Castellum AB (CAST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Castellum AB stock SEK 93.44, price SEK 135, that is 30.9% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 89.87 – kr 199.83 · fair‑value band kr 31.51 – kr 151.80 · the kr 135.25 price screens above the kr 93.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Castellum AB (publ) is one of the Nordic region's largest commercial property companies, with a focus on office and logistics properties in Nordic growth cities.
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As of 31 December 2025, the property value, including the holdings in the Norwegian company Entra ASA and Halvorsäng, totaled approximately SEK 137 Bn. The company is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm Large Cap and is classified as green under the Green Equity Designation.
Castellum is the only Nordic property company included in the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices (DJSI). Castellum AB (publ) is incorporated in Sweden.
Stock analysis
Castellum AB (CAST) currently trades at kr 135.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 93.44, 31% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 125.67 per share, and 3 of the 15 models we run sit above the kr 135.25 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 41.52, and 12 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 31.51 (bear) to kr 151.80 (bull), the price of kr 135.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Castellum AB reported revenue of 9.6B SEK in FY2025 versus 6.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was 938M SEK in FY2025, compounding −46.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 62.6B SEK (≈ $6.3B) Mid · P/E ratio 24.5 · P/S ratio 6.28 · EPS (TTM) kr 5.52 · Net margin 26.9% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 63.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at −31%, CAST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 31.51Fair Value kr 93.44Bullkr 151.80
Price kr 135.25 · Downside -30.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 4.72 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−12.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−35.7% vs −17.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.132% → 70%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−7.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.3% a year for the price and −9.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The real estate developer shows thin evidence of a durable moat with cyclical exposure and modest returns alongside low returns on equity and high leverage.
Main risk: Ongoing sector headwinds in the challenging real estate environment could limit cash generation and resilience even after the internal reorganization.
Castellum is simplifying its organization from four regions to two and targeting a fifteen percent cut in administrative costs. The change is meant to accelerate decisions and lower overhead in a challenging real estate environment. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will these internal efficiencies meaningfully improve cash generation and resilience, or will sector headwinds continue to dominate?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 489 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−30.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)26.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)63.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−24.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.68× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.92× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)6.28× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA16.2× · Pricier than median
PEG0.92× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 67
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)66· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)37· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Castellum AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CAST
Frequently asked questions
Is Castellum AB (CAST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 93.44 versus a price of kr 135.25, about 31% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CAST?
Our model-based fair value for Castellum AB is kr 93.44 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 135.25.
What is the quality score of CAST?
Castellum AB has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Castellum AB (CAST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 93.44 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 31.51, optimistic scenario kr 151.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Castellum AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 93.44, about 31% lower versus a price of kr 135.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 31.51, optimistic scenario kr 151.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Castellum AB (CAST)?
Castellum AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.0B SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Castellum AB (CAST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Castellum AB would have to grow free cash flow by +20.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CAST use?
Our models discount Castellum AB at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.44, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Castellum AB that is +20.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Castellum AB (CAST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Castellum AB grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +20.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Castellum AB (CAST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Castellum AB (+20.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Castellum AB (CAST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.36 %: that much free cash flow Castellum AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Castellum AB (CAST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Castellum AB it is kr 93.44 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of kr 135.25. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Castellum AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CAST trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 135.25, fair value kr 93.44, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CAST?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 135.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 93.44). For Castellum AB the two are kr 41.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Castellum AB worth?
The market values Castellum AB at about 62.6B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is kr 135.25; our models calculate a fair value of kr 93.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CAST?
Our models span a range for Castellum AB: cautious scenario kr 31.51, base kr 93.44, optimistic kr 151.80 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price kr 135.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CAST?
Castellum AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 93.44 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 12.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.9, P/S 6.3, EV/EBITDA 16.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CAST?
The PEG ratio of Castellum AB is 0.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Castellum AB (CAST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Castellum AB (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 3.5%, debt of 0.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CAST from its 52-week high?
Castellum AB trades at kr 135.25, about 1% below its 52-week high of kr 136.75 and 32% above the low of kr 102.14 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 93.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Castellum AB?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Castellum AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price kr 135.25, calculated fair value kr 93.44 (−31%), Quality Score 63/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CAST calculated?
We run Castellum AB through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 93.44 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Castellum AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Castellum AB (CAST)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 135.25. Our model-based fair value is kr 93.44, about 31% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Castellum AB right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 31.51 to kr 151.80). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Castellum AB (CAST) come from?
Earnings per share at Castellum AB grew −12.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.7 %, EBIT margin −5.6 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Castellum AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Castellum AB (CAST)?
The market capitalisation of Castellum AB is 62.6B SEK (≈ $6.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Castellum AB (CAST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Castellum AB is 6.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Castellum AB (CAST)?
Earnings per share at Castellum AB are kr 5.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Castellum AB (CAST)?
The net margin of Castellum AB is 26.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Castellum AB (CAST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Castellum AB is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Castellum AB (CAST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Castellum AB is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Castellum AB (CAST)?
The operating margin of Castellum AB is 63.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Castellum AB (CAST)?
Revenue at Castellum AB is growing −24.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Castellum AB (CAST)?
Earnings per share at Castellum AB are growing +257% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Castellum AB (CAST) carry?
The net debt of Castellum AB is 68.2B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026