Futu Holdings (FUTU) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $13.5B
Futu Holdings
FUTU · US
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 35 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $74.56 to $50.08 (−32.8%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +14.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($62.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.45 – $195.90 · fair‑value band $37.56 – $62.60 · the $109.02 price screens above the $50.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
Futu Holdings (FUTU) currently trades at $109.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.08, implying the stock looks roughly 54.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Futu Holdings generated revenue of $22.3B at a net margin of 45.0%. Revenue grew 28.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $106B. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $37.56 (bear case) to $62.60 (bull case); at $109.02, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -54%, FUTU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($9,913) versus Asset-Based ($189.58). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and fund distribution services through its Futubull and Moomoo digital platforms.
Full company description
Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and fund distribution services through its Futubull and Moomoo digital platforms. The company also provides financial information and online community services; online wealth management services under the Money Plus brand name through its Futubull and moomoo platforms, which provides its client access to mutual funds, private funds, bonds, structured products, and other wealth management products; market data and information services; and NiuNiu Community, an open forum for users and clients to share insights, ask questions, and exchange ideas. Futu Holdings Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Futu Holdings reported revenue of $22.8B in FY2025 versus $7.1B in FY2021, a compound +33.8%/yr. Reported net income was $11.3B in FY2025, compounding +41.7%/yr from FY2021.
FUTU screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Huatai Securities Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- FUTU FINAL DEADLINE: ROSEN, A GLOBALLY RESPECTED LAW FIRM, Encourages Futu Holdings Limited Investors to Secure Counsel Before Important Dea
- FUTU Shareholder Alert: Futu Holdings Limited Securities Class Action Lawsuit - Investors With Losses May Contact The Gross Law Firm
- FUTU DEADLINE: ROSEN, SKILLED INVESTOR COUNSEL, Encourages Futu Holdings Limited Investors to Secure Counsel Before Important Deadline in Se
- Futu Holdings Limited Securities Fraud Class Action Result of Undisclosed Regulatory Compliance Failures and approximately 32% Stock Decline
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 425 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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