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CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CMS Energy Corporation stock $33.00, price $70.98, that is 53.5% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Utilities US

CE CMS Energy Corporation logo Some data Oct 31, 2026

CMS Energy Corporation

CMS · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 54% below what the stock costs today.

Positive coverage
Quality 44/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.9 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 9.7% net margin (TTM)
3.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Moderate moat 54/100 · thin data
Insiders bought $14,492 (6M) · sold $222,930
Some data
Profit last quarter 58% below a year ago.
Fair value $33.00 · Strongly overvalued (−53.5%)
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/14)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Michigan regulators could limit rate recoveries🚩Large capital plan could force costly financing
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$78.69 $45.98 Fair Value $33.00 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $45.98 – $78.69 · fair‑value band $27.72 – $46.70 · the $70.98 price screens above the $33.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 31, 2026.

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Company profile

CMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity.

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This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources.

Its distribution system comprises 263 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,619 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 82,854 miles of electric distribution overhead lines; 10,027 miles of underground distribution lines; and 1,102 substations.

The Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas, which includes 2,337 miles of transmission lines; 14 gas storage fields; 28,433 miles of distribution mains; and 8 compressor stations.

The NorthStar Clean Energy segment is involved in the independent power production and marketing, including the development and operation of renewable generation.

The company serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers, including residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Jackson, Michigan.

Stock analysis

CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) currently trades at $70.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.00, 54% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $48.65 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $70.98 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.67, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $27.72 (bear) to $46.70 (bull), the price of $70.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

CMS Energy Corporation reported revenue of $8.5B in FY2025 versus $7.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $21.3B Large · P/E ratio 25.4 · P/S ratio 2.38 · EPS (TTM) $2.80 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −54%, CMS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $27.72 Fair Value $33.00 Bull $46.70
Price $70.98 · Downside -53.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4646 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $27.72 $32.61 $43.26 76
EPV n/a $0.1700 >$0.6800 68
Gordon GGM $21.19 $33.00 $46.70 68
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $23.22 $48.28 $61.03 66
EPV n/a $0.1700 >$0.6800 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $21.19 $33.00 $46.70 68
DDM Multi-Stage $21.19 $31.26 $43.82 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $46.10 $61.47 $76.84 63
P/S Multiple $43.54 $58.05 $72.57 58
P/B Multiple $29.55 $39.41 $49.26 55
EV/EBIT $3.52 $24.17 $44.82 58
EV/EBITDA $14.10 $38.28 $62.46 62
EV/Revenue n/a $9.64 $30.06 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.95 $14.67 $21.89 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $27.72 $32.61 $43.26 76
ROIC Compounder n/a $0.1700 >$0.6800 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $34.05 $48.65 $63.24 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 33
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 47
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 9
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 37
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 97
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 36
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 43
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 77
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $14,492, on Jul 31, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $222,930.

  • BuySrikanth MaddipatiEVP/CFO200 shares at $72.46$14,492Jul 31, 2026
  • SaleBrandon J. HofmeisterSenior Vice President2× since Feb 27, 2026: 7,000 shares, avg. $76.56$535,890May 26, 2026
  • SaleScott B McIntoshVP, Controller, CAO1,750 shares at $78.21$136,868Mar 2, 2026
  • BuyDiane LeopoldDirector2,000 shares at $76.70$153,400Feb 25, 2026
  • SaleJohn G RussellDirector14,914 shares at $75.76$1.1MFeb 20, 2026

Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 33/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.2% vs 6.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

