HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $1.52 · Strongly overvalued (−82%)
✓Quality 66/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −7.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 173.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.22% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers(7/15)
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Watch HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.56 – $8.62 · fair‑value band $1.52 – $2.32 · the $8.38 price screens above the $1.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Hongkong Land Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, development, and management of properties in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, Southeast Asia, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Prime Properties Investment and Build-to-Sell.
Show more
Hongkong Land Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, development, and management of properties in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, Southeast Asia, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Prime Properties Investment and Build-to-Sell. The company owns and manages mixed-use real estate, including offices, luxury retail, residential, and hospitality products in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shanghai. It is also involved in hotel investment, finance, and project management businesses. The company was founded in 1889 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda. Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Jardine Strategic Limited.
Stock analysis
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) currently trades at $8.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.52, implying the stock looks roughly 451.3% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $10.77 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the $8.38 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.5900, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.52 (bear) to $2.32 (bull), the price of $8.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound −11.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $18.1B · P/E ratio 14.4 · P/S ratio 12.6 · EPS (TTM) $0.5800 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 87.2% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −82%, H78 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.3500 to $10.77). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $1.52Fair Value $1.52Bull $2.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5562 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−27.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.1%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+50.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+47.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−119% → 21%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.8%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−82% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)173% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)48% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−16% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.4× · Pricier than median
P/B0.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)13.56× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF42.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA64.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.41× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)64· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/H78
Frequently asked questions
Is HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.52 versus a price of $8.38, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of H78?
Our model-based fair value for HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is $1.52 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.38.
What is the quality score of H78?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.52 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.52, optimistic scenario $2.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.52, about −82% upside versus a price of $8.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.52, optimistic scenario $2.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED pay a dividend?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED would have to grow free cash flow by +22.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of H78 use?
Our models discount HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED that is +22.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED grew -7.1 % a year. The price currently implies +22.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (+22.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.30 %: that much free cash flow HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED it is $1.52 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $8.38. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, H78 trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.38, fair value $1.52, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of H78?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.52). For HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED the two are $6.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED worth?
The market values HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED at about $18.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $8.38; our models calculate a fair value of $1.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about H78?
Our models span a range for HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED: cautious scenario $1.52, base $1.52, optimistic $2.32 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $8.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of H78?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 0.6, P/S 13.6, EV/EBITDA 64.3.
What is the PEG ratio of H78?
The PEG ratio of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 2.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Balance-sheet figures for HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is H78 from its 52-week high?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED trades at $8.38, about 6% below its 52-week high of $8.92 and 50% above the low of $5.60 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $8.38, calculated fair value $1.52 (−82%), Quality Score 66/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of H78 calculated?
We run HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED
How large is the market capitalisation of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The market capitalisation of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is $18.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 12.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Earnings per share at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED are $0.5800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The dividend yield of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 3.2% (payout 46.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The net margin of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 87.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The operating margin of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Revenue at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is growing −32.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Earnings per share at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED are growing −63.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) carry?
The net debt of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is $3.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED in the live analysis
One click puts HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 13, 2026