Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Futu Holdings Ltd stock $196, price $98.06, upside +100.0%, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.45 – $195.90 · fair‑value band $56.17 – $341.52 · the $98.06 price screens below the $196.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally.
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It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and fund distribution services through its Futubull and Moomoo digital platforms.
The company also provides financial information and online community services; online wealth management services under the Money Plus brand name through its Futubull and moomoo platforms, which provides its client access to mutual funds, private funds, bonds, structured products, and other wealth management products; market data and information services; and NiuNiu Community, an open forum for users and clients to share insights, ask questions, and exchange ideas.
Futu Holdings Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU) currently trades at $98.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $196.12, implying the stock looks roughly 50% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $424.94 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the $98.06 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $24.28, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $56.17 (bear) to $341.52 (bull), the price of $98.06 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Futu Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$22.8B in FY2025 versus HK$7.1B in FY2021, a compound +33.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$11.3B in FY2025, compounding +41.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $13.7B Large · P/E ratio 10.4 · P/S ratio 5.17 · EPS (TTM) $10.08 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 49.6% · Return on equity 30.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 100%, FUTU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$56.17Fair Value $196.12Bull$341.52
Price $98.06 · Upside +100.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.62 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+67.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +137.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+120.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+47.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+44.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 62%
2025 sits 162% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (83 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: The scalable brokerage platform sustains strong operating margins with worldwide user growth, yet reliance on mainland Chinese clients exposes it to regulatory restrictions and compliance costs.
Main risk: Binance and similar crypto exchanges now let users trade US stocks directly, which could pull clients away from Futu’s brokerage platform and reduce trading volumes and related revenue.
Bull case: Futu could strengthen its platform with advanced AI agents, community features and broader international licensing to retain users and attract new ones outside traditional channels.
Bear case: If clients shift to crypto platforms for cross-border trading, Futu’s trading activity and associated interest or commission income could decline materially over time.
Futu runs a highly scalable brokerage platform that maintains strong operating margins even as it adds users worldwide. Mainland Chinese clients still contribute a meaningful slice of revenue, however, and Chinese regulators have proposed a substantial penalty tied to past unlicensed activities there. Will international expansion replace that revenue stream fast enough to offset compliance costs and restrictions, or will the regulatory overhang keep capping the business?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+100.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)30.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)46.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)66.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
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Is Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $196.12 versus a price of $98.06, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FUTU?
Our model-based fair value for Futu Holdings Ltd is $196.12 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $98.06.
What is the quality score of FUTU?
Futu Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $196.12 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $56.17, optimistic scenario $341.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Futu Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $196.12, about +100% upside versus a price of $98.06 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $56.17, optimistic scenario $341.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
Futu Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$24.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Futu Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Futu Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.71% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Futu Holdings Ltd has a dividend yield of 2.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 16, 2026. The payout ratio is 17.6% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Futu Holdings Ltd it is $196.12 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $98.06. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Futu Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, FUTU trades below its calculated fair value: price $98.06, fair value $196.12, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FUTU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($98.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($196.12). For Futu Holdings Ltd the two are $98.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Futu Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Futu Holdings Ltd at about $13.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $98.06; our models calculate a fair value of $196.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FUTU?
Our models span a range for Futu Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario $56.17, base $196.12, optimistic $341.52 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $98.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FUTU?
Futu Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.4 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $196.12 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 16.0. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 4.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Futu Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 30.5%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FUTU from its 52-week high?
Futu Holdings Ltd trades at $98.06, about 47% below its 52-week high of $185.14 and 9% above the low of $89.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $196.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Futu Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Futu Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $98.06, calculated fair value $196.12 (+100%), Quality Score 80/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FUTU calculated?
We run Futu Holdings Ltd through 13 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $196.12 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Futu Holdings Ltd currently trades 50% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $98.06. Our model-based fair value is $196.12, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Futu Holdings Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (80/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The model range is unusually wide ($56.17 to $341.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Futu Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
The market capitalisation of Futu Holdings Ltd is $13.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Futu Holdings Ltd is 5.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
Earnings per share at Futu Holdings Ltd are $10.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
The dividend yield of Futu Holdings Ltd is 2.7% (payout 26.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
The net margin of Futu Holdings Ltd is 49.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Futu Holdings Ltd is 30.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Futu Holdings Ltd is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
The operating margin of Futu Holdings Ltd is 66.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
Revenue at Futu Holdings Ltd is growing +35.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +44.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)?
Earnings per share at Futu Holdings Ltd are growing +43.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU) generate?
The free cash flow of Futu Holdings Ltd is HK$40.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU) hold?
Futu Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$106B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 8, 2026