CMS screens overvalued: fair value 54% below the price. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: CMS Energy's strength lies in concentrating earnings in regulated rate-base assets with predictable returns, while limited innovation and high leverage remain the main weaknesses.
Main risk: Unfavorable decisions by the Michigan Public Service Commission on rate cases or allowed returns on equity could constrain earnings growth from the company's regulated Michigan utility investments.
Bull case: Favorable regulatory outcomes and successful conversion of data center prospects could expand the rate base steadily while the focus on regulated assets improves earnings predictability.
Bear case: Restrictive rate decisions or delays in cost recovery combined with financing pressures could slow investment, limit load growth capture and pressure margins in the core Michigan operations.
CMS Energy is exiting non-utility renewable development to redirect capital toward its regulated Michigan utilities. The move simplifies operations and should concentrate future earnings in rate-base assets with predictable returns, yet it also reduces exposure to potentially faster-growing projects outside traditional regulation. Will the resulting steadier earnings profile strengthen long-term value more than the narrower business focus limits it?
Join the discussion →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside −53.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 5.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 9.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 28.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.07× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 25.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.33× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 2.38× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.51× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)40 · sector 22
PAST (return on equity)21 · sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)63 · sector 63

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
PG&E Corporation PCG $13.40 $17.29 +29% vs CMS
Exelon Corporation EXC $46.24 $36.01 −22% vs CMS
American Electric Power Company AEP $129.24 $100.03 −23% vs CMS
Xcel Energy Inc XEL $80.50 $53.45 −34% vs CMS
The Southern Company SO $93.12 $57.57 −38% vs CMS
Duke Energy Corporation DUK $129.59 $75.79 −42% vs CMS
Dominion Energy, Inc D $69.75 $37.88 −46% vs CMS
Consolidated Edison, Inc ED $120.30 $47.76 −60% vs CMS
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE $88.45 $29.83 −66% vs CMS
Entergy Corporation ETR $111.90 $37.37 −67% vs CMS

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CMS Energy Corporation: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CMS Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMS

Frequently asked questions

Is CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.00 versus a price of $70.98, about 54% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CMS?
Our model-based fair value for CMS Energy Corporation is $33.00 (as of Oct 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $70.98.
What is the quality score of CMS?
CMS Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.00 (as of Oct 31, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $27.72, optimistic scenario $46.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CMS Energy Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.00, about 54% lower versus a price of $70.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $27.72, optimistic scenario $46.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
CMS Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 31, 2026).
Does CMS Energy Corporation pay a dividend?
CMS Energy Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 3.17% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 31, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CMS Energy Corporation it is $33.00 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026), against a price of $70.98. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CMS Energy Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 31, 2026, CMS trades above its calculated fair value: price $70.98, fair value $33.00, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($70.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.00). For CMS Energy Corporation the two are $37.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CMS Energy Corporation worth?
The market values CMS Energy Corporation at about $21.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 31, 2026). Per share that is $70.98; our models calculate a fair value of $33.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMS?
Our models span a range for CMS Energy Corporation: cautious scenario $27.72, base $33.00, optimistic $46.70 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026, price $70.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMS?
CMS Energy Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.4 (as of Oct 31, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.00 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 22.0. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 2.3, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 12.7.
What is the PEG ratio of CMS?
The PEG ratio of CMS Energy Corporation is 2.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 31, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
Balance-sheet figures for CMS Energy Corporation (as of Oct 31, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 2.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMS from its 52-week high?
CMS Energy Corporation trades at $70.98, about 10% below its 52-week high of $78.69 and 13% above the low of $62.60 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CMS Energy Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CMS Energy Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 31, 2026: price $70.98, calculated fair value $33.00 (−54%), Quality Score 44/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMS calculated?
We run CMS Energy Corporation through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $33.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. CMS Energy Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $70.98. Our model-based fair value is $33.00, about 54% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CMS Energy Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($46.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) come from?
Earnings per share at CMS Energy Corporation grew +6.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin +0.6 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of CMS Energy Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
The market capitalisation of CMS Energy Corporation is $21.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CMS Energy Corporation is 2.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
Earnings per share at CMS Energy Corporation are $2.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
The dividend yield of CMS Energy Corporation is 3.2% (payout 80.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
The net margin of CMS Energy Corporation is 9.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CMS Energy Corporation is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CMS Energy Corporation is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
The operating margin of CMS Energy Corporation is 28.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
Revenue at CMS Energy Corporation is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)?
Earnings per share at CMS Energy Corporation are growing −57.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) generate?
The free cash flow of CMS Energy Corporation is −$1.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) carry?
The net debt of CMS Energy Corporation is $18.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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