ConocoPhillips (COP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ConocoPhillips stock $91.42, price $135, that is 32.5% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.18 – $154.03 · fair‑value band $68.56 – $114.27 · the $135.46 price screens above the $91.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific.
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The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects.
It serves in the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and internationally. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
ConocoPhillips (COP) currently trades at $135.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $91.42, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $145.31 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the $135.46 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $34.03, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $68.56 (bear) to $114.27 (bull), the price of $135.46 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ConocoPhillips reported revenue of $58.7B in FY2025 versus $46.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was $8.0B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $164B Large · P/E ratio 18.1 · P/S ratio 2.55 · EPS (TTM) $7.47 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 14.4% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −33%, COP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$68.56Fair Value $91.42Bull$114.27
Price $135.46 · Downside -32.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.54 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.5M and none bought.
SaleAndrew D LundquistSenior Vice President2× since Mar 13, 2026: 43,987 shares, avg. $123.02$5.4MAug 21, 2026
SaleKelly Brunetti RoseSVP & General Counsel3× since Mar 9, 2026: 31,200 shares, avg. $128.92$4.0MAug 20, 2026
SaleSharmila MulliganDirector1,974 shares at $119.00$234,906Jun 10, 2026
SaleRyan Michael LanceChairman and CEO, Director3× since Dec 19, 2025: 1,120,729 shares, avg. $112.28$125.8MMar 31, 2026
SaleNicholas G OldsExecutive Vice President3× since Mar 11, 2026: 33,666 shares, avg. $119.88$4.0MMar 23, 2026
SaleHeather G. HrapSenior Vice President2,654 shares at $119.68$317,631Mar 13, 2026
SaleWelsh Kontessa S HaynesVP & Controller10,339 shares at $120.07$1.2MMar 12, 2026
SaleTimothy A LeachDirector40,000 shares at $118.79$4.8MMar 6, 2026
BuyWilliam H. McRavenDirector5,768 shares at $86.68$500,001Nov 10, 2025
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+3.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.4% vs 1.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−10% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.9% a year for the price and −1.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Modest scale efficiencies and secured LNG offtakes provide some advantages in this commoditized E&P business, yet cyclical commodity exposure limits durable strengths.
Main risk: Ongoing climate deception lawsuits from states and cities plus potential carbon pricing or emissions rules could impose damages, higher compliance costs or limits on new projects and production.
Bull case: By maintaining cost discipline and selectively partnering or divesting mature assets the company could focus capital on its lowest-cost opportunities and sustain production even amid regulatory pressures.
Bear case: If climate litigation results in substantial payouts or stricter emissions rules combined with rivals locking up prime acreage the company might face constrained growth options and sustained margin pressure on its core output.
ConocoPhillips has secured LNG offtake agreements totaling 12 million tonnes per year that start contributing from 2027. It is simultaneously reducing its Canadian workforce to streamline operations after the Marathon acquisition. Will the cash flows from these longer-term LNG and Alaska developments outweigh the constraints of modest near-term production growth?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 236 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−32.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.2% · Above median
Return on assets6.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)14.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)31.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.1× · Pricier than median
P/B2.55× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.55× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA6.7× · Pricier than median
PEG1.01× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)57· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)49· sector 77
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ConocoPhillips Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COP
Frequently asked questions
Is ConocoPhillips (COP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $91.42 versus a price of $135.46, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COP?
Our model-based fair value for ConocoPhillips is $91.42 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $135.46.
What is the quality score of COP?
ConocoPhillips has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $91.42 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $68.56, optimistic scenario $114.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ConocoPhillips stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $91.42, about 33% lower versus a price of $135.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $68.56, optimistic scenario $114.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
ConocoPhillips reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $64.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does ConocoPhillips pay a dividend?
ConocoPhillips currently shows a dividend yield of 2.44% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into ConocoPhillips (COP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ConocoPhillips would have to grow free cash flow by -5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COP use?
Our models discount ConocoPhillips at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ConocoPhillips that is -5.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ConocoPhillips (COP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ConocoPhillips grew +25.6 % a year. The price currently implies -5.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ConocoPhillips (COP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ConocoPhillips (-5.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.20 %: that much free cash flow ConocoPhillips produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ConocoPhillips it is $91.42 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $135.46. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ConocoPhillips stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, COP trades above its calculated fair value: price $135.46, fair value $91.42, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($135.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($91.42). For ConocoPhillips the two are $44.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ConocoPhillips worth?
The market values ConocoPhillips at about $164B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $135.46; our models calculate a fair value of $91.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COP?
Our models span a range for ConocoPhillips: cautious scenario $68.56, base $91.42, optimistic $114.27 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $135.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COP?
ConocoPhillips trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $91.42 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 22.0 (reported for FY2025: 20.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 12.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 2.6, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
What is the PEG ratio of COP?
The PEG ratio of ConocoPhillips is 1.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Balance-sheet figures for ConocoPhillips (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 14.2%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COP from its 52-week high?
ConocoPhillips trades at $135.46, about 12% below its 52-week high of $154.03 and 63% above the low of $83.04 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $91.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ConocoPhillips?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ConocoPhillips stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $135.46, calculated fair value $91.42 (−33%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COP calculated?
We run ConocoPhillips through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $91.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. ConocoPhillips itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $135.46. Our model-based fair value is $91.42, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ConocoPhillips right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($114.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of ConocoPhillips
How large is the market capitalisation of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The market capitalisation of ConocoPhillips is $164B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ConocoPhillips is 2.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Earnings per share at ConocoPhillips are $7.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The dividend yield of ConocoPhillips is 2.4% (payout 46.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 44.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The net margin of ConocoPhillips is 14.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ConocoPhillips is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ConocoPhillips is 15.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The operating margin of ConocoPhillips is 31.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Revenue at ConocoPhillips is growing +35.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Earnings per share at ConocoPhillips are growing +107% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ConocoPhillips (COP) carry?
The net debt of ConocoPhillips is $16.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026