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China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · CN · Market cap 59.7B CNY

CM China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 · SHE
Price¥6.99
Fair Value¥5.70
Upside-18.4%
Quality32/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 0.4% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
0.80% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/15)
Narrow moat 23/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥1.65 – ¥5.70 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Share price +8.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 18% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The model range is unusually wide (¥1.65 to ¥5.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥15.86 ¥6.39 Fair Value ¥5.70 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥6.39 – ¥15.86 · fair‑value band ¥1.65 – ¥5.70 · the ¥6.99 price screens above the ¥5.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) currently trades at ¥6.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.70, implying the stock looks roughly 18.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings generated revenue of 158B CNY at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 15.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.2%. Net debt stands at 103B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥1.65 (bear case) to ¥5.70 (bull case); at ¥6.99, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -18%, 001979 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥11.94 ¥41.09 80
Residual Income ¥22.05 ¥20.81 ¥15.28 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.61 ¥21.16 74
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥12.83 ¥43.87 38
5Y Revenue Exit ¥3.75 ¥22.55 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥20.34 ¥47.89 41
10Y Revenue Exit ¥4.02 ¥24.03 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥15.93 ¥44.52 37
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.28 ¥9.28 ¥12.65 54
Lynch FV ¥2.34 ¥3.31 ¥4.32 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥2.34 ¥3.31 ¥4.32 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥5.26 ¥10.97 ¥17.38 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.26 ¥9.22 ¥11.50 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥5.03 ¥6.71 ¥8.39 63
P/S Multiple ¥4.29 ¥5.71 ¥7.12 58
P/B Multiple ¥4.29 ¥5.71 ¥7.12 55
EV/EBIT ¥7.18 ¥17.06 53
EV/EBITDA ¥2.81 ¥14.48 ¥26.16 54
EV/Revenue ¥4.79 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥16.02 ¥21.46 ¥32.01 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥11.94 ¥41.09 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.61 ¥21.16 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥22.05 ¥20.81 ¥15.28 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥3.93 ¥5.62 ¥7.30 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥21.46) versus Earnings-Based (¥3.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 158B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +15.7%
Net margin 0.4%
Return on equity 0.2%
Free cash flow 6.5B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 165.5
More key figures
Operating margin 3.9%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.0400
Dividend yield 0.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -90.0%
Net debt 103B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells residential properties in China. It operates in three segments: Development Business, Asset Operation, and Property Services.

Full company description

China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells residential properties in China. It operates in three segments: Development Business, Asset Operation, and Property Services. The company is involved in residential real estate development and construction; real estate investment; construction management; property management; elderly care; operation and management of commercial offices, apartments, hotels, industrial parks, and other properties; and exhibition and cruise ship operation. It also engages in investment and business management consulting; development and management of automotive parks; capital market, agency, and business services; and property leasing activities. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of China Merchants Group Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings reported revenue of ¥154B in FY2025 versus ¥161B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.0B in FY2025, compounding −43.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
154B CNY
Latest YoY
−13.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−5.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+3.5%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
+14.1%
Revenue −1.0%/yr
FY21 ¥161B
FY22 ¥183B
FY23 ¥175B
FY24 ¥179B
FY25 ¥154B
Net income −43.9%/yr
FY21 ¥10.4B
FY22 ¥4.3B
FY23 ¥6.3B
FY24 ¥4.0B
FY25 ¥1.0B

001979 screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Vinhomes Joint Stock Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/001979

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 592 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −18% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 0% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth 16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.89× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 165.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.61× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.38× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.49× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 9 · sector 48
FUTURE 79 · sector 0
PAST 1 · sector 9
HEALTH 6 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 16 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM 147,000 VND 147,415 VND +0%
DLF Limited DLF ₹657.75 ₹159.49 -76%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,188 ₹583.43 -51%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 6,125 IDR 1,330 IDR -78%
Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY ₹1,925 ₹1,183 -39%
Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP ₹2,102 ₹1,044 -50%
PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT 1,080 IDR 1,674 IDR +55%
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL 64.00 IDR 84.16 IDR +32%
PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.70 versus a price of ¥6.99, about −18% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 001979?
Our model-based fair value for China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is ¥5.70 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥6.99.
What is the quality score of 001979?
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings has a Quality Score of 32/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979)?
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 158B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 001979?
The net profit margin of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is about 0.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings pay a dividend?
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.59% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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