China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · CN · Market cap 59.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +8.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥1.65 to ¥5.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.39 – ¥15.86 · fair‑value band ¥1.65 – ¥5.70 · the ¥6.99 price screens above the ¥5.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) currently trades at ¥6.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.70, implying the stock looks roughly 18.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings generated revenue of 158B CNY at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 15.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.2%. Net debt stands at 103B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.65 (bear case) to ¥5.70 (bull case); at ¥6.99, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -18%, 001979 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥21.46) versus Earnings-Based (¥3.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells residential properties in China. It operates in three segments: Development Business, Asset Operation, and Property Services.
Full company description
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells residential properties in China. It operates in three segments: Development Business, Asset Operation, and Property Services. The company is involved in residential real estate development and construction; real estate investment; construction management; property management; elderly care; operation and management of commercial offices, apartments, hotels, industrial parks, and other properties; and exhibition and cruise ship operation. It also engages in investment and business management consulting; development and management of automotive parks; capital market, agency, and business services; and property leasing activities. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of China Merchants Group Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings reported revenue of ¥154B in FY2025 versus ¥161B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.0B in FY2025, compounding −43.9%/yr from FY2021.
001979 screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Vinhomes Joint Stock Company →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 592 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM | 147,000 VND | 147,415 VND | +0% |
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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