China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.39 – ¥15.86 · fair‑value band ¥1.29 – ¥8.88 · the ¥7.07 price screens above the ¥3.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells residential properties in China. It operates in three segments: Development Business, Asset Operation, and Property Services.
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China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells residential properties in China. It operates in three segments: Development Business, Asset Operation, and Property Services. The company is involved in residential real estate development and construction; real estate investment; construction management; property management; elderly care; operation and management of commercial offices, apartments, hotels, industrial parks, and other properties; and exhibition and cruise ship operation. It also engages in investment and business management consulting; development and management of automotive parks; capital market, agency, and business services; and property leasing activities. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of China Merchants Group Limited.
Stock analysis
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) currently trades at ¥7.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.60, implying the stock looks roughly 96.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥7.26 per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥7.07 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ¥1.22, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥1.29 (bear) to ¥8.88 (bull), the price of ¥7.07 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings reported revenue of 154B CNY in FY2025 versus 161B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding −43.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 90.5B CNY (≈ $13.5B) · P/E ratio 176.8 · P/S ratio 1.17 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0400 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −49%, 001979 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.29Fair Value ¥3.60Bull ¥8.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−44.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−45.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−45% vs −21%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 4%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 572 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−48% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.89× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)176.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.61× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.38× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF1.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.3× · Pricier than median
PEG0.49× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)79· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)1· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)6· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)14· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/001979
Frequently asked questions
Is China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.60 versus a price of ¥7.07, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 001979?
Our model-based fair value for China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is ¥3.60 (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.07.
What is the quality score of 001979?
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.60 (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.29, optimistic scenario ¥8.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.60, about −49% upside versus a price of ¥7.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.29, optimistic scenario ¥8.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 158B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
Does China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings pay a dividend?
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.5 % per year. As of Sep 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 001979 use?
Our models discount China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings that is +14.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings grew +3.5 % a year. The price currently implies +14.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (+14.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.22 %: that much free cash flow China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings it is ¥3.60 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of ¥7.07. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, 001979 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥7.07, fair value ¥3.60, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 001979?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥7.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.60). For China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings the two are ¥3.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings worth?
The market values China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings at about 90.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is ¥7.07; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 001979?
Our models span a range for China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings: cautious scenario ¥1.29, base ¥3.60, optimistic ¥8.88 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price ¥7.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 001979?
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 176.8 (as of Sep 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 001979?
The PEG ratio of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is 0.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 19, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity 0.2%, debt of 1.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 001979 from its 52-week high?
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings trades at ¥7.07, about 36% below its 52-week high of ¥11.10 (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price ¥7.07, calculated fair value ¥3.60 (−49%), Quality Score 33/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 001979 calculated?
We run China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ¥7.07. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.60, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings right now?
Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (¥1.29 to ¥8.88). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) come from?
Earnings per share at China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings grew −10.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin −14.0 %, tax rate −4.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
The market capitalisation of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is 90.5B CNY (≈ $13.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is 1.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
Earnings per share at China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings are ¥0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 176.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
The dividend yield of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is 0.7% (payout 128%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
The net margin of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
The operating margin of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
Revenue at China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is growing +15.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
Earnings per share at China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings are growing −90.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) carry?
The net debt of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is 103B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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