Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Devon Energy Corporation stock $40.09, price $42.88, that is 6.5% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.66 – $65.79 · fair‑value band $26.71 – $52.12 · the $42.88 price screens above the $40.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States.
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The company operates in Delaware Basin located in southeast New Mexico and west Texas, Eagle Ford located in North America, Anadarko Basin located in western Oklahoma, Williston Basin located in North Dakota, and Powder River Basin located in Wyoming.
Devon Energy Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) currently trades at $42.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.09, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $51.15 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $42.88 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.00, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $26.71 (bear) to $52.12 (bull), the price of $42.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Devon Energy Corporation reported revenue of $17.2B in FY2025 versus $12.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.6B in FY2025, compounding −1.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $47.2B Large · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 1.60 · EPS (TTM) $4.00 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 17.5% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −7%, DVN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$26.71Fair Value $40.09Bull$52.12
Price $42.88 · Downside -6.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.52 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$38.63$84.10$175.3774
EPV$23.74$29.15$34.0474
5Y EBITDA Exit$27.72$54.00$87.6273
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$38.63$84.10$175.3774
Owner Earnings$38.62$84.07$175.3271
5Y Revenue Exit$16.64$30.24$48.3271
5Y EBITDA Exit$27.72$54.00$87.6273
5Y P/E Exit$24.17$46.38$72.3069
10Y Revenue Exit$22.53$38.53$62.7465
10Y EBITDA Exit$30.83$57.11$98.4266
10Y P/E Exit$28.33$51.15$84.5262
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$16.33$86.14$119.2463
Lynch FV$23.69$33.84$43.9961
PEG = 1.0$23.69$33.84$43.9957
EPV$23.74$29.15$34.0474
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$5.64$12.91$23.1565
DDM Multi-Stage$5.64$10.28$13.3666
Multiples
P/E Multiple$25.22$33.63$42.0363
P/S Multiple$14.06$18.75$23.4458
P/B Multiple$18.13$24.18$30.2255
EV/EBIT$19.61$28.37$37.1465
EV/EBITDA$23.80$33.96$44.1267
EV/Revenue$6.44$12.07$17.6952
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$6.72$9.00$13.4354
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$38.11$79.71$162.9173
Rev-Margin DCF$16.64$30.21$48.5171
Economic Profit
Residual Income$16.88$22.92$40.9373
ROIC Compounder$28.57$44.48$65.1670
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$29.12$41.61$54.0967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
SaleAdam M VelaSVP & GENERAL COUNSEL24,342 shares at $47.21$1.1MMay 14, 2026
SaleJeffrey L RitenourEVP & CHIEF CORP DEV OFFICER70,029 shares at $46.66$3.3MMay 11, 2026
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.1% vs 0.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−12% → 22%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2026 (+48.3%) comes with 75% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about −15.2%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.3% a year for the price and +8.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Focus on higher-return Permian acreage after the Eagle Ford sale and Coterra integration supports stronger capital efficiency, yet the business retains only a limited moat in the commoditized E&P sector.
Main risk: EPA notices of violation or stricter environmental regulations could lead to fines, mitigation projects or limits on production across basins.
Bull case: By deploying AI to cut drilling and completion costs while focusing on longer-duration core assets after divestitures, the company could sustain competitive margins despite regulatory pressures.
Bear case: If environmental enforcement or climate policies tighten substantially, higher costs, operational restrictions or lower demand could materially reduce output and profitability in key regions.
Devon is selling its Eagle Ford assets to sharpen focus on the Permian while completing integration of the recent Coterra merger. The moves aim to improve capital efficiency and free cash flow through higher-return acreage and synergies. Will the portfolio high-grading deliver stronger returns per dollar invested than the prior multi-basin setup, or will execution on the combined operations prove more complex than expected?
Compare Devon Energy Corporation with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−6.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.5% · Above median
Return on assets8.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)17.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)41.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)64.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.04× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.51× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.9× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Devon Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DVN
Frequently asked questions
Is Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.09 versus a price of $42.88, about 7% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of DVN?
Our model-based fair value for Devon Energy Corporation is $40.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $42.88.
What is the quality score of DVN?
Devon Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.71, optimistic scenario $52.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Devon Energy Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.09, about 7% lower versus a price of $42.88 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $26.71, optimistic scenario $52.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
Devon Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Devon Energy Corporation pay a dividend?
Devon Energy Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 2.43% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Devon Energy Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +2.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DVN use?
Our models discount Devon Energy Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Devon Energy Corporation that is +2.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Devon Energy Corporation grew +28.9 % a year. The price currently implies +2.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Devon Energy Corporation (+2.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.94 %: that much free cash flow Devon Energy Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Devon Energy Corporation it is $40.09 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $42.88. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Devon Energy Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, DVN trades above its calculated fair value: price $42.88, fair value $40.09, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($42.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.09). For Devon Energy Corporation the two are $2.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Devon Energy Corporation worth?
The market values Devon Energy Corporation at about $47.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $42.88; our models calculate a fair value of $40.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DVN?
Our models span a range for Devon Energy Corporation: cautious scenario $26.71, base $40.09, optimistic $52.12 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $42.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DVN?
Devon Energy Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.09 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 9.5 (reported for FY2025: 10.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 8.1. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 3.0, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of DVN?
The PEG ratio of Devon Energy Corporation is 2.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Devon Energy Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 11.5%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DVN from its 52-week high?
Devon Energy Corporation trades at $42.88, about 18% below its 52-week high of $52.15 and 36% above the low of $31.54 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Devon Energy Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Devon Energy Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $42.88, calculated fair value $40.09 (−7%), Quality Score 43/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DVN calculated?
We run Devon Energy Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $40.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Devon Energy Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $42.88. Our model-based fair value is $40.09, about 7% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Devon Energy Corporation right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($26.71 to $52.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Devon Energy Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
The market capitalisation of Devon Energy Corporation is $47.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Devon Energy Corporation is 1.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
Earnings per share at Devon Energy Corporation are $4.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
The dividend yield of Devon Energy Corporation is 2.4% (payout 24.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 26.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
The net margin of Devon Energy Corporation is 17.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Devon Energy Corporation is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Devon Energy Corporation is 19.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
The operating margin of Devon Energy Corporation is 41.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
Revenue at Devon Energy Corporation is growing +64.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
Earnings per share at Devon Energy Corporation are growing +44.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) carry?
The net debt of Devon Energy Corporation is $7.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026