BPER Banca SpA (BPE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what BPER Banca SpA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch BPER Banca SpA for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.01 – €14.83 · fair‑value band €6.83 – €11.37 · the €14.47 price screens above the €9.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
BPER Banca SpA engages in the provision of banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally. It offers current and saving accounts, loans, mortgages, insurance and social security, and digital banking and related services; cards; and investments and savings products and services.
Show more
BPER Banca SpA engages in the provision of banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally. It offers current and saving accounts, loans, mortgages, insurance and social security, and digital banking and related services; cards; and investments and savings products and services. The company also provides financing and leasing, collection and payment, import and export, liquidity and investment management, digital, and other services. In addition, it offers wealth management services comprising portfolio management, consultancy, financial advice, and wealth advisory services; insurance investment products; and funds and SICAVs. The company was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Modena, Italy.
Stock analysis
BPER Banca SpA (BPE) currently trades at €14.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.10, implying the stock looks roughly 59.1% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €11.13 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the €14.47 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.33, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €6.83 (bear) to €11.37 (bull), the price of €14.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
BPER Banca SpA reported revenue of €7.0B in FY2025 versus €3.7B in FY2021, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.8B in FY2025, compounding +36.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €30.7B · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 3.41 · EPS (TTM) €1.09 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 26.1% · Return on equity 13.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −37%, BPE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €6.83Fair Value €9.10Bull €11.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2832 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+25.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21% vs 33%, slowing
Profit margin 2018 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 31%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (40 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−36% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)32% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)61% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth51% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.20× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.1× · Pricier than median
P/B2.15× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.82× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF12.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA21.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.65× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)53· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)40· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)90· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is BPER Banca SpA (BPE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €9.10 versus a price of €14.47, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BPE?
Our model-based fair value for BPER Banca SpA is €9.10 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €14.47.
What is the quality score of BPE?
BPER Banca SpA has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €9.10 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.83, optimistic scenario €11.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BPER Banca SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €9.10, about −37% upside versus a price of €14.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €6.83, optimistic scenario €11.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
BPER Banca SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €6.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does BPER Banca SpA pay a dividend?
BPER Banca SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BPER Banca SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +13.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.6 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BPE use?
Our models discount BPER Banca SpA at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.68, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BPER Banca SpA that is +13.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BPER Banca SpA (BPE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BPER Banca SpA grew +20.6 % a year. The price currently implies +13.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BPER Banca SpA (BPE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BPER Banca SpA (+13.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.89 %: that much free cash flow BPER Banca SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BPER Banca SpA it is €9.10 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of €14.47. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BPER Banca SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, BPE trades above its calculated fair value: price €14.47, fair value €9.10, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BPE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€14.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€9.10). For BPER Banca SpA the two are €5.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BPER Banca SpA worth?
The market values BPER Banca SpA at about €30.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is €14.47; our models calculate a fair value of €9.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BPE?
Our models span a range for BPER Banca SpA: cautious scenario €6.83, base €9.10, optimistic €11.37 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price €14.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BPE?
BPER Banca SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €9.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 2.2, P/S 5.8, EV/EBITDA 21.6.
What is the PEG ratio of BPE?
The PEG ratio of BPER Banca SpA is 0.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Balance-sheet figures for BPER Banca SpA (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 13.1%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BPE from its 52-week high?
BPER Banca SpA trades at €14.47, about 7% below its 52-week high of €13.51 and 112% above the low of €6.82 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €9.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BPER Banca SpA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BPER Banca SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price €14.47, calculated fair value €9.10 (−37%), Quality Score 41/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BPE calculated?
We run BPER Banca SpA through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €9.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. BPER Banca SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was €14.47. Our model-based fair value is €9.10, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BPER Banca SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€11.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of BPER Banca SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The market capitalisation of BPER Banca SpA is €30.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BPER Banca SpA is 3.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Earnings per share at BPER Banca SpA are €1.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The dividend yield of BPER Banca SpA is 4.5% (payout 59.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The net margin of BPER Banca SpA is 26.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BPER Banca SpA is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BPER Banca SpA is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
The operating margin of BPER Banca SpA is 60.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Revenue at BPER Banca SpA is growing +51.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BPER Banca SpA (BPE)?
Earnings per share at BPER Banca SpA are growing −14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BPER Banca SpA (BPE) carry?
The net debt of BPER Banca SpA is €11.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch BPER Banca SpA in the live analysis
One click puts BPER Banca SpA on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 17, 2026