BF Holding SpA (BFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BF Holding SpA stock €1.91, price €7.80, that is 75.5% below the price, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.01 – €9.96 · fair‑value band €1.37 – €2.04 · the €7.80 price screens above the €1.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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B.F. S.p.A. operates in the agro-industrial industry in Italy. The company offers pasta and rice products, herbal teas, legumes, cereals, tomato and oil products, baked goods, eggs, pizza and oilseed products, fruits, flours, and frozen vegetables; and fertilizers and pesticides.
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It is also involved in the production and marketing of couscous; and production of forage crops and feed products. The company markets its products under the Le Stagioni d'Italia, Zorzi, Tenuta il Cicalino, Fabianelli, Bia, and Ghigi brands.
The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Jolanda di Savoia, Italy.
Stock analysis
BF Holding SpA (BFG) currently trades at €7.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.91, 76% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €1.96 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the €7.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €0.9100, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €1.37 (bear) to €2.04 (bull), the price of €7.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
BF Holding SpA reported revenue of €1.6B in FY2025 versus €298M in FY2021, a compound +53.0%/yr. Reported net income was €11.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €2.0B Mid · P/E ratio 156.0 · P/S ratio 1.39 · EPS (TTM) €0.0500 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 3.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −76%, BFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€1.37Fair Value €1.91Bull€2.04
Price €7.80 · Downside -75.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+78.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +62.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+65.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+32.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.62.8% vs 3.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → −1%
2025 sits 61% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
AI conclusion: The agri-tech platform with data tools on seed genetics and animal nutrition forms the main strength, while sustained negative cash flows and low returns remain the key weakness in this commoditized sector.
Main risk: The capital intensity of the tech pivot risks hitting returns through ongoing integration costs that could outpace platform scaling.
BF is building an agri-tech platform with the Diagram acquisition, layering digital data tools onto its seed genetics and animal nutrition efforts to serve larger land areas and extract value from agronomic, social and climate insights. Strong recent revenue and profit growth came largely from the Martini deal and perimeter expansion, yet the capital intensity of this tech pivot sits alongside our models viewing the stock as overvalued. Will the data platform scale faster than integration costs pressure returns?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 291 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−75.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.2% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)40.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)156.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.55× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.39× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA26.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)13· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)19· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is BF Holding SpA (BFG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1.91 versus a price of €7.80, about 76% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BFG?
Our model-based fair value for BF Holding SpA is €1.91 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €7.80.
What is the quality score of BFG?
BF Holding SpA has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1.91 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.37, optimistic scenario €2.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BF Holding SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1.91, about 76% lower versus a price of €7.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €1.37, optimistic scenario €2.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
BF Holding SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does BF Holding SpA pay a dividend?
BF Holding SpA currently shows a dividend yield of 0.97% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of BF Holding SpA (BFG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
BF Holding SpA pays a dividend of €0.076 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 28, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2020. The payout ratio is 152% of earnings. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BF Holding SpA it is €1.91 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €7.80. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is BF Holding SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, BFG trades above its calculated fair value: price €7.80, fair value €1.91, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BFG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€7.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1.91). For BF Holding SpA the two are €5.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BF Holding SpA worth?
The market values BF Holding SpA at about €2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €7.80; our models calculate a fair value of €1.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BFG?
Our models span a range for BF Holding SpA: cautious scenario €1.37, base €1.91, optimistic €2.04 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €7.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BFG?
BF Holding SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 156.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €1.91 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 322.6. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 26.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
Balance-sheet figures for BF Holding SpA (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 3.2%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BFG from its 52-week high?
BF Holding SpA trades at €7.80, about 22% below its 52-week high of €9.96 and 97% above the low of €3.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BF Holding SpA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Muyuan Foods Group, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Tyson Foods, Inc, Bunge Global SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BF Holding SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €7.80, calculated fair value €1.91 (−76%), Quality Score 33/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BFG calculated?
We run BF Holding SpA through 12 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €1.91 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. BF Holding SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €7.80. Our model-based fair value is €1.91, about 76% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BF Holding SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€2.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of BF Holding SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
The market capitalisation of BF Holding SpA is €2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BF Holding SpA is 1.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
Earnings per share at BF Holding SpA are €0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 156.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
The dividend yield of BF Holding SpA is 1.0% (payout 152%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
The net margin of BF Holding SpA is 0.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BF Holding SpA is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BF Holding SpA is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
The operating margin of BF Holding SpA is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
Revenue at BF Holding SpA is growing +40.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BF Holding SpA (BFG)?
Earnings per share at BF Holding SpA are growing +270% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does BF Holding SpA (BFG) generate?
The free cash flow of BF Holding SpA is −€81.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does BF Holding SpA (BFG) carry?
The net debt of BF Holding SpA is €43.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026