Asahi Group (ASBRF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $14.3B
Asahi Group
ASBRF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +5.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 27% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($8.13 to $17.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $8.13 (bear) to $17.92 (bull), base $13.11. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 42/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.31 – $14.35 · fair‑value band $8.13 – $17.92 · the $10.29 price screens below the $13.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Asahi Group (ASBRF) currently trades at $10.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.11, implying the stock looks roughly 27.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $2.9T. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at $1.2T. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.13 (bear case) to $17.92 (bull case); at $10.29, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at 27%, ASBRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($14.90) versus Earnings-Based ($6.39). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells beer, alcohol and non-alcohol beverages, and food products in Japan, Europe, Oceania, and Southeast Asia.
Full company description
Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells beer, alcohol and non-alcohol beverages, and food products in Japan, Europe, Oceania, and Southeast Asia. The company offers alcoholic beverage products, including beers, non-alcohol beer, new genre, wines, shochu, whiskey and spirits, ready-to-drink beverages, and happoshu products. It also provides non-alcoholic beverage products beverages, such as carbonated drinks, coffee, tea, lactic acid bacteria drinks, and mineral water; and ciders. It offers its products primarily under the Asahi Super Dry, Peroni Nastro Azzurro, Kozel, Pilsner Urquell, Grolsch, Great Northern, Victoria Bitter, Carlton Draught, Tyskie, Ursus, Radegast, London Pride, Asahi Nama Beer, Nikka, Asahi Zeitaku Shibori, Viper, Good Tides, Vodka Cruiser, Long White, Birell, Dry Zero, Great Northern Zero, Mitsuya, Wilkinson, Calpis, Wonda, Cool Ridge, Goodday, Mintia, Ippon Manzoku Bar, Dear-Natura, Amana Foods, and Wakodo brand names. The company was formerly known as Asahi Breweries, Ltd. and changed its name to Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. in July 2011. Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Asahi Group reported revenue of $2.9T in FY2024 versus $2.0T in FY2020, a compound +9.7%/yr. Reported net income was $192B in FY2024, compounding +19.9%/yr from FY2020.
Watch ASBRF: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Asahi Group Announces Debut in India’s Non-alcohol/Non-carbonated Beverage Market
- A Look At Asahi Group Holdings (TSE:2502) Valuation After Prolonged Share Price Weakness
- EMEA Alcoholic Beverages Sector Sponsorship Report 2025: Beer Brands Dominate with Heineken Leading Spending, Far Outpacing Diageo and Asahi
- Asahi Group Holdings (TSE:2502) Valuation Check After Extended Share Price Weakness
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI | €73.62 | €41.60 | -43% |
| Ambev S.A ABEV | 14,120 ARS | 6,060 ARS | -57% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD | 222.91 MXN | 201.74 MXN | -9% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €77.24 | €65.06 | -16% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $135.72 | $177.43 | +31% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,125 | kr 607.30 | -46% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €71.20 | €72.67 | +2% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥53.60 | ¥63.65 | +19% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.58 | HK$6.05 | -8% |
| Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA | C$63.10 | C$74.42 | +18% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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