Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hess Midstream Partners LP stock $41.87, price $29.96, upside +39.8%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.42 – $40.97 · fair‑value band $19.44 – $59.27 · the $29.96 price screens below the $41.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Hess Midstream LP acquires, owns, operates, and develops midstream assets and provide fee-based services to sponsor, its subsidiaries, and third-party customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Gathering; Processing and Storage; and Terminaling and Export.
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The Gathering segment owns natural gas gathering and compression systems; crude oil gathering systems; and produced water gathering and disposal facilities.
Its gathering system consists of approximately 1,430 miles of high- and low-pressure natural gas and natural gas liquids gathering pipelines with capacity of approximately 685 million cubic feet per day; crude oil gathering system comprises approximately 615 miles of crude oil gathering pipelines; and produces water gathering system that includes approximately 360 miles of pipelines in gathering systems.
The Processing and Storage segment comprises Tioga Gas Plant, a natural gas processing and fractionation plant located in Tioga, North Dakota; Mentor Storage Terminal, a propane storage cavern and rail, and truck loading and unloading facility located in Mentor, Minnesota; and Terminaling and Export segment that owns Ramberg terminal facility, the Tioga rail terminal, crude oil rail cars, and other Dakota access pipeline connections, as well as Johnson's Corner Header System, a crude oil pipeline header system; and other DAPL connections.
Hess Midstream LP was formerly known as Hess Midstream Partners LP and changed its name to Hess Midstream LP in December 2019. Hess Midstream LP was founded in 2014 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM) currently trades at $29.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.87, implying the stock looks roughly 28% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $45.59 per share, and 13 of the 25 models we run sit above the $29.96 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $14.31, and 12 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $19.44 (bear) to $59.27 (bull), the price of $29.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hess Midstream Partners LP reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was $353M in FY2025, compounding +66.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.7B Mid · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 2.62 · EPS (TTM) $2.92 · Dividend yield 10.3% · Net margin 23.2% · Return on equity 151% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 82 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 40%, HESM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$19.44Fair Value $41.87Bull$59.27
Price $29.96 · Upside +39.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.7% vs −2.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 62%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−10.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.9% a year for the price and −12.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The typical midstream asset base supports stable operations while elevated debt remains the key threat to long-term durability.
Main risk: Chevron could reduce drilling activity or renegotiate contract terms in the Bakken, lowering throughput volumes and fees for Hess Midstream's gathering, processing and terminaling services.
Bull case: Hess Midstream could secure additional third-party volumes and expand in the new DJ Basin assets to diversify away from Chevron dependence and stabilize cash flows.
Bear case: If Chevron significantly cuts Bakken activity or shifts focus elsewhere, Hess Midstream might see sustained volume declines and pressure on its fee-based revenues despite contract extensions.
Hess Midstream will gain full independence and new DJ Basin assets once it completes the transaction that retires Chevron's nearly 40 percent stake. The accompanying Bakken contract revisions extend terms through 2045 yet cut fees from 2027 onward, which resets total EBITDA lower even as the smaller share count supports per-unit metrics. Will the added basin diversification and potential third-party volumes offset the reduced Bakken revenue, or will the lower fees dominate the cash flow profile going forward?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+39.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)150.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)45.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)63.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−3.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)10.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity6.58× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B11.87× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)8.10× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)18.0× · Pricier than median
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Is Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.87 versus a price of $29.96, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HESM?
Our model-based fair value for Hess Midstream Partners LP is $41.87 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.96.
What is the quality score of HESM?
Hess Midstream Partners LP has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.87 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.44, optimistic scenario $59.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hess Midstream Partners LP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.87, about +40% upside versus a price of $29.96 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $19.44, optimistic scenario $59.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
Hess Midstream Partners LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Hess Midstream Partners LP pay a dividend?
Hess Midstream Partners LP currently shows a dividend yield of 10.30% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hess Midstream Partners LP pays a dividend of $3.09 per share a year, a dividend yield of 10.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 5, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2017. The payout ratio is 54.6% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 106%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.84 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hess Midstream Partners LP would have to grow free cash flow by -4.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HESM use?
Our models discount Hess Midstream Partners LP at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hess Midstream Partners LP that is -4.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hess Midstream Partners LP grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -4.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hess Midstream Partners LP (-4.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.93 %: that much free cash flow Hess Midstream Partners LP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hess Midstream Partners LP it is $41.87 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $29.96. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hess Midstream Partners LP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HESM trades below its calculated fair value: price $29.96, fair value $41.87, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HESM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.87). For Hess Midstream Partners LP the two are $11.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hess Midstream Partners LP worth?
The market values Hess Midstream Partners LP at about $6.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $29.96; our models calculate a fair value of $41.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HESM?
Our models span a range for Hess Midstream Partners LP: cautious scenario $19.44, base $41.87, optimistic $59.27 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $29.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HESM?
Hess Midstream Partners LP trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.87 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 5.4 (reported for FY2025: 10.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 2.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 11.9, P/S 8.1, EV/EBITDA 16.6.
What is the PEG ratio of HESM?
The PEG ratio of Hess Midstream Partners LP is 1.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hess Midstream Partners LP (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 150.7%, debt of 6.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HESM from its 52-week high?
Hess Midstream Partners LP trades at $29.96, about 27% below its 52-week high of $40.97 and at the low of $29.96 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hess Midstream Partners LP?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hess Midstream Partners LP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $29.96, calculated fair value $41.87 (+40%), Quality Score 48/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HESM calculated?
We run Hess Midstream Partners LP through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $41.87 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Hess Midstream Partners LP currently trades 28% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $29.96. Our model-based fair value is $41.87, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hess Midstream Partners LP right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (48/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($19.44 to $59.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM) come from?
Earnings per share at Hess Midstream Partners LP grew −0.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin +7.2 %, tax rate −3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hess Midstream Partners LP
How large is the market capitalisation of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
The market capitalisation of Hess Midstream Partners LP is $6.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hess Midstream Partners LP is 2.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
Earnings per share at Hess Midstream Partners LP are $2.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
The dividend yield of Hess Midstream Partners LP is 10.3% (payout 54.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 106%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
The net margin of Hess Midstream Partners LP is 23.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hess Midstream Partners LP is 151% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hess Midstream Partners LP is 21.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
The operating margin of Hess Midstream Partners LP is 63.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
Revenue at Hess Midstream Partners LP is growing −3.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM)?
Earnings per share at Hess Midstream Partners LP are growing +1.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM) carry?
The net debt of Hess Midstream Partners LP is $3.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026