Heineken (HEIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Heineken stock €69.22, price €84.02, that is 17.6% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €60.80 – €97.28 · fair‑value band €39.93 – €89.45 · the €84.02 price screens above the €69.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks.
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It sells its products under the Heineken, Heineken 0.0, Heineken Silver, Amstel, Moretti, Tiger, Desperados, Edelweiss, Lagunitas, Orchard Thieves, Windhoek, Dos Equis, Red Stripe, Kingfisher, Bintang, Gosser, Affligem, Mort Subite, Strongbow, Stassen, Bulmers, Old Mout, Savanna, Turbo King, Tecate, Lagunitas Hoppy Refresher, Bia Viet, Tiger Crystal, Birra Moretti, Harar, Cruzcampo, Bernini, Legend Stout, Beavertown, Stëlz, Texels, Ladrón, Bandida, Stibitzer, El Aguila, and Murphy's brands.
In addition, the company engages in rental of pubs and bars; wholesale activities; and pub management and technical services. The company offers its products to retailers, wholesalers and distributors, bars, restaurants, clubs, cafes, and hotels.
Heineken N.V. was incorporated in 1864 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken N.V. is a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V.
Stock analysis
Heineken (HEIA) currently trades at €84.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €69.22, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €71.56 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the €84.02 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €17.14, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €39.93 (bear) to €89.45 (bull), the price of €84.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Heineken reported revenue of €28.8B in FY2025 versus €22.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.9B in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €46.1B Large · P/E ratio 20.5 · P/S ratio 1.57 · EPS (TTM) €4.10 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 7.7% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at −18%, HEIA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€39.93Fair Value €69.22Bull€89.45
Price €84.02 · Downside -17.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.85 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.6% vs 2.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.8% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (73 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Global scale and brand distribution deliver a moderate moat, yet limited innovation and family governance weaken execution consistency and durability.
Main risk: Shifting preferences among younger consumers and health trends could further reduce alcoholic beer volumes in Europe, hitting sales and margins in the company's core profit region.
Bull case: By accelerating its shift to premium and no-alcohol offerings while expanding in Asia, Africa and Latin America, Heineken could offset European volume losses and sustain overall profitability.
Bear case: If European consumption continues its structural decline without adequate offsets from other regions or categories, the company could face sustained margin pressure and reduced scale in its key market.
Heineken delivered organic volume growth of nearly 5 percent in the third quarter, led by premium brands and Asia. The new CEO nevertheless stresses the need for sharper execution and stronger accountability to convert these strengths into steadier results. Our models see it as overvalued. Will the premium shift and regional momentum outweigh the execution shortfalls?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 54 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−17.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.1% · Above median
Return on assets3.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)10.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.84× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.56× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heineken Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HEIA
Frequently asked questions
Is Heineken (HEIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €69.22 versus a price of €84.02, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HEIA?
Our model-based fair value for Heineken is €69.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €84.02.
What is the quality score of HEIA?
Heineken has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heineken (HEIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €69.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €39.93, optimistic scenario €89.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heineken stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €69.22, about 18% lower versus a price of €84.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €39.93, optimistic scenario €89.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heineken (HEIA)?
Heineken reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €29.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Heineken pay a dividend?
Heineken currently shows a dividend yield of 2.29% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Heineken (HEIA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Heineken would have to grow free cash flow by +7.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HEIA use?
Our models discount Heineken at 8.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Heineken that is +7.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Heineken (HEIA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Heineken grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies +7.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Heineken (HEIA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Heineken (+7.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Heineken (HEIA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.66 %: that much free cash flow Heineken produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Heineken (HEIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heineken it is €69.22 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €84.02. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heineken stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HEIA trades above its calculated fair value: price €84.02, fair value €69.22, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HEIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€84.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€69.22). For Heineken the two are €14.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heineken worth?
The market values Heineken at about €46.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €84.02; our models calculate a fair value of €69.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HEIA?
Our models span a range for Heineken: cautious scenario €39.93, base €69.22, optimistic €89.45 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €84.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HEIA?
Heineken trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €69.22 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 23.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 2.6, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
What is the PEG ratio of HEIA?
The PEG ratio of Heineken is 1.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heineken (HEIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heineken (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 12.1%, debt of 0.84 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HEIA from its 52-week high?
Heineken trades at €84.02, at its 52-week high of €84.02 and 33% above the low of €63.41 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €69.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heineken?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken Holding, Constellation Brands, Inc, Tsingtao Brewery Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heineken stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €84.02, calculated fair value €69.22 (−18%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HEIA calculated?
We run Heineken through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €69.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Heineken itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heineken (HEIA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €84.02. Our model-based fair value is €69.22, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heineken right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€39.93 to €89.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Heineken (HEIA) come from?
Earnings per share at Heineken grew +0.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.6 %, EBIT margin −2.3 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Heineken
How large is the market capitalisation of Heineken (HEIA)?
The market capitalisation of Heineken is €46.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heineken (HEIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heineken is 1.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heineken (HEIA)?
Earnings per share at Heineken are €4.10 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heineken (HEIA)?
The dividend yield of Heineken is 2.3% (payout 46.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heineken (HEIA)?
The net margin of Heineken is 7.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heineken (HEIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heineken is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heineken (HEIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heineken is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heineken (HEIA)?
The operating margin of Heineken is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heineken (HEIA)?
Revenue at Heineken is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heineken (HEIA)?
Earnings per share at Heineken are growing +54.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Heineken (HEIA) carry?
The net debt of Heineken is €15.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026