BNP Paribas SA (BNP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BNP Paribas SA stock €106, price €91.94, upside +15.3%, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €30.75 – €109.16 · fair‑value band €80.57 – €127.95 · the €91.94 price screens below the €106.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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BNP Paribas SA provides various banking and financial products and services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three divisions: Corporate & Institutional Banking; Commercial, Personal Banking & Services; and Investment & Protection Services.
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The Corporate & Institutional Banking division offers capital market, securities, financing, risk management, securities clearing, custody, consulting, transaction banking, cash management, investment banking, and financial advisory services for corporate and institutional clients.
Its Commercial, Personal Banking & Services division provides financing and equipment leasing services, lending, investment, financial and non-financial services, mobility, and digital banking services, as well as current accounts, savings products, bancassurance, insurance products and services, and consumer loans.
The Investment & Protection Services division provides protection, savings, investment, and real estate services to support individuals, professionals, corporate clients, and institutions, as well as asset management, insurance, protection, pensions, and private banking services.
The company was formerly known as Banque Nationale de Paris and changed its name to BNP Paribas SA in May 2000. BNP Paribas SA was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
BNP Paribas SA (BNP) currently trades at €91.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €106.01, implying the stock looks roughly 13% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €106.01 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the €91.94 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €37.80, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €80.57 (bear) to €127.95 (bull), the price of €91.94 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
BNP Paribas SA reported revenue of €119B in FY2025 versus €108B in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was €12.2B in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €101B Large · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 1.92 · EPS (TTM) €11.43 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 26.6% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 15%, BNP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€80.57Fair Value €106.01Bull€127.95
Price €91.94 · Upside +15.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€4.78 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.8% vs 7.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 14%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: BNP Paribas draws strength from its diversified model with substantial corporate and institutional banking alongside the French retail franchise, yet remains limited by typical sector constraints and high leverage.
Main risk: Neobanks such as Revolut and online banks could draw away retail customers from traditional banks like BNP Paribas with lower-cost, branchless services, reducing deposit volumes and fee income in its core regional banking operations.
Bull case: By accelerating its own digital platforms and AI-driven services through partnerships like Google Cloud, BNP Paribas could retain and attract customers while improving efficiency to offset competitive pressures from neobanks.
Bear case: If neobanks and fintechs continue capturing significant retail market share while regulatory actions impose repeated costs, BNP Paribas might face sustained pressure on margins and slower growth in its traditional banking segments.
BNP Paribas operates a diversified model with substantial corporate and institutional banking revenue alongside its French retail franchise. Rising French government bond yields signal sovereign concerns that could lift funding costs and squeeze domestic margins. Will the international operations deliver enough growth to outweigh any sustained pressure from the home market, or does the French retail business set the tone for overall returns?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+15.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.9% · Above median
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)26.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)37.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.99× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BNP Paribas SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BNP
Frequently asked questions
Is BNP Paribas SA (BNP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €106.01 versus a price of €91.94, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BNP?
Our model-based fair value for BNP Paribas SA is €106.01 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €91.94.
What is the quality score of BNP?
BNP Paribas SA has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €106.01 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €80.57, optimistic scenario €127.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BNP Paribas SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €106.01, about +15% upside versus a price of €91.94 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €80.57, optimistic scenario €127.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
BNP Paribas SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €52.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does BNP Paribas SA pay a dividend?
BNP Paribas SA currently shows a dividend yield of 6.31% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BNP Paribas SA it is €106.01 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €91.94. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BNP Paribas SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, BNP trades below its calculated fair value: price €91.94, fair value €106.01, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BNP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€91.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€106.01). For BNP Paribas SA the two are €14.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BNP Paribas SA worth?
The market values BNP Paribas SA at about €101B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €91.94; our models calculate a fair value of €106.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BNP?
Our models span a range for BNP Paribas SA: cautious scenario €80.57, base €106.01, optimistic €127.95 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €91.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BNP?
BNP Paribas SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €106.01 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 7.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 0.8, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 1.3.
What is the PEG ratio of BNP?
The PEG ratio of BNP Paribas SA is 0.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
Balance-sheet figures for BNP Paribas SA (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 10.9%, debt of 1.99 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BNP from its 52-week high?
BNP Paribas SA trades at €91.94, about 16% below its 52-week high of €109.16 and 50% above the low of €61.41 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €106.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BNP Paribas SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BNP Paribas SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €91.94, calculated fair value €106.01 (+15%), Quality Score 68/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BNP calculated?
We run BNP Paribas SA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €106.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. BNP Paribas SA currently trades 13% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €91.94. Our model-based fair value is €106.01, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BNP Paribas SA right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of BNP Paribas SA (BNP) come from?
Earnings per share at BNP Paribas SA grew +11.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BNP Paribas SA
How large is the market capitalisation of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
The market capitalisation of BNP Paribas SA is €101B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BNP Paribas SA is 1.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
Earnings per share at BNP Paribas SA are €11.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
The dividend yield of BNP Paribas SA is 6.3% (payout 50.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
The net margin of BNP Paribas SA is 26.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BNP Paribas SA is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BNP Paribas SA is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
The operating margin of BNP Paribas SA is 37.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
Revenue at BNP Paribas SA is growing +9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BNP Paribas SA (BNP)?
Earnings per share at BNP Paribas SA are growing +8.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does BNP Paribas SA (BNP) generate?
The free cash flow of BNP Paribas SA is €43.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does BNP Paribas SA (BNP) carry?
The net debt of BNP Paribas SA is €482B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026