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Data-driven stock valuation

American Water Works (AWK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of American Water Works stock $64.66, price $152, that is 57.6% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Utilities US

AW American Water Works logo Broad data Nov 5, 2026

American Water Works

AWK · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 58% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 21.4% net margin (TTM)
Wide moat 72/100
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Quality 43/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.4 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
2.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Fair value $64.66 · Strongly overvalued (−57.6%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/14)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Regulatory hurdles on Essential merger🚩Municipal condemnation of systems🚩Stricter water quality rules on contaminants
Watch American Water Works for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$170.16 $107.03 Fair Value $64.66 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $107.03 – $170.16 · fair‑value band $48.50 – $97.78 · the $152.42 price screens above the $64.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

American Water Works Company, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides water and wastewater services in the United States.

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It offers water and wastewater services on military installations; and undertakes contracts with municipal customers, primarily to operate and manage water and wastewater facilities, as well as offers other related services.

The company also operates approximately 80 surface water treatment plants; 520 groundwater treatment plants; 170 wastewater treatment plants; 55,000 miles of transmission, distribution, and collection mains and pipes; 1,200 groundwater wells; 1,800 water and wastewater pumping stations; 1,100 treated water storage facilities; and 75 dams.

In addition, it offers water and wastewater services to 14 states serving approximately 3.6 million active customers.

The company serves residential customers; commercial customers, including food and beverage providers, commercial property developers and proprietors, and energy suppliers; fire service and private fire customers; industrial customers, such as large-scale manufacturers, mining, and production operations; public authorities comprising government buildings and other public sector facilities, such as schools and universities; and other utilities and community water and wastewater systems.

The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Camden, New Jersey.

Stock analysis

American Water Works (AWK) currently trades at $152.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.66, 58% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $87.17 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $152.42 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $30.30, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $48.50 (bear) to $97.78 (bull), the price of $152.42 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

American Water Works reported revenue of $5.1B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding −3.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $29.9B Large · P/E ratio 26.6 · P/S ratio 5.65 · EPS (TTM) $5.72 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 21.4% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −58%, AWK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $48.50 Fair Value $64.66 Bull $97.78
Price $152.42 · Downside -57.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.99 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $49.68 $56.17 $72.33 76
EPV $17.34 $32.10 $45.34 71
ROIC Compounder $17.34 $32.10 $45.34 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $38.02 $105.72 $138.93 65
Lynch FV $21.21 $30.30 $39.39 61
PEG = 1.0 $21.21 $30.30 $39.39 57
EPV $17.34 $32.10 $45.34 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $31.43 $70.63 $123.43 65
DDM Multi-Stage $31.43 $51.06 $73.28 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $75.47 $100.63 $125.79 63
P/S Multiple $48.50 $64.66 $80.83 58
P/B Multiple $65.76 $87.69 $109.61 55
EV/EBIT $26.87 $62.33 $97.78 62
EV/EBITDA $25.15 $60.04 $94.92 63
EV/Revenue n/a n/a $4.56 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $24.36 $32.64 $48.71 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $49.68 $56.17 $72.33 76
ROIC Compounder $17.34 $32.10 $45.34 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $61.02 $87.17 $113.32 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 36
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 48
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 18
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 31
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 89
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 56
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 79
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 77
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+11.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.9% vs 8.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 37%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

