Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA stock €6.99, price €11.31, that is 38.2% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.25 – €18.21 · fair‑value band €6.47 – €7.79 · the €11.31 price screens above the €6.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, and Large Corporate and Investment Banking.
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The company offers savings and deposit accounts, cards, advanced payment systems, insurance products, pensions, mortgages, and loans, as well as financial advisory, electronic payment, self-service customer operations, and consultancy services.
It also provides asset management, financial planning, consultancy on non-financial services, and fiduciary and trust services; and credit intermediation, collaboration with trade associations, factoring offers, and third-party custody and storage services for dairy products.
In addition, the company offers corporate and structured finance, medium and long-term credit, and specialized support, as well as leasing and bancassurance. It serves private customers, corporate and large group clients, and small and medium enterprises.
The company was founded in 1472 and is headquartered in Siena, Italy.
Stock analysis
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS) currently trades at €11.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.99, 38% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €11.62 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the €11.31 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €3.10, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €6.47 (bear) to €7.79 (bull), the price of €11.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA reported revenue of €5.0B in FY2025 versus €3.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was €2.7B in FY2025, compounding +72.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €34.4B Large · P/E ratio 9.4 · P/S ratio 8.58 · EPS (TTM) €1.20 · Dividend yield 7.6% · Net margin 73.4% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −38%, BMPS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€6.47Fair Value €6.99Bull€7.79
Price €11.31 · Downside -38.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2888 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income€7.61€8.22€9.1676
Gordon GGM€2.71€3.10€3.5169
DDM Multi-Stage€2.71€3.36€4.1067
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€2.71€3.10€3.5169
DDM Multi-Stage€2.71€3.36€4.1067
Multiples
P/E Multiple€8.71€11.62€14.5263
P/B Multiple€9.42€12.55€15.6955
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€4.48€6.01€8.9754
Economic Profit
Residual Income€7.61€8.22€9.1676
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +32.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +25.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.7% vs −13.5%, picking up
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 24.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2018 (starting value 0.44 per share, median 5.25 in 2013 to 2016). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.6% a year for the price and +12.0% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Solid operating performance and diversification from the Mediobanca integration strengthen the credit profile, yet the commoditized regional model and past bailouts limit lasting competitive advantage.
Main risk: Intesa Sanpaolo could acquire the bank and integrate or divest parts of its operations, which might reduce its independent customer base and product offerings.
Bull case: The bank could leverage its Mediobanca integration and scale to strengthen its position in wealth management and corporate banking, potentially thriving within a larger group or as an independent player.
Bear case: A completed takeover by Intesa could lead to divestitures of branches and operations, eroding its regional franchise and customer relationships over time.
Monte dei Paschi has strengthened its credit profile through a recent rating upgrade that credits solid operating performance and added diversification from the Mediobanca integration. This improvement unfolds against a backdrop of competing takeover plans that could determine whether the bank stays independent or joins a larger group. Will those operational gains deliver more lasting value on its own or inside a bigger institution?
Compare Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−38.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.6% · Above median
Return on assets1.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)73.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)52.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)99.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)7.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.76× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.23× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)8.58× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow21.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA36.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.96× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)47· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)12· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BMPS
Frequently asked questions
Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.99 versus a price of €11.31, about 38% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BMPS?
Our model-based fair value for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is €6.99 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.31.
What is the quality score of BMPS?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €6.99 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.47, optimistic scenario €7.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €6.99, about 38% lower versus a price of €11.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €6.47, optimistic scenario €7.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA pay a dividend?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA currently shows a dividend yield of 7.60% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +40.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BMPS use?
Our models discount Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.93, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA that is +40.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies +40.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (+40.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.72 %: that much free cash flow Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA it is €6.99 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €11.31. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, BMPS trades above its calculated fair value: price €11.31, fair value €6.99, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BMPS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€6.99). For Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA the two are €4.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA worth?
The market values Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA at about €34.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €11.31; our models calculate a fair value of €6.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BMPS?
Our models span a range for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA: cautious scenario €6.47, base €6.99, optimistic €7.79 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €11.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BMPS?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €6.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.2, P/S 8.6, EV/EBITDA 36.5.
What is the PEG ratio of BMPS?
The PEG ratio of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is 0.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 1.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BMPS from its 52-week high?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA trades at €11.31, about 6% below its 52-week high of €12.04 and 79% above the low of €6.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €6.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €11.31, calculated fair value €6.99 (−38%), Quality Score 38/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BMPS calculated?
We run Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €6.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €11.31. Our model-based fair value is €6.99, about 38% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€7.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
The market capitalisation of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is €34.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is 8.58 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
Earnings per share at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA are €1.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
The dividend yield of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is 7.6% (payout 71.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
The net margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is 73.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
The operating margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is 52.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
Revenue at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is growing +99.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS)?
Earnings per share at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA are growing −47.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS) carry?
The net debt of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is €35.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 21.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026