Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bank of Ireland Group PLC stock €12.15, price €19.28, that is 37.0% below the price, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.79 – €19.97 · fair‑value band €9.11 – €16.61 · the €19.28 price screens above the €12.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Bank of Ireland Group plc provides banking and other financial services in the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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It offers current and savings accounts, demand and notice accounts, and business accounts and deposits; personal, car, home improvement and energy upgrade, top-up loans, and student loans, as well as overdrafts and mortgages; and business and farming loans, green business, insurance premium finance, invoice finance, hire purchase, and leasing services.
The company also provides international payments and credit cards; international money transfer services; investment products; premier and private banking services; and business protection, mortgage protection, income protection, home protection, and protection for individuals and families.
In addition, it provides home, car, travel, and life insurance products. It offers its products and services through its bank branches, banking app, and online and phone banking channels. Bank of Ireland Group plc was founded in 1783 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Stock analysis
Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG) currently trades at €19.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.15, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €13.25 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €19.28 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €7.74, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €9.11 (bear) to €16.61 (bull), the price of €19.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Bank of Ireland Group PLC reported revenue of €4.2B in FY2025 versus €6.1B in FY2021, a compound −8.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.2B in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €18.4B Large · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 4.36 · EPS (TTM) €1.35 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 32.7% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −37%, BIRG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€9.11Fair Value €12.15Bull€16.61
Price €19.28 · Downside -37.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.4332 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −17.5% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +18.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +13.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 13.6% / −14.0%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.67 per share, median 5.94 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.7% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (37 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: The regional bank benefits from moderate local scale but suffers from limited differentiation signals and weak innovation data, resulting in an average moat profile.
Main risk: Neobanks such as Revolut could draw more Irish customers to digital accounts and payments away from Bank of Ireland, cutting deposits and fee income.
Bull case: Bank of Ireland could deepen digital platforms and AI applications to retain customers and expand into new services while partnering with fintechs.
Bear case: Continued fintech gains and AI-driven commoditisation might shrink Bank of Ireland's retail deposit base and fee margins in Ireland and the UK.
Bank of Ireland is winding down its US leveraged acquisition finance unit and using risk transfer deals to shift credit exposure on the remaining loans. Recent investor write-downs on some of those transfers show that performance issues in the underlying book can still create pressure. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the 2028 growth and sustainability push deliver enough to offset any ongoing drag from these portfolios?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−37.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.6% · Below median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)32.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)52.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.42× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)4.36× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow5.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA1.5× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)67· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)42· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)67· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)87· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank of Ireland Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BIRG
Frequently asked questions
Is Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.15 versus a price of €19.28, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BIRG?
Our model-based fair value for Bank of Ireland Group PLC is €12.15 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €19.28.
What is the quality score of BIRG?
Bank of Ireland Group PLC has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.15 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.11, optimistic scenario €16.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank of Ireland Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.15, about 37% lower versus a price of €19.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €9.11, optimistic scenario €16.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
Bank of Ireland Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Bank of Ireland Group PLC pay a dividend?
Bank of Ireland Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 4.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank of Ireland Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.7 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BIRG use?
Our models discount Bank of Ireland Group PLC at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for Ireland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank of Ireland Group PLC that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank of Ireland Group PLC grew -0.7 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank of Ireland Group PLC (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.19 %: that much free cash flow Bank of Ireland Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank of Ireland Group PLC it is €12.15 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of €19.28. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank of Ireland Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, BIRG trades above its calculated fair value: price €19.28, fair value €12.15, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BIRG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€19.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.15). For Bank of Ireland Group PLC the two are €7.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank of Ireland Group PLC worth?
The market values Bank of Ireland Group PLC at about €18.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is €19.28; our models calculate a fair value of €12.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BIRG?
Our models span a range for Bank of Ireland Group PLC: cautious scenario €9.11, base €12.15, optimistic €16.61 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price €19.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BIRG?
Bank of Ireland Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €12.15 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 7.1. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 1.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank of Ireland Group PLC (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BIRG from its 52-week high?
Bank of Ireland Group PLC trades at €19.28, about 3% below its 52-week high of €19.97 and 37% above the low of €14.06 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank of Ireland Group PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank of Ireland Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price €19.28, calculated fair value €12.15 (−37%), Quality Score 69/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BIRG calculated?
We run Bank of Ireland Group PLC through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €12.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Bank of Ireland Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €19.28. Our model-based fair value is €12.15, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank of Ireland Group PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€16.61). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€9.11 to €16.61) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Bank of Ireland Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
The market capitalisation of Bank of Ireland Group PLC is €18.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank of Ireland Group PLC is 4.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Ireland Group PLC are €1.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
The dividend yield of Bank of Ireland Group PLC is 4.4% (payout 62.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
The net margin of Bank of Ireland Group PLC is 32.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank of Ireland Group PLC is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank of Ireland Group PLC is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
The operating margin of Bank of Ireland Group PLC is 52.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
Revenue at Bank of Ireland Group PLC is growing +13.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Ireland Group PLC are growing +35.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BIRG) hold?
Bank of Ireland Group PLC holds more cash than debt, €8.2B net (fiscal year 2021). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026