BPER Banca SpA (BPE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BPER Banca SpA stock €7.40, price €13.27, that is 44.2% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.01 – €14.83 · fair‑value band €5.55 – €9.25 · the €13.27 price screens above the €7.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
Follow BPER Banca SpA in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether BPER Banca SpA is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
BPER Banca SpA engages in the provision of banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally.
Show moreShow less
It offers current and saving accounts, loans, mortgages, insurance and social security, and digital banking and related services; cards; and investments and savings products and services.
The company also provides financing and leasing, collection and payment, import and export, liquidity and investment management, digital, and other services.
In addition, it offers wealth management services comprising portfolio management, consultancy, financial advice, and wealth advisory services; insurance investment products; and funds and SICAVs. The company was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Modena, Italy.
Stock analysis
BPER Banca SpA (BPE) currently trades at €13.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.40, 44% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €7.65 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €13.27 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €3.43, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €5.55 (bear) to €9.25 (bull), the price of €13.27 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
BPER Banca SpA reported revenue of €7.0B in FY2025 versus €3.7B in FY2021, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.8B in FY2025, compounding +36.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €27.3B Large · P/E ratio 11.8 · P/S ratio 3.93 · EPS (TTM) €1.12 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 31.5% · Return on equity 15.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −44%, BPE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€5.55Fair Value €7.40Bull€9.25
Price €13.27 · Downside -44.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.4841 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+26.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Per share before 2020divided by the spin-off factor 1.4774
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 22.2% / 37.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 39%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (41 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: The regional bank shows average financial metrics yet lacks clear signals of a durable moat amid intense sector competition.
Main risk: Digital neobanks such as Revolut with over five million Italian clients and low-cost app-based accounts and savings products could draw away retail customers from traditional regional banks like BPER and pressure deposit and fee margins.
Bull case: BPER could integrate advanced digital tools and its physical network into an adaptive model that retains customers seeking both convenience and personal advice while expanding bancassurance offerings.
Bear case: If neobanks continue rapid client growth with superior digital experiences and competitive rates, BPER might lose significant retail deposits and transaction volumes, squeezing core banking revenues over time.
Unipol has just received regulatory approval to exceed a 20 percent stake and gain de facto control of BPER. This opens the door to tighter bancassurance ties and potential larger-scale moves in Italian banking, but it also shifts influence over governance and priorities away from the current board. Will the push for integration and efficiency deliver more value than it limits independent capital decisions?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−44.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)31.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)65.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)54.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.20× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.65× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.93× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.5× · Pricier than median
PEG0.65× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)61· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)40· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)83· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is BPER Banca SpA (BPE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.40 versus a price of €13.27, about 44% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BPE?
Our model-based fair value for BPER Banca SpA is €7.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €13.27.
What is the quality score of BPE?
BPER Banca SpA has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €7.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.55, optimistic scenario €9.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BPER Banca SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €7.40, about 44% lower versus a price of €13.27 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.55, optimistic scenario €9.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
BPER Banca SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €7.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does BPER Banca SpA pay a dividend?
BPER Banca SpA currently shows a dividend yield of 4.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BPER Banca SpA it is €7.40 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €13.27. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BPER Banca SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, BPE trades above its calculated fair value: price €13.27, fair value €7.40, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BPE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€13.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€7.40). For BPER Banca SpA the two are €5.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BPER Banca SpA worth?
The market values BPER Banca SpA at about €27.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €13.27; our models calculate a fair value of €7.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BPE?
Our models span a range for BPER Banca SpA: cautious scenario €5.55, base €7.40, optimistic €9.25 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €13.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BPE?
BPER Banca SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €7.40 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 5.6. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.7, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 11.5.
What is the PEG ratio of BPE?
The PEG ratio of BPER Banca SpA is 0.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Balance-sheet figures for BPER Banca SpA (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 15.3%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BPE from its 52-week high?
BPER Banca SpA trades at €13.27, about 11% below its 52-week high of €14.83 and 39% above the low of €9.52 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €7.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BPER Banca SpA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BPER Banca SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €13.27, calculated fair value €7.40 (−44%), Quality Score 48/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BPE calculated?
We run BPER Banca SpA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €7.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. BPER Banca SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €13.27. Our model-based fair value is €7.40, about 44% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BPER Banca SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€9.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of BPER Banca SpA (BPE) come from?
Earnings per share at BPER Banca SpA grew +24.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.7 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate −2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +21.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BPER Banca SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The market capitalisation of BPER Banca SpA is €27.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BPER Banca SpA is 3.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Earnings per share at BPER Banca SpA are €1.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The dividend yield of BPER Banca SpA is 4.1% (payout 49.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The net margin of BPER Banca SpA is 31.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BPER Banca SpA is 15.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BPER Banca SpA is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The operating margin of BPER Banca SpA is 65.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Revenue at BPER Banca SpA is growing +54.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Earnings per share at BPER Banca SpA are growing +15.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does BPER Banca SpA (BPE) generate?
The free cash flow of BPER Banca SpA is €2.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does BPER Banca SpA (BPE) carry?
The net debt of BPER Banca SpA is €11.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch BPER Banca SpA in the live analysis
One click puts BPER Banca SpA on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 6, 2026