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Data-driven stock valuation

Grupo Aval (AVAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Grupo Aval stock $4.51, price $4.31, upside +4.6%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US · Based in Colombia

GA Grupo Aval logo Some data Nov 6, 2026

Grupo Aval

AVAL · US
Fairly valued, in an uptrend

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Solidly profitable · 12.2% net margin (TTM)
3.2% dividend yield · Low payout
Revenue last quarter +19% vs. a year ago.
Fair value $4.51 · Fairly valued
Quality 50/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +30.5 %/yr in COP)
Moderate moat 45/100 · thin data
Some data
Trails peers (4/13)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$5.68 $1.64 Fair Value $4.51 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.64 – $5.68 · fair‑value band $4.07 – $5.56 · the $4.31 price screens below the $4.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. provides a range of financial services and products in Colombia and Central America. The company offers traditional deposit services and products, including checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, and other deposits.

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It also provides commercial loans comprising general purpose loans, working capital loans, leases, loans funded by development banks, corporate credit cards, and overdraft loans; consumer loans, such as payroll loans, personal loans, automobile and other vehicle loans, credit cards, overdrafts, leases, and general-purpose loans; and microcredit and mortgage loans.

In addition, the company offers pension and severance fund management services; investment banking services, including services relating to capital markets, mergers and acquisitions, and delivering financial consulting services; mobile and online banking services; and bancassurance, insurance, trust, bonded warehousing, real estate escrow, merchandise and document storage and deposit, customs agency, cargo management, surety bond and merchandise distribution, and payment and collection services, as well as provides deposit and lending operations in foreign currencies.

Further, it is involved in equity investments in various sectors, including infrastructure, energy and gas, agribusiness, and hotels; and providing treasury operations. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Bogotá, Colombia.

Stock analysis

Grupo Aval (AVAL) currently trades at $4.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.51, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.4%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $5.42 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $4.31 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.50, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $4.07 (bear) to $5.56 (bull), the price of $4.31 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Grupo Aval reported revenue of 42.3T COP in FY2025 versus 20.7T COP in FY2021, a compound +19.6%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6T COP in FY2025, compounding −16.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $5.6B Mid · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) $0.3800 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 5%, AVAL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.07 Fair Value $4.51 Bull $5.56
Price $4.31 · Upside +4.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3259 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $4.12 $4.51 $5.55 76
DDM Multi-Stage $0.7500 $1.35 $1.71 66
Gordon GGM $0.7500 $1.64 $2.76 65
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.7500 $1.64 $2.76 65
DDM Multi-Stage $0.7500 $1.35 $1.71 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $4.07 $5.42 $6.78 63
Economic Profit
Residual Income $4.12 $4.51 $5.55 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 20
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 42
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 19
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 84
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 67
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 38
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 39
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in COP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted. Measured in COP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13.1% vs −3.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Grupo Aval's integration of retail banking assets expands its customer base and lending focus, yet limited signals of durable advantage and modest profitability constrain overall business quality.
Main risk: Macroeconomic headwinds in Colombia could weigh on the stability of the expanded retail lending franchise and the guided loan growth.
Grupo Aval has integrated Itaú's retail banking assets into Banco de Bogotá, bringing in more than 250,000 customers and tilting the group toward stronger retail lending. Management still guides for 10.5 percent overall loan growth this year but expects a lower return on equity as one-time trading gains fade. Will the retail push deliver enough stability, or will macroeconomic headwinds in Colombia weigh more heavily?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside +4.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 10.1% · Below median
Return on assets 0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 23.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 18.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.34× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 12.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.99× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 2.63× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 24.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 30.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)39 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)93 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)40 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)63 · sector 53

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs AVAL
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs AVAL
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs AVAL
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs AVAL
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs AVAL
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs AVAL
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs AVAL
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs AVAL
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs AVAL
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs AVAL

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Grupo Aval: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

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Frequently asked questions

Is Grupo Aval (AVAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.51 versus a price of $4.31, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AVAL?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Aval is $4.51 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.31.
What is the quality score of AVAL?
Grupo Aval has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.51 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.07, optimistic scenario $5.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Aval stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.51, about +5% upside versus a price of $4.31 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $4.07, optimistic scenario $5.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Grupo Aval pay a dividend?
Grupo Aval currently shows a dividend yield of 3.17% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Grupo Aval (AVAL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Grupo Aval has a dividend yield of 3.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 2, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2014. The payout ratio is 18.3% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 36.3%). Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Aval it is $4.51 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $4.31. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 3 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit).
Is Grupo Aval stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AVAL trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.31, fair value $4.51, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.51). For Grupo Aval the two are $0.2000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Aval worth?
The market values Grupo Aval at about $5.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $4.31; our models calculate a fair value of $4.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVAL?
Our models span a range for Grupo Aval: cautious scenario $4.07, base $4.51, optimistic $5.56 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $4.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVAL?
Grupo Aval trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.51 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 5.2 (reported for FY2025: 10.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 5.3. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 30.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Aval (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 3.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVAL from its 52-week high?
Grupo Aval trades at $4.31, about 24% below its 52-week high of $5.68 and 24% above the low of $3.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Aval?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Aval stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $4.31, calculated fair value $4.51 (+5%), Quality Score 50/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVAL calculated?
We run Grupo Aval through 4 models from 3 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.51 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Aval currently trades 4% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $4.31. Our model-based fair value is $4.51, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Aval right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Grupo Aval (AVAL) come from?
Earnings per share at Grupo Aval grew −7.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin −11.1 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Grupo Aval

How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Aval is $5.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Aval is 0.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Aval are $0.3800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The dividend yield of Grupo Aval is 3.2% (payout 18.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 36.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The net margin of Grupo Aval is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Aval is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Aval is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Revenue at Grupo Aval is growing +18.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Aval are growing +16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Grupo Aval (AVAL) generate?
The free cash flow of Grupo Aval is 1.5T COP (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Grupo Aval (AVAL) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Aval is 49.3T COP (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 33.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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