First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of First Financial Bankshares Inc stock $15.35, price $30.41, that is 49.5% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.58 – $49.02 · fair‑value band $12.69 – $21.47 · the $30.41 price screens above the $15.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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First Financial Bankshares, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides banking services in the United States.
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The company offers general commercial banking services, including checking, savings and time deposits, loans, automated teller machines, drive-in and night deposit services, safe deposit facilities, remote deposit capture, internet banking, mobile banking, payroll cards, funds transfer, and other customary commercial banking service, as well as securities brokerage services.
It also provides personal trust services, such as wealth management; administration of estates, oil and gas management; farm and ranch; property management; testamentary trusts; revocable and irrevocable trusts; and agency accounts.
In addition, the company offers commercial and industrial; municipal; agricultural; construction and development; farm; residential; consumer auto and non-auto; and non-owner occupied and owner occupied commercial real estate loans.
Further, it provides advice and specialized services related to lending, investing, purchasing, advertising, public relations, and technology services. First Financial Bankshares, Inc. was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Abilene, Texas.
Stock analysis
First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN) currently trades at $30.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.35, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $19.33 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $30.41 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.50, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.69 (bear) to $21.47 (bull), the price of $30.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
First Financial Bankshares Inc reported revenue of $826M in FY2025 versus $506M in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was $254M in FY2025, compounding +2.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.4B Mid · P/E ratio 15.1 · P/S ratio 6.50 · EPS (TTM) $2.02 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 43.3% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −50%, FFIN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.69Fair Value $15.35Bull$21.47
Price $30.41 · Downside -49.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.03 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors bought shares worth $310,521, most recently on Oct 30, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $524,250. Buying cluster
BuyMurray Hamilton EdwardsDirector4× since Feb 5, 2026: 3,300 shares, avg. $31.52$104,013Oct 30, 2026
BuyMichael B. DennyDirector2× since Aug 18, 2026: 6,245 shares, avg. $32.63$203,796Oct 29, 2026
BuyRobert Clark Nickles JrDirector4× since Feb 2, 2026: 2,813 shares, avg. $32.28$90,811Oct 23, 2026
SaleRonald David Butler IIEVP/CAO15,000 shares at $34.95$524,250Aug 17, 2026
BuyJohnny TrotterDirector2× since Mar 5, 2026: 5,000 shares, avg. $29.87$149,340Mar 12, 2026
BuyGeoff HaneyDirector2× since Feb 20, 2026: 11,700 shares, avg. $32.67$382,206Mar 12, 2026
BuyMichelle S HickoxEVP/CFO2,000 shares at $29.50$59,000Mar 9, 2026
BuySally Pope DavisDirector2× since Mar 2, 2026: 3,400 shares, avg. $30.32$103,072Mar 6, 2026
BuyBrian D. GoodrichEVP - General Counsel2× since Mar 5, 2026: 3,230 shares, avg. $30.01$96,920Mar 6, 2026
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.1% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.5% vs 8.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.49% → 38%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (84 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Limited evidence points to moderate advantage for this regional bank through its Texas network growth, while the main weakness remains exposure to interest rate and competition pressures typical in the sector.
Main risk: Interest rate and competition pressure in the regional banking environment would hit earnings momentum and returns on the Austin expansion.
First Financial Bankshares is opening its first full-service branch near Austin in Bee Cave later this month, building on an existing mortgage office there. The step extends the bank's Texas network into a high-growth market while adding lending and deposit capabilities for local customers and businesses. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued, so does the expansion into Austin deliver enough new earnings momentum to close that gap or will returns stay pressured by the broader regional banking environment?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−49.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)43.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)56.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.28× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.50× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.4× · Pricier than median
PEG2.55× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)64· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)54· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.35 versus a price of $30.41, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FFIN?
Our model-based fair value for First Financial Bankshares Inc is $15.35 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.41.
What is the quality score of FFIN?
First Financial Bankshares Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.35 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.69, optimistic scenario $21.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Financial Bankshares Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.35, about 50% lower versus a price of $30.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.69, optimistic scenario $21.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
First Financial Bankshares Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $672M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does First Financial Bankshares Inc pay a dividend?
First Financial Bankshares Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
First Financial Bankshares Inc pays a dividend of $0.82 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 14, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1993. The payout ratio is 40.6% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Financial Bankshares Inc it is $15.35 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $30.41. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is First Financial Bankshares Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, FFIN trades above its calculated fair value: price $30.41, fair value $15.35, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FFIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.35). For First Financial Bankshares Inc the two are $15.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Financial Bankshares Inc worth?
The market values First Financial Bankshares Inc at about $4.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $30.41; our models calculate a fair value of $15.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FFIN?
Our models span a range for First Financial Bankshares Inc: cautious scenario $12.69, base $15.35, optimistic $21.47 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $30.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FFIN?
First Financial Bankshares Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.35 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 23.1. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 2.3, P/S 6.5, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
What is the PEG ratio of FFIN?
The PEG ratio of First Financial Bankshares Inc is 2.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Financial Bankshares Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FFIN from its 52-week high?
First Financial Bankshares Inc trades at $30.41, about 16% below its 52-week high of $36.26 and 8% above the low of $28.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Financial Bankshares Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Financial Bankshares Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $30.41, calculated fair value $15.35 (−50%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FFIN calculated?
We run First Financial Bankshares Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $15.35 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. First Financial Bankshares Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $30.41. Our model-based fair value is $15.35, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Financial Bankshares Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN) come from?
Earnings per share at First Financial Bankshares Inc grew +8.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.9 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of First Financial Bankshares Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
The market capitalisation of First Financial Bankshares Inc is $4.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Financial Bankshares Inc is 6.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
Earnings per share at First Financial Bankshares Inc are $2.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
The dividend yield of First Financial Bankshares Inc is 2.7% (payout 40.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
The net margin of First Financial Bankshares Inc is 43.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Financial Bankshares Inc is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Financial Bankshares Inc is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
The operating margin of First Financial Bankshares Inc is 56.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
Revenue at First Financial Bankshares Inc is growing +25.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)?
Earnings per share at First Financial Bankshares Inc are growing +44.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN) generate?
The free cash flow of First Financial Bankshares Inc is $307M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN) hold?
First Financial Bankshares Inc holds more cash than debt, $1.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026