Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Granite Construction Incorporated stock $76.23, price $121, that is 36.7% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.59 – $160.08 · fair‑value band $55.76 – $101.48 · the $120.52 price screens above the $76.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Granite Construction Incorporated provides infrastructure solutions for public and private clients in the United States. It operates through Construction and Materials segments.
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The Construction segment engages in the construction and rehabilitation of roads, pavement preservation, bridges, rail lines, airports, marine ports, dams, reservoirs, aqueducts, infrastructure, and site development for use by the public and water-related construction for municipal agencies, commercial water suppliers, industrial facilities, and energy companies; and construction of various complex projects, including infrastructure and site development, mining, public safety, tunnel, solar, battery storage, and power related projects.
The Materials segment produces and delivers aggregates, asphalt concrete, liquid asphalt, and recycled materials for internal use in construction projects and sale to third parties.
It also provides site preparation, mining, and infrastructure services for railways, residential development, energy development, and commercial and industrial sites; produces construction materials; and provides construction management professional services, as well as owns and leases aggregate reserves and processing plants.
The company serves federal agencies, state departments of transportation, local transit authorities, county and city public works departments, school districts and developers, utilities, contractors, landscapers, manufacturers of products requiring aggregate materials, retailers, homeowners, farmers, brokers, and private owners of industrial, commercial, and residential sites.
Granite Construction Incorporated was incorporated in 1922 and is headquartered in Watsonville, California.
Stock analysis
Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) currently trades at $120.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $76.23, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $91.82 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $120.52 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.09, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $55.76 (bear) to $101.48 (bull), the price of $120.52 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Granite Construction Incorporated reported revenue of $4.4B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $193M in FY2025, compounding +109.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $5.3B Mid · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) $−4.32 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −5.0% · Return on equity −21.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 12.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −37%, GVA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$55.76Fair Value $76.23Bull$101.48
Price $120.52 · Downside -36.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $156,636, most recently on Aug 6, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $2.0M. Buying cluster
BuyCarlos M HernandezDirector400 shares at $123.99$49,596Aug 6, 2026
BuyJohn Timothy RomerDirector750 shares at $142.72$107,040Jun 15, 2026
SaleMichael G TatuskoSenior Vice President7,500 shares at $141.00$1.1MJun 8, 2026
SaleBradley Jay WilliamsSenior Vice President6,734 shares at $141.00$949,494Jun 8, 2026
SaleKyle T LarkinPresident & CEO, Director2× since Mar 19, 2026: 45,989 shares, avg. $117.96$5.4MMar 30, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleStaci M WoolseyChief Financial Officer3× since Nov 12, 2025: 6,524 shares, avg. $115.29$752,165Mar 27, 2026
SaleBrian R DowdSenior Vice President6,075 shares at $119.53$726,125Mar 27, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCeleste Beeks MastinDirector7,614 shares at $105.24$801,297Nov 24, 2025
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+97.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+97.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.39.0% vs 9.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 6%
2025 sits 128% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.4% a year for the price and +10.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Recent long-duration public works awards strengthen backlog visibility, yet elevated debt after refinancing amid ongoing unprofitability forms the core weakness.
Main risk: Elevated debt after refinancing threatens the ability to sustain unprofitable operations until new backlog projects deliver steadier earnings.
Granite's joint venture recently secured the Big Creek Tunnel contract, adding a multi-year water infrastructure project to its backlog and deepening exposure to public works. At the same time the firm carries elevated debt after refinancing while operations stay unprofitable. Will the new long-duration awards deliver steadier earnings before leverage becomes the bigger constraint, or will balance sheet demands continue to dominate?
Compare Granite Construction Incorporated with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 791 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−36.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)−5.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)12.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)23.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.82× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.47× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.00× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.8× · Pricier than median
PEG0.12× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)59· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Granite Construction Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GVA
Frequently asked questions
Is Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $76.23 versus a price of $120.52, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GVA?
Our model-based fair value for Granite Construction Incorporated is $76.23 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $120.52.
What is the quality score of GVA?
Granite Construction Incorporated has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $76.23 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $55.76, optimistic scenario $101.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Granite Construction Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $76.23, about 37% lower versus a price of $120.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $55.76, optimistic scenario $101.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
Granite Construction Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Granite Construction Incorporated pay a dividend?
Granite Construction Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of 0.11% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Granite Construction Incorporated pays a dividend of $0.13 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1990. The payout ratio is 2.6% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 3.0%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 57.63 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Granite Construction Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GVA use?
Our models discount Granite Construction Incorporated at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Granite Construction Incorporated that is +9.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Granite Construction Incorporated grew +4.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Granite Construction Incorporated (+9.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.27 %: that much free cash flow Granite Construction Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Granite Construction Incorporated it is $76.23 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $120.52. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Granite Construction Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GVA trades above its calculated fair value: price $120.52, fair value $76.23, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GVA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($120.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($76.23). For Granite Construction Incorporated the two are $44.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Granite Construction Incorporated worth?
The market values Granite Construction Incorporated at about $5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $120.52; our models calculate a fair value of $76.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GVA?
Our models span a range for Granite Construction Incorporated: cautious scenario $55.76, base $76.23, optimistic $101.48 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $120.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GVA?
The PEG ratio of Granite Construction Incorporated is 0.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Granite Construction Incorporated (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −21.7%, debt of 0.82 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GVA from its 52-week high?
Granite Construction Incorporated trades at $120.52, about 25% below its 52-week high of $160.08 and 23% above the low of $98.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $76.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Granite Construction Incorporated?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Granite Construction Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $120.52, calculated fair value $76.23 (−37%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GVA calculated?
We run Granite Construction Incorporated through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $76.23 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Granite Construction Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $120.52. Our model-based fair value is $76.23, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Granite Construction Incorporated right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($101.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($55.76 to $101.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) come from?
Earnings per share at Granite Construction Incorporated grew +7.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.6 %, EBIT margin +2.3 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Granite Construction Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
The market capitalisation of Granite Construction Incorporated is $5.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Granite Construction Incorporated is 1.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
Earnings per share at Granite Construction Incorporated are $−4.32. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
The dividend yield of Granite Construction Incorporated is 0.1% (payout 2.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 3.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
The net margin of Granite Construction Incorporated is −5.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Granite Construction Incorporated is −21.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Granite Construction Incorporated is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
The operating margin of Granite Construction Incorporated is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
Revenue at Granite Construction Incorporated is growing +23.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)?
Earnings per share at Granite Construction Incorporated are growing −96.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) carry?
The net debt of Granite Construction Incorporated is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026