Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Robinhood Markets Inc stock $47.60, price $87.41, that is 45.5% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 46% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 68/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +36.1 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 39.0% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
Wide moat73/100
Mixed vs. peers(5/12)
Insiders bought $55.3M (6M) · sold $196.2M
Some data
Fair value $47.60 · Strongly overvalued (−45.5%)
Negative coverage
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Earnings miss from faster expense growth and lower crypto and interest income🚩State curbs on event contracts🚩Dependence on Citadel for order flow
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.89 – $152.46 · fair‑value band $29.91 – $74.42 · the $87.41 price screens above the $47.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates financial services platform in the United States. The company's platform allows users to invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and American depository receipts.
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It offers fractional trading, recurring investments, access to investing on margin, fully-paid securities lending, cash sweep, instant withdrawals, retirement program, around-the-clock trading, joint investing accounts, event contracts, future contract services, and short selling.
The company also provides various learning and education solutions comprise Snacks, an accessible digest of business news stories for a new generation of investors; Learn, which is an online collection of guides, feature tutorials, and financial dictionary; Newsfeeds that offer access to free, premium news from sites from various sites, such as Barron's, Reuters, and Dow Jones.
In addition, the company offers In-App Education, a resource that covers investing fundamentals, including why people invest, a stock market overview, and tips on how to define investing goals, as well as allows customers to understand the basics of investing before their first trade; and Crypto Learn and Earn, an educational module available to various crypto customers through Robinhood Learn to teach customers the basics related to cryptocurrency.
Further, it provides Robinhood credit cards, cash card and spending accounts, and wallets. Robinhood Markets, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.
Stock analysis
Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD) currently trades at $87.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.60, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $83.06 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the $87.41 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.22, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $29.91 (bear) to $74.42 (bull), the price of $87.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Robinhood Markets Inc reported revenue of $4.5B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +25.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $79.8B Large · P/E ratio 39.2 · P/S ratio 15.7 · EPS (TTM) $2.17 · Net margin 39.0% · Return on equity 21.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% · Operating margin 48.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −46%, HOOD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$29.91Fair Value $47.60Bull$74.42
Price $87.41 · Downside -45.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.84 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $55.3M, on Jun 5, 2026. Over the same period, 8 people sold shares worth $196.2M.
SaleDaniel Martin Gallagher JrChief Legal Officer14× since Nov 24, 2025: 290,000 shares, avg. $115.43$33.5MNov 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDara BazzanoChief Accounting Officer4,473 shares at $85.32$381,615Nov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBaiju BhattDirector11× since Nov 7, 2025: 2,257,860 shares, avg. $116.96$264.1MOct 21, 2026
SaleVladimir TenevChief Executive Officer, Director6× since Jan 5, 2026: 2,000,000 shares, avg. $110.37$220.7MOct 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleShiv VermaChief Financial Officer8× since Feb 17, 2026: 45,204 shares, avg. $92.96$4.2MSep 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleOluwadara Johnson TresederDirector2× since Jul 2, 2026: 5,625 shares, avg. $120.00$675,000Sep 8, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSteven M. QuirkChief Brokerage Officer6× since Dec 3, 2025: 165,652 shares, avg. $109.16$18.1MSep 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePaula LoopDirector8,336 shares at $120.00$1.0MJul 2, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyMeyer MalkaDirector3× since May 28, 2026: 680,000 shares, avg. $81.33$55.3MJun 5, 2026
SaleJeffrey Tsvi PinnerChief Technology Officer8× since Dec 5, 2025: 46,798 shares, avg. $98.73$4.6MApr 27, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 38 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+51.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.9%
’19
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.4% (2020) → 46.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.1% a year for the price and +20.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate platform scale supports brokerage reach, yet intense competition and limited durable differentiation leave results highly exposed to trading-volume swings.
Main risk: State regulators could enforce gambling laws against sports event contracts, limiting or blocking a major revenue contributor for Robinhood.
Bull case: Robinhood could secure clearer federal rules or expand non-event products like AI agents and subscriptions to offset any state restrictions on contracts.
Bear case: Fragmented state enforcement could curtail event contract volumes and related revenues, forcing greater reliance on more competitive core brokerage services.
Robinhood posted record trading volumes across stocks, options and event contracts in the third quarter, yet cryptocurrency revenue fell 55 percent and net interest income declined. Operating expenses grew faster than revenue, producing an earnings miss. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will diversification into new products stabilize results enough to outweigh swings in crypto and interest income, or will the business stay highly sensitive to trading activity?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−45.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)39.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)48.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.8% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)39.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B8.72× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)15.70× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow49.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.55× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)59· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)86· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $47.60 versus a price of $87.41, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HOOD?
Our model-based fair value for Robinhood Markets Inc is $47.60 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $87.41.
What is the quality score of HOOD?
Robinhood Markets Inc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $47.60 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.91, optimistic scenario $74.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Robinhood Markets Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $47.60, about 46% lower versus a price of $87.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $29.91, optimistic scenario $74.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
Robinhood Markets Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Robinhood Markets Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +32.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +36.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HOOD use?
Our models discount Robinhood Markets Inc at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Robinhood Markets Inc that is +32.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Robinhood Markets Inc grew +36.1 % a year. The price currently implies +32.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Robinhood Markets Inc (+32.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.03 %: that much free cash flow Robinhood Markets Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Robinhood Markets Inc it is $47.60 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $87.41. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Robinhood Markets Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HOOD trades above its calculated fair value: price $87.41, fair value $47.60, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOOD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($87.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($47.60). For Robinhood Markets Inc the two are $39.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Robinhood Markets Inc worth?
The market values Robinhood Markets Inc at about $79.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $87.41; our models calculate a fair value of $47.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOOD?
Our models span a range for Robinhood Markets Inc: cautious scenario $29.91, base $47.60, optimistic $74.42 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $87.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HOOD?
Robinhood Markets Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $47.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 8.7, P/S 15.7.
What is the PEG ratio of HOOD?
The PEG ratio of Robinhood Markets Inc is 1.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Robinhood Markets Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 21.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOOD from its 52-week high?
Robinhood Markets Inc trades at $87.41, about 39% below its 52-week high of $142.48 and 34% above the low of $65.16 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $47.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Robinhood Markets Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Robinhood Markets Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $87.41, calculated fair value $47.60 (−46%), Quality Score 68/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOOD calculated?
We run Robinhood Markets Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $47.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Robinhood Markets Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $87.41. Our model-based fair value is $47.60, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Robinhood Markets Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($74.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($29.91 to $74.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Robinhood Markets Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
The market capitalisation of Robinhood Markets Inc is $79.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Robinhood Markets Inc is 15.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
Earnings per share at Robinhood Markets Inc are $2.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
The net margin of Robinhood Markets Inc is 39.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Robinhood Markets Inc is 21.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Robinhood Markets Inc is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
The operating margin of Robinhood Markets Inc is 48.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
Revenue at Robinhood Markets Inc is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +48.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD)?
Earnings per share at Robinhood Markets Inc are growing −16.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD) carry?
The net debt of Robinhood Markets Inc is $11.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026