AWK screens overvalued: fair value 58% below the price. Compare with Essential Utilities, Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: American Water maintains a moderate moat from regulatory barriers that supports stable returns via ongoing customer additions and rate base growth, yet high leverage and limited innovation constrain its edge.
Main risk: Municipalities could use eminent domain to condemn utility systems in certain territories such as Monterey, California, reducing the rate base and customer base.
Bull case: The company could leverage its scale and engineering expertise to win more municipal contracts or acquisitions while using data tools to cut operating costs and meet new quality standards efficiently.
Bear case: Repeated condemnation actions or unrecovered costs from stricter contaminant rules could shrink the regulated asset base and erode margins in multiple states over time.
American Water keeps adding customers through small regulated acquisitions and organic growth, steadily expanding the rate base that funds infrastructure spending and supports allowed returns. This model delivers predictable earnings in a stable utility setting, yet our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will ongoing customer additions and capex translate into stronger growth than the regulatory hurdles around the Essential merger can slow down?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −57.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 10.1% · Above median
Return on assets 3.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 21.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 40.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 6.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.18× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 26.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.76× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 5.65× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 14.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.50× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)31 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)40 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)41 · sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)44 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co 600461 ¥8.62 ¥17.16 +99% vs AWK
Grandblue Environment Co 600323 ¥30.59 ¥57.09 +87% vs AWK
Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 ¥7.29 ¥9.09 +25% vs AWK
Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group 600008 ¥2.80 ¥3.43 +23% vs AWK
Zhongshan Public Utilities Group 000685 ¥10.79 ¥11.03 +2% vs AWK
Chongqing Water Group 601158 ¥4.15 ¥2.39 −42% vs AWK
Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG $46.05 $23.33 −49% vs AWK
California Water Service Group CWT $50.83 $24.60 −52% vs AWK
American States Water Company AWR $88.84 $38.77 −56% vs AWK
H2O America HTO $62.63 $27.06 −57% vs AWK

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American Water Works: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "American Water Works Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AWK

Frequently asked questions

Is American Water Works (AWK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.66 versus a price of $152.42, about 58% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AWK?
Our model-based fair value for American Water Works is $64.66 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $152.42.
What is the quality score of AWK?
American Water Works has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Water Works (AWK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.66 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $48.50, optimistic scenario $97.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Water Works stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.66, about 58% lower versus a price of $152.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $48.50, optimistic scenario $97.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American Water Works (AWK)?
American Water Works reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does American Water Works pay a dividend?
American Water Works currently shows a dividend yield of 2.22% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of American Water Works (AWK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Water Works it is $64.66 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $152.42. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is American Water Works stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, AWK trades above its calculated fair value: price $152.42, fair value $64.66, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AWK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($152.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.66). For American Water Works the two are $87.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Water Works worth?
The market values American Water Works at about $29.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $152.42; our models calculate a fair value of $64.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AWK?
Our models span a range for American Water Works: cautious scenario $48.50, base $64.66, optimistic $97.78 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $152.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AWK?
American Water Works trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $64.66 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 30.1. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 2.8, P/S 5.7, EV/EBITDA 14.6.
What is the PEG ratio of AWK?
The PEG ratio of American Water Works is 2.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of American Water Works (AWK)?
Balance-sheet figures for American Water Works (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 1.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AWK from its 52-week high?
American Water Works trades at $152.42, at its 52-week high of $152.42 and 27% above the low of $120.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Water Works?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, American States Water Company, Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Water Works stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $152.42, calculated fair value $64.66 (−58%), Quality Score 43/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AWK calculated?
We run American Water Works through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. American Water Works itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Water Works (AWK)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $152.42. Our model-based fair value is $64.66, about 58% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Water Works right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($97.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($48.50 to $97.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of American Water Works (AWK) come from?
Earnings per share at American Water Works grew +8.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate +2.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of American Water Works

How large is the market capitalisation of American Water Works (AWK)?
The market capitalisation of American Water Works is $29.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of American Water Works (AWK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American Water Works is 5.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American Water Works (AWK)?
Earnings per share at American Water Works are $5.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of American Water Works (AWK)?
The dividend yield of American Water Works is 2.2% (payout 59.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of American Water Works (AWK)?
The net margin of American Water Works is 21.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of American Water Works (AWK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of American Water Works is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Water Works (AWK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Water Works is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American Water Works (AWK)?
The operating margin of American Water Works is 40.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American Water Works (AWK)?
Revenue at American Water Works is growing +6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American Water Works (AWK)?
Earnings per share at American Water Works are growing +8.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does American Water Works (AWK) generate?
The free cash flow of American Water Works is −$1.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does American Water Works (AWK) carry?
The net debt of American Water Works is $15.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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