Empire Company Limited (EMP-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Empire Company Limited stock C$35.20, price C$49.71, that is 29.2% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$30.48 – C$57.00 · fair‑value band C$14.74 – C$48.57 · the C$49.71 price screens above the C$35.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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Empire Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the food retail and related real estate businesses in Canada. It operates through two segments, Food Retailing, and Investments and Other Operations.
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The company owns, affiliates, and franchises retail stores under the Sobeys, Safeway, IGA, Foodland, FreshCo, Thrifty Foods, Farm Boy, Longo's, and Lawtons Drugs brands; operates grocery e-commerce stores under the Voilà, IGA, and ThriftyFoods.com brands; and operates and/or supplies retail fuel locations.
It also owns interests in the Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust, an open-ended real estate investment trust to own, operate, and develop a portfolio of grocery and pharmacy-anchored shopping centers, freestanding stores, and mixed use developments; and various equity accounted interests in Genstar that develop residential real estate properties in Ontario, Western Canada, and the United States.
Empire Company Limited was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Stellarton, Canada.
Stock analysis
Empire Company Limited (EMP-A) currently trades at C$49.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$35.20, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$89.51 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the C$49.71 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$4.73, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$14.74 (bear) to C$48.57 (bull), the price of C$49.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Empire Company Limited reported revenue of C$32.0B in FY2026 versus C$30.3B in FY2022, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$198M in FY2026, compounding −28.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap C$11.4B (≈ $8.0B) Mid · P/E ratio 51.4 · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) C$0.9700 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −29%, EMP-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$14.74Fair Value C$35.20BullC$48.57
Price C$49.71 · Downside -29.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.0478 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19.8% vs −1.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.0% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited moat with thin margins and low returns marks Empire's position in the competitive grocery sector, while its main path forward lies in efficiency gains from discount banners and e-commerce.
Main risk: Named rivals such as Loblaw with its No Frills discount banner, Walmart Canada and Costco could attract price-sensitive customers or force Empire to cut prices, eroding margins in its grocery operations.
Bull case: Empire could accelerate expansion of its FreshCo discount stores and improve efficiency in its Voilà e-commerce platform to better match rivals and defend or increase its customer base.
Bear case: If discount and online competitors continue gaining ground, Empire might lose meaningful market share in price-sensitive segments, resulting in sustained pressure on margins throughout its store network.
Empire has formalized limits on property controls with the Competition Bureau, easing restrictions that kept competitors out of nearby locations. Our models see the shares as overvalued after the recent run. Will this open the door to more local rivalry that undercuts margins, or will the push into discount banners and e-commerce deliver enough efficiency gains to hold the edge?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 75 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−29.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.9% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)51.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.28× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.35× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA5.1× · Cheapest 25%
PEG2.07× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)13· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)35· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Empire Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EMP-A
Frequently asked questions
Is Empire Company Limited (EMP-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$35.20 versus a price of C$49.71, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EMP-A?
Our model-based fair value for Empire Company Limited is C$35.20 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$49.71.
What is the quality score of EMP-A?
Empire Company Limited has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$35.20 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$14.74, optimistic scenario C$48.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Empire Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$35.20, about 29% lower versus a price of C$49.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$14.74, optimistic scenario C$48.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
Empire Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$32.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Empire Company Limited pay a dividend?
Empire Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.77% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Empire Company Limited pays a dividend of C$0.88 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1995. The payout ratio is 24.7% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 90.7%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 9.77 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Empire Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -4.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.4 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EMP-A use?
Our models discount Empire Company Limited at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Empire Company Limited that is -4.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Empire Company Limited (EMP-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Empire Company Limited grew +2.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -4.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Empire Company Limited (-4.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.47 %: that much free cash flow Empire Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Empire Company Limited it is C$35.20 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of C$49.71. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Empire Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, EMP-A trades above its calculated fair value: price C$49.71, fair value C$35.20, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EMP-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$49.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$35.20). For Empire Company Limited the two are C$14.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Empire Company Limited worth?
The market values Empire Company Limited at about C$11.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is C$49.71; our models calculate a fair value of C$35.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EMP-A?
Our models span a range for Empire Company Limited: cautious scenario C$14.74, base C$35.20, optimistic C$48.57 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price C$49.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EMP-A?
Empire Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.4 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$35.20 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 15.3 (reported for FY2026: 56.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 15.0. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 2.3, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
What is the PEG ratio of EMP-A?
The PEG ratio of Empire Company Limited is 2.07 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Empire Company Limited (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EMP-A from its 52-week high?
Empire Company Limited trades at C$49.71, about 5% below its 52-week high of C$52.50 and 14% above the low of C$43.64 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$35.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Empire Company Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Empire Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price C$49.71, calculated fair value C$35.20 (−29%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EMP-A calculated?
We run Empire Company Limited through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$35.20 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2% above its aggregate fair value. Empire Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was C$49.71. Our model-based fair value is C$35.20, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Empire Company Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$48.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (C$14.74 to C$48.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A) come from?
Earnings per share at Empire Company Limited grew +8.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.6 %, EBIT margin +6.8 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Empire Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
The market capitalisation of Empire Company Limited is C$11.4B (≈ $8.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Empire Company Limited is 0.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
Earnings per share at Empire Company Limited are C$0.9700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 51.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
The dividend yield of Empire Company Limited is 1.8% (payout 24.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 90.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
The net margin of Empire Company Limited is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Empire Company Limited is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Empire Company Limited is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
The operating margin of Empire Company Limited is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
Revenue at Empire Company Limited is growing +2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Empire Company Limited (EMP-A)?
Earnings per share at Empire Company Limited are growing +14.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Empire Company Limited (EMP-A) carry?
The net debt of Empire Company Limited is C$7.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 10, 2026