China Gold International Resources (CGG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Gold International Resources stock C$14.94, price C$32.55, that is 54.1% below the price, quality 88 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$2.60 – C$48.40 · fair‑value band C$8.21 – C$19.42 · the C$32.55 price screens above the C$14.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd., a gold and base metal mining company, acquires, explores, develops, and mines mineral resources in the People's Republic of China and Canada.
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It holds 96.5% interest in the Chang Shan Hao gold mine (CSH mine) located in Inner Mongolia, China; and holds 100% interest in the Jiama copper-gold polymetallic mine that hosts copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, lead, and zinc metals located in Tibet, China.
The company also engages in logistics and transport-related businesses, and investment holding activity, as well as operates an issuer of bonds. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
China Gold International Resources (CGG) currently trades at C$32.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$14.94, 54% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$44.26 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$32.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$5.51, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$8.21 (bear) to C$19.42 (bull), the price of C$32.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 88/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Gold International Resources reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $467M in FY2025, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$12.9B (≈ $9.1B) Mid · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 4.05 · EPS (TTM) C$2.82 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 35.6% · Return on equity 33.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 87 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −54%, CGG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$8.21Fair Value C$14.94BullC$19.42
Price C$32.55 · Downside -54.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$1.86 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFC$29.18C$43.84C$83.0777
Growth DCFC$27.61C$46.36C$78.4676
EPVC$13.94C$15.70C$17.1674
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFC$29.18C$43.84C$83.0777
Owner EarningsC$26.53C$53.55C$102.5772
5Y Revenue ExitC$13.44C$19.35C$30.2172
5Y EBITDA ExitC$22.81C$39.44C$69.7372
5Y P/E ExitC$23.60C$45.36C$73.0269
10Y Revenue ExitC$18.59C$28.59C$37.0667
10Y EBITDA ExitC$24.69C$44.67C$79.7565
10Y P/E ExitC$25.18C$46.03C$80.8561
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddC$11.32C$78.92C$110.7563
Lynch FVC$24.17C$34.53C$44.8961
PEG = 1.0C$24.17C$34.53C$44.8957
EPVC$13.94C$15.70C$17.1674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMC$0.8500C$1.48C$2.0068
DDM Multi-StageC$0.8500C$1.37C$1.5967
Multiples
P/E MultipleC$21.22C$28.29C$35.3663
P/S MultipleC$5.25C$7.00C$8.7558
P/B MultipleC$3.33C$4.44C$5.5655
EV/EBITC$21.23C$28.49C$35.7466
EV/EBITDAC$19.45C$26.11C$32.7767
EV/RevenueC$4.37C$6.48C$8.5853
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)C$4.11C$5.51C$8.2354
Growth DCF
Growth DCFC$27.61C$46.36C$78.4676
Rev-Margin DCFC$13.44C$21.06C$31.8772
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeC$9.11C$12.96C$23.3272
ROIC CompounderC$16.46C$22.15C$29.2272
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EC$30.06C$42.95C$55.8367
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+73.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+23.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.7% vs 27.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 44%
2025 sits 227% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.6% a year for the price and +13.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Despite solid reported margins and returns, the business faces limited durable advantage from thin public signals and commodity exposure in a cyclical industry.
Main risk: Sales to controlling shareholder China National Gold accounted for 99.5 percent of revenue in 2025, so any change in that relationship could reduce volumes or pressure margins at the CSH and Jiama mines.
Bull case: Successful navigation of Chinese regulatory processes and continued strong ties with CNG could allow the company to complete the Jiama super-pit expansion and CSH underground transition, sustaining or increasing metal output.
Bear case: Delays or restrictions from Tibetan or national regulators combined with any shift in offtake by CNG could constrain mine expansions and reduce production volumes at both key assets.
China Gold International is advancing the transition at its CSH mine from open-pit operations to underground block caving after approvals for slope remediation and the expected resumption of mining. It is also moving forward with a major expansion at Jiama targeting much higher processing capacity via a super pit approach. Will successful execution of these shifts deliver sustained output growth or expose the business to greater operational and regulatory complexities?
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score88 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−54.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)33.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)47.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)65.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)50.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Gold International Resources Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CGG
Frequently asked questions
Is China Gold International Resources (CGG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$14.94 versus a price of C$32.55, about 54% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CGG?
Our model-based fair value for China Gold International Resources is C$14.94 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$32.55.
What is the quality score of CGG?
China Gold International Resources has a Quality Score of 88/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$14.94 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$8.21, optimistic scenario C$19.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Gold International Resources stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$14.94, about 54% lower versus a price of C$32.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$8.21, optimistic scenario C$19.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
China Gold International Resources reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does China Gold International Resources pay a dividend?
China Gold International Resources currently shows a dividend yield of 1.97% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of China Gold International Resources (CGG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
China Gold International Resources pays a dividend of C$0.642 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 23, 2026. The payout ratio is 6.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 20.15 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Gold International Resources would have to grow free cash flow by +7.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CGG use?
Our models discount China Gold International Resources at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.84, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Gold International Resources that is +7.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Gold International Resources (CGG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Gold International Resources grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Gold International Resources (CGG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Gold International Resources (+7.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.00 %: that much free cash flow China Gold International Resources produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Gold International Resources it is C$14.94 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of C$32.55. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is China Gold International Resources stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CGG trades above its calculated fair value: price C$32.55, fair value C$14.94, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$32.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$14.94). For China Gold International Resources the two are C$17.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Gold International Resources worth?
The market values China Gold International Resources at about C$12.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is C$32.55; our models calculate a fair value of C$14.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGG?
Our models span a range for China Gold International Resources: cautious scenario C$8.21, base C$14.94, optimistic C$19.42 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price C$32.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CGG?
China Gold International Resources trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$14.94 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.4. Other multiples: P/B 4.0, P/S 5.6, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Gold International Resources (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 33.7%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 88/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CGG from its 52-week high?
China Gold International Resources trades at C$32.55, about 33% below its 52-week high of C$48.40 and 52% above the low of C$21.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$14.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Gold International Resources?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Gold International Resources stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price C$32.55, calculated fair value C$14.94 (−54%), Quality Score 88/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGG calculated?
We run China Gold International Resources through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$14.94 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. China Gold International Resources itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$32.55. Our model-based fair value is C$14.94, about 54% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Gold International Resources right now?
A high-quality business (quality 88/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$19.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (C$8.21 to C$19.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of China Gold International Resources
How large is the market capitalisation of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
The market capitalisation of China Gold International Resources is C$12.9B (≈ $9.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Gold International Resources is 4.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
Earnings per share at China Gold International Resources are C$2.82 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
The dividend yield of China Gold International Resources is 2.0% (payout 22.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
The net margin of China Gold International Resources is 35.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Gold International Resources is 33.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Gold International Resources is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
The operating margin of China Gold International Resources is 65.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
Revenue at China Gold International Resources is growing +50.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Gold International Resources (CGG)?
Earnings per share at China Gold International Resources are growing +137% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Gold International Resources (CGG) carry?
The net debt of China Gold International Resources is $148M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026