Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Erie Indemnity Company stock $113, price $280, that is 59.5% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $148.70 – $526.55 · fair‑value band $77.52 – $141.65 · the $279.96 price screens above the $113.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States.
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It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services that include underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services.
The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) currently trades at $279.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $113.32, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $100.20 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $279.96 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $69.21, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $77.52 (bear) to $141.65 (bull), the price of $279.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Erie Indemnity Company reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was $559M in FY2025, compounding +17.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $14.6B Large · P/E ratio 23.7 · P/S ratio 3.55 · EPS (TTM) $11.01 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 24.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −60%, ERIE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$77.52Fair Value $113.32Bull$141.65
Price $279.96 · Downside -59.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.46 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $1.4M, on Jun 2, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $100,952.
BuyElizabeth A VorsheckDirector, 10% owner7,000 shares at $204.79$1.4MJun 2, 2026
SaleAnthony DaBreoSenior Vice President, Life465 shares at $217.10$100,952May 8, 2026
Plus 25 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.8% vs 13.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−10% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.5% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The fee-based structure yields steady management fees without underwriting risk, yet slowed premium growth limits long-term expansion potential.
Main risk: Ongoing subscriber lawsuits allege fiduciary breaches in setting the maximum 25 percent management fee, which could force reductions or structural changes to the fee arrangement with the Exchange and hit revenue.
Bull case: By sustaining strong agent relationships and deploying targeted AI tools for claims and underwriting the company could support premium growth at the Exchange and preserve the fee arrangement.
Bear case: If court rulings or regulatory pressure reduce the fee rate or if the Exchange’s underwriting losses and policy shrinkage persist the management-fee revenue base could contract materially.
Erie Indemnity earns steady management fees as attorney-in-fact for the Erie Insurance Exchange without bearing underwriting risk itself. Premium growth slowed to 3.3 percent in the second quarter from much higher rates the prior year. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Does the fee-based structure deliver more stability than traditional insurers enjoy, or does slower expansion cap long-term potential?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 31 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Above median
Fair Value upside−59.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.8% · Above median
Return on assets16.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.7× · Pricier than median
P/B6.41× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.55× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow25.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA17.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.67× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)14· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)99· sector 69
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 74
DIVIDEND (yield)41· sector 66
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Erie Indemnity Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ERIE
Frequently asked questions
Is Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $113.32 versus a price of $279.96, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ERIE?
Our model-based fair value for Erie Indemnity Company is $113.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $279.96.
What is the quality score of ERIE?
Erie Indemnity Company has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $113.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $77.52, optimistic scenario $141.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Erie Indemnity Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $113.32, about 60% lower versus a price of $279.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $77.52, optimistic scenario $141.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
Erie Indemnity Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Erie Indemnity Company pay a dividend?
Erie Indemnity Company currently shows a dividend yield of 2.05% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Erie Indemnity Company would have to grow free cash flow by +9.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ERIE use?
Our models discount Erie Indemnity Company at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Erie Indemnity Company that is +9.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Erie Indemnity Company grew +9.6 % a year. The price currently implies +9.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Erie Indemnity Company (+9.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.90 %: that much free cash flow Erie Indemnity Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Erie Indemnity Company it is $113.32 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $279.96. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Erie Indemnity Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ERIE trades above its calculated fair value: price $279.96, fair value $113.32, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ERIE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($279.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($113.32). For Erie Indemnity Company the two are $166.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Erie Indemnity Company worth?
The market values Erie Indemnity Company at about $14.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $279.96; our models calculate a fair value of $113.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ERIE?
Our models span a range for Erie Indemnity Company: cautious scenario $77.52, base $113.32, optimistic $141.65 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $279.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ERIE?
Erie Indemnity Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $113.32 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 33.7. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 6.4, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 17.2.
What is the PEG ratio of ERIE?
The PEG ratio of Erie Indemnity Company is 2.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Erie Indemnity Company (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 24.8%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ERIE from its 52-week high?
Erie Indemnity Company trades at $279.96, about 5% below its 52-week high of $294.82 and 36% above the low of $206.06 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $113.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Erie Indemnity Company?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co, Aon plc, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Erie Indemnity Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $279.96, calculated fair value $113.32 (−60%), Quality Score 66/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ERIE calculated?
We run Erie Indemnity Company through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $113.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Erie Indemnity Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $279.96. Our model-based fair value is $113.32, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Erie Indemnity Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($141.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($77.52 to $141.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) come from?
Earnings per share at Erie Indemnity Company grew +13.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin +5.0 %, tax rate +4.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Erie Indemnity Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
The market capitalisation of Erie Indemnity Company is $14.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Erie Indemnity Company is 3.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
Earnings per share at Erie Indemnity Company are $11.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
The dividend yield of Erie Indemnity Company is 2.1% (payout 52.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
The net margin of Erie Indemnity Company is 14.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Erie Indemnity Company is 24.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Erie Indemnity Company is 14.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
The operating margin of Erie Indemnity Company is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
Revenue at Erie Indemnity Company is growing +2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)?
Earnings per share at Erie Indemnity Company are growing +3.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) hold?
Erie Indemnity Company holds more cash than debt, $346M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026