Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Greatland Resources Limited stock A$12.32, price A$10.88, upside +13.2%, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
17‑month range A$4.98 – A$15.23 · fair‑value band A$7.96 – A$21.64 · the A$10.88 price screens below the A$12.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
Follow Greatland Resources in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Greatland Resources is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Greatland Resources Limited operates as a gold and copper mining company.
Show moreShow less
The company owns a 100% interest in the Telfer gold-copper mine located in the Paterson region of Western Australia; and in the Havieron brownfield development project, a gold-copper deposit located in Western Australia, as well as owns various exploration projects across Western Australia.
Greatland Resources Limited was incorporated in 2023 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Stock analysis
Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) currently trades at A$10.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$12.32, implying the stock looks roughly 12% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of A$32.48 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$10.88 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$7.44, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$7.96 (bear) to A$21.64 (bull), the price of A$10.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Greatland Resources Limited reported revenue of A$1.2B in FY2026 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was A$450M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$7.5B (≈ $5.2B) Mid · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 3.32 · EPS (TTM) A$1.26 · Net margin 38.2% · Return on equity 48.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 54.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 90 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 13%, GGP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$7.96Fair Value A$12.32BullA$21.64
Price A$10.88 · Upside +13.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.4557 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$9.91A$14.57A$28.9677
Growth DCFA$9.36A$14.49A$25.4676
EPVA$6.57A$7.42A$8.1674
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$9.91A$14.57A$28.9677
Owner EarningsA$7.49A$15.19A$30.4972
5Y Revenue ExitA$5.04A$6.96A$10.9172
5Y EBITDA ExitA$9.23A$15.44A$27.6172
5Y P/E ExitA$9.80A$20.48A$35.0068
10Y Revenue ExitA$6.51A$10.72A$12.6768
10Y EBITDA ExitA$9.55A$19.44A$36.5065
10Y P/E ExitA$9.95A$20.63A$38.0960
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$4.53A$31.62A$44.3763
Lynch FVA$23.34A$33.34A$43.3461
PEG = 1.0A$23.34A$33.34A$43.3457
EPVA$6.57A$7.42A$8.1674
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$8.50A$11.34A$14.1763
P/S MultipleA$1.97A$2.62A$3.2858
P/B MultipleA$1.62A$2.16A$2.7055
EV/EBITA$10.61A$13.82A$17.0366
EV/EBITDAA$8.70A$11.27A$13.8467
EV/RevenueA$2.81A$3.60A$4.3954
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.3300A$0.5000A$0.630054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$9.36A$14.49A$25.4676
Rev-Margin DCFA$5.39A$7.84A$13.0271
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$3.91A$6.31A$15.7662
ROIC CompounderA$7.29A$9.19A$11.2772
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$14.34A$20.49A$26.6467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+156.8%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+89.9%
’07
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.3% a year for the price and −3.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (24 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business shows solid profitability as its main strength, yet lacks sufficient public evidence of a durable competitive advantage as its primary weakness.
Main risk: Execution challenges at the Telfer and Havieron sites could prevent the conversion of the strong balance sheet and upgraded reserves into sustained free cash flow.
Greatland has appointed a new COO specifically to run operations across Telfer and the Havieron development. The move arrives just as the company enters a phase of lower production guidance while committing hundreds of millions to growth capex and life extension drilling. Will tighter operational oversight convert the strong balance sheet and upgraded reserves into sustained free cash flow, or will execution challenges at the two sites limit the upside?
Compare Greatland Resources Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 205 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+13.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)48.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets27.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)38.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)54.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)36.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B6.45× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.32× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)19.3× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$12.32 versus a price of A$10.88, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GGP?
Our model-based fair value for Greatland Resources Limited is A$12.32 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$10.88.
What is the quality score of GGP?
Greatland Resources Limited has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$12.32 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$7.96, optimistic scenario A$21.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greatland Resources Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$12.32, about +13% upside versus a price of A$10.88 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$7.96, optimistic scenario A$21.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Greatland Resources Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Greatland Resources Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +7.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 19 years revenue grew +89.9 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GGP use?
Our models discount Greatland Resources Limited at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Greatland Resources Limited that is +7.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) delivered so far?
Over the past 19 years revenue at Greatland Resources Limited grew +89.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Greatland Resources Limited (+7.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.17 %: that much free cash flow Greatland Resources Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greatland Resources Limited it is A$12.32 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of A$10.88. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Greatland Resources Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, GGP trades below its calculated fair value: price A$10.88, fair value A$12.32, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GGP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$10.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$12.32). For Greatland Resources Limited the two are A$1.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greatland Resources Limited worth?
The market values Greatland Resources Limited at about A$7.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is A$10.88; our models calculate a fair value of A$12.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GGP?
Our models span a range for Greatland Resources Limited: cautious scenario A$7.96, base A$12.32, optimistic A$21.64 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price A$10.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GGP?
Greatland Resources Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$12.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.5, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greatland Resources Limited (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 48.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GGP from its 52-week high?
Greatland Resources Limited trades at A$10.88, about 29% below its 52-week high of A$15.23 and 48% above the low of A$7.35 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$12.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greatland Resources Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greatland Resources Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price A$10.88, calculated fair value A$12.32 (+13%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GGP calculated?
We run Greatland Resources Limited through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$12.32 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Greatland Resources Limited currently trades 12% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$10.88. Our model-based fair value is A$12.32, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greatland Resources Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$7.96 to A$21.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Greatland Resources Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The market capitalisation of Greatland Resources Limited is A$7.5B (≈ $5.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Greatland Resources Limited is 3.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Earnings per share at Greatland Resources Limited are A$1.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The net margin of Greatland Resources Limited is 38.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greatland Resources Limited is 48.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greatland Resources Limited is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The operating margin of Greatland Resources Limited is 54.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Revenue at Greatland Resources Limited is growing +36.3% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Earnings per share at Greatland Resources Limited are growing +67.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) hold?
Greatland Resources Limited holds more cash than debt, A$661M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Greatland Resources Limited in the live analysis
One click puts Greatland Resources Limited on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 9, 2026