Empire Company (EMP-A) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CA · Market cap C$11.0B
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from C$63.74 to C$18.13 (−71.6%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +2.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$22.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$30.48 – C$57.00 · fair‑value band C$13.60 – C$22.66 · the C$50.01 price screens above the C$18.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Empire Company (EMP-A) currently trades at C$50.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$18.13, implying the stock looks roughly 63.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Empire Company generated revenue of C$31.9B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.9%. Net debt stands at C$7.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$13.60 (bear case) to C$22.66 (bull case); at C$50.01, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -64%, EMP-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (C$69.21) versus Dividend Discount (C$12.41). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Empire Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the food retail and related real estate businesses in Canada. It operates through two segments, Food Retailing, and Investments and Other Operations.
Full company description
Empire Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the food retail and related real estate businesses in Canada. It operates through two segments, Food Retailing, and Investments and Other Operations. The company owns, affiliates, and franchises retail stores under the Sobeys, Safeway, IGA, Foodland, FreshCo, Thrifty Foods, Farm Boy, Longo's, and Lawtons Drugs brands; operates grocery e-commerce stores under the Voilà, IGA, and ThriftyFoods.com brands; and operates and/or supplies retail fuel locations. It also owns interests in the Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust, an open-ended real estate investment trust to own, operate, and develop a portfolio of grocery and pharmacy-anchored shopping centers, freestanding stores, and mixed use developments; and various equity accounted interests in Genstar that develop residential real estate properties in Ontario, Western Canada, and the United States. Empire Company Limited was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Stellarton, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Empire Company reported revenue of C$32.0B in FY2026 versus C$30.3B in FY2022, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$198M in FY2026, compounding −28.2%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +3.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
EMP-A screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Empire Company Limited releases statement regarding property controls
- Empire Company Limited Announces Renewal of Normal Course Issuer Bid
- Empire Co Ltd (EMLAF) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EPS Growth and Strategic ...
- Empire Reports EPS of $0.94 in the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2026 Results
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$65.49 | C$44.44 | -32% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €36.30 | €53.50 | +47% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $58.82 | $28.19 | -52% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$39.20 | A$13.40 | -66% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$100.98 | C$63.61 | -37% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.56 | A$15.86 | -33% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$93.64 | C$94.01 | +0% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €16.40 | €11.51 | -30% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.89 SGD | 2.36 SGD | +25% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 385.75 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -31% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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