Exponent Inc (EXPO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Exponent Inc stock $38.43, price $84.02, that is 54.3% below the price, quality 82 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $53.15 – $117.58 · fair‑value band $29.56 – $47.31 · the $84.02 price screens above the $38.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Exponent, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a science and engineering consulting company in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineering and Other Scientific, and Environmental and Health.
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It provides services in the areas of biomechanics, biomedical engineering and sciences, civil and structural engineering, construction consulting, data sciences, electrical engineering and computer science, human factors, materials and corrosion engineering, mechanical engineering, metallurgical and corrosion engineering polymer and chemistry, thermal sciences, and vehicle engineering.
The company also offers services in the areas of chemical regulation and food safety, ecological and biological sciences, environmental and earth sciences, and health sciences. In addition, it provides proactive and reactive product safety, litigation support, and technical, regulatory services.
It serves clients in chemical, construction, consumer products, energy, food, beverage and nutrition, government, life sciences, insurance, manufacturing, technology, industrial equipment, transportation, and other sectors.
The company was formerly known as The Failure Group, Inc. and changed its name to Exponent, Inc. in 1998. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.
Stock analysis
Exponent Inc (EXPO) currently trades at $84.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.43, 54% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $46.44 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $84.02 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $19.96, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $29.56 (bear) to $47.31 (bull), the price of $84.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Exponent Inc reported revenue of $582M in FY2025 versus $400M in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was $106M in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.1B Mid · P/E ratio 36.7 · P/S ratio 7.26 · EPS (TTM) $2.29 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 19.7% · Return on equity 31.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −54%, EXPO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$29.56Fair Value $38.43Bull$47.31
Price $84.02 · Downside -54.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9146 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.3M and none bought.
SaleRichard ReissGroup Vice President2× since May 19, 2026: 2,952 shares, avg. $70.70$208,706Nov 3, 2026
SaleCatherine CorriganChief Executive Officer, Director9× since Nov 17, 2025: 33,286 shares, avg. $65.19$2.2MAug 17, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBradley A JamesGroup Vice President2,000 shares at $57.47$114,940May 26, 2026
SaleJoseph SalaGroup Vice President2,066 shares at $56.66$117,060May 13, 2026
SaleJoseph RakowGroup Vice President2,945 shares at $54.66$160,974May 13, 2026
SaleJohn PyeVP Global Offices & Innovation4,000 shares at $75.98$303,906Feb 10, 2026
Plan buyShukri Jeries SouriGroup Vice President184 shares at $68.45$12,595Sep 18, 2026
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.0% vs 10.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 21%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.5% a year for the price and +4.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Exponent's multidisciplinary team of specialists that is nearly impossible to replicate forms its main strength for complex challenges with widening demand from AI and energy, yet thin public data leaves durability uncertain.
Main risk: Difficulty adding talent and maintaining utilization would hit the conversion of widening demand from AI, data centers and energy into sustained results.
Exponent has assembled a multidisciplinary team of specialists that is nearly impossible to replicate and solves the most complex engineering and scientific challenges. AI, data centers, energy risks and chemicals of concern are widening the frontier where that expertise is needed. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued, so will the growing demand at that edge drive results higher than expected or will adding talent and maintaining utilization prove harder than it looks?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 791 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score82 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−54.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)31.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)18.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exponent Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXPO
Frequently asked questions
Is Exponent Inc (EXPO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.43 versus a price of $84.02, about 54% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXPO?
Our model-based fair value for Exponent Inc is $38.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $84.02.
What is the quality score of EXPO?
Exponent Inc has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.56, optimistic scenario $47.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exponent Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.43, about 54% lower versus a price of $84.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $29.56, optimistic scenario $47.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
Exponent Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $567M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Exponent Inc pay a dividend?
Exponent Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.45% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Exponent Inc (EXPO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Exponent Inc pays a dividend of $1.22 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2013. The payout ratio is 53.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.11 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Exponent Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXPO use?
Our models discount Exponent Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Exponent Inc that is +16.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Exponent Inc (EXPO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Exponent Inc grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +16.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Exponent Inc (EXPO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Exponent Inc (+16.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.97 %: that much free cash flow Exponent Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exponent Inc it is $38.43 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $84.02. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Exponent Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, EXPO trades above its calculated fair value: price $84.02, fair value $38.43, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXPO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($84.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.43). For Exponent Inc the two are $45.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exponent Inc worth?
The market values Exponent Inc at about $4.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $84.02; our models calculate a fair value of $38.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXPO?
Our models span a range for Exponent Inc: cautious scenario $29.56, base $38.43, optimistic $47.31 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $84.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXPO?
Exponent Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.43 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 47.2. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 10.5, P/S 7.3, EV/EBITDA 28.3.
What is the PEG ratio of EXPO?
The PEG ratio of Exponent Inc is 2.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exponent Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 31.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 82/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXPO from its 52-week high?
Exponent Inc trades at $84.02, about 4% below its 52-week high of $87.43 and 58% above the low of $53.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exponent Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exponent Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $84.02, calculated fair value $38.43 (−54%), Quality Score 82/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXPO calculated?
We run Exponent Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $38.43 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Exponent Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $84.02. Our model-based fair value is $38.43, about 54% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exponent Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($47.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Exponent Inc (EXPO) come from?
Earnings per share at Exponent Inc grew +10.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin +1.0 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Exponent Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
The market capitalisation of Exponent Inc is $4.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exponent Inc is 7.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
Earnings per share at Exponent Inc are $2.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
The dividend yield of Exponent Inc is 1.5% (payout 53.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
The net margin of Exponent Inc is 19.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exponent Inc is 31.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exponent Inc is 17.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
The operating margin of Exponent Inc is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
Revenue at Exponent Inc is growing +12.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exponent Inc (EXPO)?
Earnings per share at Exponent Inc are growing +15.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Exponent Inc (EXPO) hold?
Exponent Inc holds more cash than debt, $139M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026