downside -10.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3264 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−19.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22.7% vs −6.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Modest scale advantages in a competitive sector are offset by low ROE and thin margins, while portfolio diversification into growth markets like East Africa contends with domestic constraints.
Main risk: Japan's October 2026 unification of beer-type beverage taxes at a single rate could reduce demand for happoshu and new-genre products while forcing costly portfolio shifts toward standard beer and squeezing domestic margins and volumes.
Asahi keeps expanding its beer portfolio into growth markets like East Africa while its core Japanese operations face a new antitrust probe over suspected price coordination. This setup pits portfolio diversification against potential limits on domestic pricing power. Will the international side deliver enough to offset any regulatory constraints at home, or will the investigation weigh more on margins?
Compare Asahi Group Holdings Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 55 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−10.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.6% · Below median
Return on assets2.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)13.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Asahi Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASBRF
Frequently asked questions
Is Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.93 versus the last price from Oct 30, 2026 of $10.00, about 11% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASBRF?
Our model-based fair value for Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is $8.93 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 30, 2026): $10.00.
What is the quality score of ASBRF?
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.93 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.30, optimistic scenario $10.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Asahi Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.93, about 11% lower versus the last price from Oct 30, 2026 of $10.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.30, optimistic scenario $10.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.0T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Asahi Group Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.28% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of $0.328 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.3%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2002. The payout ratio is 62.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Asahi Group Holdings Ltd it is $8.93 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $10.00. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Asahi Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ASBRF trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.00, fair value $8.93, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASBRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.93). For Asahi Group Holdings Ltd the two are $1.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Asahi Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Asahi Group Holdings Ltd at about $14.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $10.00; our models calculate a fair value of $8.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASBRF?
Our models span a range for Asahi Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario $8.30, base $8.93, optimistic $10.67 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $10.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASBRF?
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ASBRF?
The PEG ratio of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is 0.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASBRF from its 52-week high?
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd trades at $10.00, about 17% below its 52-week high of $12.05 and 9% above the low of $9.17 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Asahi Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Constellation Brands, Inc, Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Asahi Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $10.00, calculated fair value $8.93 (−11%), Quality Score 35/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASBRF calculated?
We run Asahi Group Holdings Ltd through 14 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $8.93 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Asahi Group Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 30, 2026 and stands at $10.00. Our model-based fair value is $8.93, about 11% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Asahi Group Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF) come from?
Earnings per share at Asahi Group Holdings Ltd grew −2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.9 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
The market capitalisation of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is $14.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is 0.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
Earnings per share at Asahi Group Holdings Ltd are $0.7100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
The dividend yield of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is 3.3% (payout 46.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
The net margin of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is 4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
The operating margin of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
Revenue at Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is growing +12.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF)?
Earnings per share at Asahi Group Holdings Ltd are growing +114% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF) generate?
The free cash flow of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is −¥18.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (ASBRF) carry?
The net debt of Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is ¥683B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026