Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Greatland Resources Limited A$3.70, price A$11.18, upside -66.9%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
15‑month range A$4.98 – A$15.23 · fair‑value band A$2.87 – A$4.55 · the A$11.18 price screens above the A$3.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Greatland Resources Limited operates as a gold and copper mining company.
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Greatland Resources Limited operates as a gold and copper mining company. The company owns a 100% interest in the Telfer gold-copper mine located in the Paterson region of Western Australia; and in the Havieron brownfield development project, a gold-copper deposit located in Western Australia, as well as owns various exploration projects across Western Australia. Greatland Resources Limited was incorporated in 2023 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Stock analysis
Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) currently trades at A$11.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.70, implying the stock looks roughly 202.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$4.17 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$11.18 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.6400, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$2.87 (bear) to A$4.55 (bull), the price of A$11.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Greatland Resources Limited reported revenue of A$459M in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was A$162M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$6.7B (≈ $4.7B) · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 2.23 · EPS (TTM) A$1.77 · Net margin 35.2% · Return on equity 47.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.1% · Operating margin 49.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −67%, GGP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$2.87Fair Value A$3.70Bull A$4.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$1.77 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+43.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.9% a year for the price and +39.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (12 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Greatland Resources Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−67% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)48% · Top 25%
Return on assets26% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)34% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)49% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth58% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)6.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B7.34× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.46× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF23.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 20
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.70 versus a price of A$11.18, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GGP?
Our model-based fair value for Greatland Resources Limited is A$3.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$11.18.
What is the quality score of GGP?
Greatland Resources Limited has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.87, optimistic scenario A$4.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greatland Resources Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.70, about −67% upside versus a price of A$11.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.87, optimistic scenario A$4.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Greatland Resources Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +16.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GGP use?
Our models discount Greatland Resources Limited at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Greatland Resources Limited that is +16.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How fast is the sector of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Greatland Resources Limited (+16.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.37 %: that much free cash flow Greatland Resources Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greatland Resources Limited it is A$3.70 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$11.18. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Greatland Resources Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GGP trades above its calculated fair value: price A$11.18, fair value A$3.70, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GGP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$11.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.70). For Greatland Resources Limited the two are A$7.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greatland Resources Limited worth?
The market values Greatland Resources Limited at about A$6.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$11.18; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GGP?
Our models span a range for Greatland Resources Limited: cautious scenario A$2.87, base A$3.70, optimistic A$4.55 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$11.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GGP?
Greatland Resources Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.3, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 4.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greatland Resources Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 47.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GGP from its 52-week high?
Greatland Resources Limited trades at A$11.18, about 27% below its 52-week high of A$15.23 and 64% above the low of A$6.83 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greatland Resources Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greatland Resources Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$11.18, calculated fair value A$3.70 (−67%), Quality Score 80/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GGP calculated?
We run Greatland Resources Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Greatland Resources Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$11.18. Our model-based fair value is A$3.70, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greatland Resources Limited right now?
A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Key figures of Greatland Resources Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The market capitalisation of Greatland Resources Limited is A$6.7B (≈ $4.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Greatland Resources Limited is 2.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Earnings per share at Greatland Resources Limited are A$1.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The net margin of Greatland Resources Limited is 35.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greatland Resources Limited is 47.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greatland Resources Limited is −10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
The operating margin of Greatland Resources Limited is 49.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Revenue at Greatland Resources Limited is growing +58.0% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Greatland Resources Limited (GGP)?
Earnings per share at Greatland Resources Limited are growing +484% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) hold?
Greatland Resources Limited holds more cash than debt, A$260M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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