Vinci S.A. (DG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vinci S.A. stock €187, price €113, upside +65.3%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €67.68 – €136.83 · fair‑value band €135.54 – €238.44 · the €112.95 price screens below the €186.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Vinci SA, together with its subsidiaries, engages in concessions, energy, and construction businesses in France and internationally. It operates through Concessions, Energy Solutions, and Construction segments.
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The company's Concessions segment operates motorways, autoroutes, airports, highways, railways, and stadiums.
Its Energy segment provides services to the manufacturing sector, infrastructure, building solutions and facilities management, and information and communication technology; and industrial and energy-related services, which includes development of renewable energy assets, as well as engineering, procurement, construction projects in the energy sector, and development of renewable energy production facilities of solar, and wind farms.
The company's Construction segment engages in designing and undertaking projects, which includes general contractor; geotechnical, and structural engineering and related digital activities, as well as provision of services in nuclear engineering; undertaking building, civil engineering, roadworks, rail works, and water works; development of properties, including residential and commercial properties; and management of residences and property services.
Vinci SA was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Nanterre, France.
Stock analysis
Vinci S.A. (DG) currently trades at €112.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €186.68, implying the stock looks roughly 39% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €221.51 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the €112.95 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €60.45, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €135.54 (bear) to €238.44 (bull), the price of €112.95 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vinci S.A. reported revenue of €75.4B in FY2025 versus €50.2B in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was €4.9B in FY2025, compounding +17.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €63.4B Large · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) €9.02 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 16.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at 65%, DG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€135.54Fair Value €186.68Bull€238.44
Price €112.95 · Upside +65.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.37 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.9% vs 6.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.4% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Vinci shows strength through major contract wins in energy infrastructure and data centers but its core weakness remains heavy reliance on high-margin motorway and airport concessions.
Main risk: A possible increase in France’s tax on long-distance transport infrastructure operators could raise costs and squeeze margins on Vinci’s motorway concessions.
Bull case: Vinci could leverage its AI systems for faster design and maintenance to win more contracts and offset any tax or competitive pressure through higher efficiency.
Bear case: If the French tax rises sharply or Chinese rivals capture key projects, Vinci’s concession cash flows and construction margins could decline, limiting reinvestment and growth.
Vinci keeps landing large contracts in energy infrastructure and data centers while confirming its 2026 outlook. At the same time the French government’s proposed higher levy on long-distance transport concessions puts pressure on the high-margin motorway and airport activities that have long supported cash generation. Does expansion in newer segments deliver more than the concessions business can lose to domestic tax changes?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 787 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+65.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)11.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.98× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.06× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.84× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)7.9× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vinci S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DG.PA
Frequently asked questions
Is Vinci S.A. (DG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €186.68 versus a price of €112.95, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DG?
Our model-based fair value for Vinci S.A. is €186.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €112.95.
What is the quality score of DG?
Vinci S.A. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vinci S.A. (DG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €186.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €135.54, optimistic scenario €238.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vinci S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €186.68, about +65% upside versus a price of €112.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €135.54, optimistic scenario €238.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
Vinci S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €75.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Vinci S.A. pay a dividend?
Vinci S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 4.47% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vinci S.A. (DG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vinci S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -4.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DG use?
Our models discount Vinci S.A. at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vinci S.A. that is -4.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vinci S.A. (DG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vinci S.A. grew +11.3 % a year. The price currently implies -4.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vinci S.A. (DG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vinci S.A. (-4.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.63 %: that much free cash flow Vinci S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vinci S.A. it is €186.68 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €112.95. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vinci S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, DG trades below its calculated fair value: price €112.95, fair value €186.68, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€112.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€186.68). For Vinci S.A. the two are €73.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vinci S.A. worth?
The market values Vinci S.A. at about €63.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €112.95; our models calculate a fair value of €186.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DG?
Our models span a range for Vinci S.A.: cautious scenario €135.54, base €186.68, optimistic €238.44 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €112.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DG?
Vinci S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €186.68 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 14.2. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 2.1, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of DG?
The PEG ratio of Vinci S.A. is 2.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vinci S.A. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 16.3%, debt of 0.98 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DG from its 52-week high?
Vinci S.A. trades at €112.95, about 17% below its 52-week high of €136.83 and 8% above the low of €104.52 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €186.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vinci S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Ferrovial N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vinci S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €112.95, calculated fair value €186.68 (+65%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DG calculated?
We run Vinci S.A. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €186.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Vinci S.A. currently trades 39% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €112.95. Our model-based fair value is €186.68, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vinci S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€135.54). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Vinci S.A. (DG) come from?
Earnings per share at Vinci S.A. grew +8.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin +1.6 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vinci S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
The market capitalisation of Vinci S.A. is €63.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vinci S.A. is 0.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
Earnings per share at Vinci S.A. are €9.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
The dividend yield of Vinci S.A. is 4.5% (payout 56.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
The net margin of Vinci S.A. is 6.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vinci S.A. is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vinci S.A. is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vinci S.A. (DG)?
The operating margin of Vinci S.A. is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vinci S.A. (DG)?
Revenue at Vinci S.A. is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vinci S.A. (DG)?
Earnings per share at Vinci S.A. are growing +10.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vinci S.A. (DG) carry?
The net debt of Vinci S.A. is €20.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026